Transcript Slide 1

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group
November 5, 2010
Update on Census Info
and Planning Products/
Getting Ready for TAZ
Delineation
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Topics
Boundaries
3-year CTPP/ACS
5-year CTPP
TAZs/TADs
PUMS/PUMAS
Ed Christopher
Resource Center Planning Team
Federal Highway Administration
4749 Lincoln Mall Dr. Rm 600
Matteson, IL 60443
708-283-3534
[email protected]
http://www.electiondataservices.com
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Boundaries -- Some Background
Urban Areas
Urbanized Areas
(50,000+)
circa 1950
Urban Clusters
(2,500 to 49,999)
circa 2000
http://rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu/
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Transportation Perspective
(Census Defined)
Urbanized Area (UZA)
Federal-Aid (Adjusted)
Urban[ized] Area
(FAUA)
Metropolitan Planning
Area (MPA)
Non-Attainment Area
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm
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Some Implications for Transportation
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New / Retired MPOs
New / Retired TMAs
Expanded MPOs & TMA
Changed Roadway Classifications
Data Reporting and reports
Funding and Financial Issues
Outdoor Advertising
Hinges on Transportation Bill
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm
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What’s an MPO? A TMA?
NARC - Status Quo
AASHTO Somewhat Vague
FHWA - Internal
House - T+I
Committee, HR ____
100K - Threshold
Senate -
Grandfathering
200K - Project Selection Authority
1 Million+ Special Funding and Requirements
http://www.ampo.org/assets/685_finalampopdfoverviewappro.pdf
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Timing
2009 SAFETEA-LU expired
New Bill Expected (2011) ???
2010 Fed Register-Comments on UA Criteria
2012 New UAs Released (Springtime)
Register Notice on Proposed Criteria for Urban Area
Boundaries (August 24, 2010)
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-20808.pdf
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-20808.htm
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Highlights of Federal Register Notice
o Use of Tracts as Analysis Unit (Initial
Phase)
o Reducing Jumps from 2.5 miles to 1.5
o Use of a National Land Cover Data Base
o Changing Airport threshold from 10K to
2,500 enplanements
o Eliminating the Central Place Concept
o Establishing Minimum pop living
outside of group quarters
o Splitting Large Areas
o Naming Criteria
Comments due November 22, 2010
ACS Data Releases
Data
Type
Population
Size of Area
Annual
65,000+
3-year
Period
20,000+
5-year
Period
Tract and
Block Group
Data for the Previous Year Released in:
2006 2007
2008
2009 2010 2011
2012+
And then the CTPP
Census Transportation Planning
Products (CTPP) Program
The CTPP is an umbrella program of Census
related data products, custom tabulations,
training, technical assistance, and research for
the transportation community
CTPP History
http://www.trbcensus.com/articles/ctpphistory.pdf
CTPP then and Now
CTPPackage
CTPProducts Program
Prior to ACS
Post ACS
The CTPP program now includes
• Many more Data products
• Training and technical assistance
• On-call user support
• Training classes and web
seminars
• Research
Federal Technical Advisory Group
TRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (800 strong)
Quarterly Newsletter -- Outreach -- Several Websites
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A Lot is Coming at Us
3-year CTPP Data Product
CTPP 3-Year
September 2010
Oct/Nov 2010
XXVXX
2006, 2007, 2008
20,000 Pop. Areas
(County, Place, PUMAs)
Actual Flows
http://trbcensus.com/products
The 3-year Product Design
2008 Geography
Product Structure
Nation (US Total)
3-Parts
State
State-County
State-County-MCD
State-Place
State-PUMA (red = 2000 geo.)
State-POW PUMA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
MSA – EACH Principal City
Part 1- Place of Residence
Part 2- Place of Work
Part 3- Flows between
Home and Work
On-Line Data Retrieval
Extraction Software ~ Raw
Data Download
http://ctpp.transportation.org/Documents/CTPP_custom_tabulations_based_on_3yracs2006_2008.xls
The 3-year Product
County to County Flows are on the street
ftp://ftp.camsys.com/temp/outgoing/CTPP/New%20CTPP%20ACS/
3-year CTPP Product Summary
Highlights
Based on CTPP2000
Tables
Many NEW Univariate
Tables
More Age Tables
Streamlined Race Tables
More HH and HH
Lifecycle Tables
More English
Proficiency Tables
Way more Flows Tables
Low Lights
Incomplete Coverage
Rounded
Reduced Number of
Crosstabs with Mode
-- Travel time
-- Household income
-- Vehicle availability
-- Age
-- Time leaving home
Tables will have
Suppression
-- Means based on 3 values
-- 3 records in Flow
MOEs
Some Issues to be aware of
3-year ACS (2006, 2007, 2008)
What year is the
data?
Period Estimate
brought forward
to year of release
What Data to
use?
Reliability vs.
Currency
Significance Testing--Why do it?
MOE, MOE,
MOE
Source: CTPP Data Profiles http://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/overview.aspx
http://www.edthefed.com/presentations/significance%20testing.ppt
Working with ACS
A Compass for
Understanding And Using
ACS Data
l Set of user-specific
handbooks
l Train-the trainer
materials
l E-learning ACS Tutorial
l Annotated Presentations
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/Compass/compass_series.html
What data should I use?
