Transcript Back to the Future

Presentiment
The retro-causality debate
Experimental approaches
And
Theory
Dick Bierman, University of Amsterdam
Towards a science of Consciousness, Stockholm, May 3-7, 2011
Synopsis of this talk
•Bem,
The D.
experimental
precursor
‘Presentiment’
(2011). Feeling
the future,
Journal of
– Method and
& Results
Personality
Social Psychology, 100, 407-425.
• Bems approach
– Method & Results, example retroactive facilitation of recall
9 experiments
– Criticism suggesting retrocausal effects.
• Statistical
• Ontological
• CIRTS
– Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry
• New experiments
– Necker Cube: retroactive interference
– Retroactive recognition
Presentiment
a feeling about
an event in the
future …
Emotion Study (1999)
Globisch, J., Hamm, A.O., Estevez, F., and Ehman, A. (1999).
Psychophysiology, 36, pp. 66-75.
7 sec
150 msec
Fixation stimulus
6850 msec
Blank Screen
response
anticipation
time
Published Results
Erotic
Baseline had been set at
stimulus-onset
All signals are clamped to 0
there.
Calm
Results re-analysis raw data
100
Anim al Fear
ALL DATA
Study
N
= 38
POOLED:
Erotic
80
60
Baseline set at -7 seconds
calm
erotic
anim
als
40
20
Anomaly
Calm
0
STIMULUS
-20
Samplen um be r
sec)
( 0 .1
Presentiment
• Anticipatory physiology triggered by ‘future’?
• Simple stimulus response paradigm
• Comparing physiology within subjects
between conditions
e.g. anticipation of picture, random emotional
or neutral
Presentiment variables
• Dependent Variables
– Skin Conductance
– HR
– EEG, CNV
– BOLD
– Blinks, pupil dilation, eye movement
• Independent Variables
– Pictures, sounds, shocks, slotmachine
Presentiment Meta-analysis
•
•
•
•
•
37 studies, 15 different main authors
Mean effect size: 0.29
Combined p <10^-9
Filedrawer fail safe: 670
Gambler’s fallacy
• Mossbridge et al (2011). In press.
Bem’s approach
• Behavioral measures
– No physiology because of global replication
• Reversed standard Psychological Paradigms
– Manipulation after the measurement
•
•
•
•
Decision making
Habituation
Affective Priming
Retroactive memory facilitation
Procedure retroactive facilitation of
recall
3. Practice exercise
2.Surprise Free
Recall
1.Visualize words
To
Towhich
whichcategory
categorybelongs
belongs
Carpenter
…........................
Carpenter
Random
subsample
of words
Results Bem studies
• Hypothesis Retroactive Facilitation of Memory
– Improved recall performance on words that got
later extra exercise.
• Results Retroactive Facilitation of Memory
– (N=150) mean effect size: 0.30 (p<0.01)
• Results all 9 studies
– All Bem studies mean effect size: 0.22 (p<10^-10)
Criticism
• Statistical
– Using Bayesian stats the null hypothesis is still to
be preferred (Wagenmakers et al, 2011)…..
– Over-analyses are not corrected for….
– Combination of experimental results is not
allowed….
• Theoretical
– Temporal Causality violation is not allowed……
CIRTS
• Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry
• Symmetries in physics
• In EM theory
– Retarded and Advanced Solution
– Initial & Boundary conditions
» Conscious information processing as
boundary condition restores time symmetry
• Coherence to account for individual differences
Procedure retroactive facilitation of
recognition
4. Extra exercise
3. Recognition
Test
1. Attention
task
2.Filler task
Did you see this word
before?
Carpenter
.
Carpenter
Learn these words
Carpenter
Hammer
Trousers
….
Random
subsample
of words
Retro-recognition results
Necker Cube study:
retroactive interference
The Necker Cube experiment
interference
Change randomly into
opaque
Top or Bottom view
Top view is
experienced
Top view
duration
First
button press
time
Second
button press
when experience switches
19
Retroactive interference Results
Followed by:
(difference = 129, p<0.03)
N=153
Effectsize = 0.17
Results split for experiment
The paradoxes
• Formally RetroCausality equivalent with bw
time travel.
• Formally Time Symmetry predicted
• But ……. philosophical ‘grandfather like’
paradoxes
– Synchronicity protection postulate (Hawkins)
• Never allow time travel near grandfather
• Never allow psi to become useable.
Conclusion
• Retrocausality is physically not impossible
– See also Helmut Schmidt in Foundations of Physics
• Empirical evidence needs independent
replication.
– But replication runs against the ‘Synchronicity
Protection’
• Experiments have to be set up to avoid
paradoxes (can’t use the information from the
future)
Thanks
• The Amsterdam & Groningen Universities
• Bial Foundation
• Eva Lobach, Stephen Whitmarsh, Jacob Jolij,
Victor Lamme and many students