Travel Times
for the 6counties in
NE Illinois
1. To compare with 1970, ‘80, ‘90 and 2000 Travel Times?
2. To compare with my town of 52,000 people?
3. To validate my 2008 vintage travel demand model?
Finally A word about Collapsing
Collapsing
CTPP products collapsing schema
And remember I noted Incomplete Coverage?
NE Illinois (2009 3-year ACS)
Gray = Less than 20K
people and No data
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“Where’s the beef Data?”
“It Looks Like Swiss Cheese”
5-year CTPP Data Product
New
Geography
Requires implementation of new disclosure avoidance
(“masking”) techniques
The are DRB rules
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Cell Means and
aggregates require 3
unweighted records
For Pt 3 Flow Tables:
3 unweighted records
for each table, each cell, with the exception
of the 1-way Means of Trans. table
3 unweighted records for the marginal's in
any cross-tabulation with Means of Trans.
5-year CTPP Data Product
NCHRP 08-79 ($550K)
Producing Transportation Data Products from
the ACS that Comply With Disclosure Rules
NCHRP is funded by State DOTs SP&R
Project schedule: Jan 2010-July 2011
Need results to be applied to 2006-2010 ACS for the
5-year CTPP (delivery to software vendor in
summer 2012)
Westat, Tom Krenzke, PI
“NEW” TAZs Traffic Analysis Zones
• Defined by MPOs and State DOTS
• Software Deployed
TAZ
(Spring 2011)
Traffic Analysis
Zone
Traditional
Size
Traffic Analysis
District
20,000
population
• Developed in Summer 2011
TAD
• TAZs will nest with TADs
• GIS equivalency process
• Funded under Consolidated Purchase
http://download.ctpp.transportation.org/TAZ_Rules/TAZ%2
0Delineation%20Business%20Rules_CTPP%20Final.pdf
What is an equivalency process?
Take the map at the
right and using the
states boundaries make
9 contiguous regions
It’s the same for TAZs
Blocks
cluster into
TAZs
A real world example
● Census Blocks
will make up TAZs
● TAZs will nest with
TADs
● TADs will nest in
Counties
●Nesting with Tracts
is optional
TAZ Size
CB recommends
~600 persons
corresponds to the minimum
threshold for 2010 Census
Block Groups
Threshold is guideline not a requirement
TAZs may be defined with fewer than 600
residents or workers
Data reliability and availability improves as
population size increases
Bigger is Better
The Schedule
Nov 2010 - Agencies verify contact names
(AASHTO Website)
Jan 2011 - Final delivery of Software by Caliper
Feb 2011 - Web-based training
Feb 25 and Feb 28
March through April 2011 - Delivery of software and
Census 2010 data and geographic files (Rolling basis)
3- Months to delineate TAZ/TADs
June through July 2011 - Files returned to CB
Geography
Creating TAZs
Florida Standard
Urban Transportation
Model Structure
White Paper on Recommended Approach
to Delineating TAZ
http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/reports/
FDOT_TAZ_White_Paper.pdf
http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/mtffiles/PPT_12_TAZ%20White%20Paper_NOV07_FINAL_CS_Keli_Wu.ppt
5-year Geography and Flows
• Asymmetrical
Flows
• Small Areas
defined by MPOs
in MPO areas and
States Elsewhere
• Tracts are
Defaults for Small
Areas
• Default TADs
under discussion
PUMAs? -- What are they?
Public Use Microdata Sample
Standard Tabs
ACS
Sample
PUMS Records
PUMS data is based on
individual census records
and is available only at
large geographic areas.
Think of the PUMS dataset
as the raw, disaggregate
census sample data, at a
large enough geographic
level necessary to protect
the confidentiality of the
census respondent.
PUMAs are the zones used from PUMS data
Why are PUMAs Important?
NE Illinois (2008 pop estimate)
Let’s Look at Annual Data
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Annual Data
65K+
Note the areas in gray
We call this
Swiss Cheese
Chicago
Why are PUMAs Important?
NE Illinois (PUMAs)
Tabulation Area for ACS
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Represent 100K
Complete Coverage
Smaller than Counties
NO Swiss Cheese
How many PUMAs should this area have?
City of Chicago 2000 PUMAs
Why are PUMAs
Important?
- Defines areas for analysis
- Tabulation Area for ACS
- Custom Tabulation
Who Defines Them?
- The Community
- Led by State Data Center
When are They Defined?
- Summer 2011
- Criteria out Spring 2010
2,896,016 (2000 Pop)
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/puma5pct.htm
PUMA Resources
IPUMS maintains the PUMS
data back to the 1850 census
and has and online table
generator
http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Minnesota Population Center
CTPP Webinar on IPUMS
http://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/webinardirectory.aspx
Compass Handbook by Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/handbo
oks/ACSPUMS.pdf
What else?
5 year regular ACS
Fed Register Notice on ACS 5-Year
Data Product Plans
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-23373.pdf
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-23373.htm
Block Groups not on
FactFinder and loaded
with suppression
Data due out in
December 2010
’05, ‘06, ’07. ’08, ’09
Data Years
Census Bureau E-Tutorial and ACS
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_users/e_tutorial/
Just in
American FactFinder to get
facelift in January
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/tour.html
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And now for the aftermath
To Learn more about the CTPP
http://www.dot.gov/ctpp
http://www.TRBcensus.com
http://ctpp.transportation.org
Join the CTPP List Serve
http://www.trbcensus.com/maillist.html
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