Transcript No Slide Title

Wind Energy
Technology
Herb Sutherland
Wind Energy
Technology Dept.
Sandia National
Laboratories
www.sandia.gov/wind
page 1
Current Wind Industry Market
• Size
• Costs
–
–
–
–
page 2
System < $3/lb
Blades < $5/lb
~ $0.75/Watt
$0.03-0.05/kWh
–
–
–
–
1.5-5.0 MW
Towers: 65-100 m
Blades: 34-50m
Weight: 150-500t
Wind Cost of Energy is Falling
100
6000
90
80
5000
70
60
4000
50
3000
40
30
2000
20
10
1000
0
1980
0
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
*Year 2000 dollars
Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements
page 3
U.S. Cumulative Capacity (MW)
Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)
7000
Some Machines Currently on
the Market
These four suppliers
account for 75% of the
world market
Gamesa (Spain)
Vestas – NEG Micon
(Denmark)
GE (US)
No. 5
Bonus/Siemens
(Denmark/Germany)
page 4
Enercon
(Germany)
Size of the Global Market
The Global Wind Power Market in US$
60,000
12,000
48,000
9,000
36,000
6,000
24,000
3,000
12,000
0
0
2003
2004
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
page 5
Cumulative mill. US$
mill. US$
Expected development 2004-2008
15,000
2005
2006
2007
Forecast offshore
Offshore 2003
Forecast onshore
Cumulative market
2008
Onshore 2003
Growth of Wind Energy
Capacity Worldwide
Actual
60000
*
Projected
Jan 2004 Cumulative MW
Rest of World
Rest of World
North America
North America
Europe
Europe
*
Rest of World = 3.897
North America =
Europe
6,691
= 28,706
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
* Updated March 2004
page 6
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
AWEA/EWEA Press Release 3/3/03
EWEA press release 10/3/04
Installed capacity in Germany
Installed capacity in Spain
No. of MW (1987-2003)
8,000
3,150
16,000
1,400
7,000
14,000
1,200
6,000
1,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
1,000
2,700
12,000
10,000
1,800
8,000
1,350
6,000
900
4,000
450
2,000
0
0
0
1990
Installed MW
1993
1996
Forecast
1999
2002
Cumulative
Cumul. forecast
Installed MW
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
Cumulative
Cumul. forecast
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
Installed capacity in Denmark
Installed capacity in the USA
No. of MW (1981-2003)
No. of MW (1981-2003)
3,250
1,800
600
550
3,000
2,750
1,600
6,400
500
450
2,500
2,250
1,400
5,600
1,200
4,800
400
2,000
1,000
4,000
350
300
1,750
1,500
800
3,200
250
1,250
600
2,400
200
150
1,000
750
400
1,600
100
50
500
250
200
800
Installed MW
page 7
Forecast
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
Cumulative
Cumul. forecast
Installed MW
Forecast
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
Cumulative
20
03
20
01
19
99
2002
19
97
1999
19
95
1996
19
93
1993
19
91
1990
19
89
1987
19
87
1984
0
19
85
1981
7,200
0
19
83
0
19
81
0
MW
650
Cumulative MW
MW
Forecast
Cumul. forecast
Cumulative MW
1987
0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
MW
2,250
MW
1,600
Cumulative MW
18,000
Cumulative MW
No. of MW (1990-2003)
3,600
RESOURCE
New Mexico
1400
N Dakota
Texas
Kansas
S Dakota
Montana
Nebraska
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Idaho
Rest of U.S.
1200
TWh
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Ref.: Elliott, et al, “An Assessment of the
Available Windy Land Area and Wind Energy
Potential in the Contiguous United States,”
August 1991, PNL-7789
page 8
NM Wind Farms
• 204 MW PNM Wind Energy
Center
– House, NM
– PNM
• 80 MW Caprock Wind Ranch
– Quay county, NM
– Cielo Wind Power/Xcel
• 120 MW San Juan Mesa
– Elida, NM
– Padoma Wind Power/Xcel
page 9
DOE Wind Energy Program
2002 Plan
Class 6 (High Energy) Sites
Technology Viability
Low Wind Speed
Technology
Primary Program Activities:
• Public/private partnerships
Program
Goals
Goal A
By 2012, COE from large
systems in Class 4 winds
3 cents/kWh onshore or
5 cents/kWh offshore
Distributed Wind
Technology
Primary Program Activities:
• Public/private partnerships
Goal B
By 2007, COE from
distributed wind systems
10-15 cents/kWh in Class 3
(Program Strategic
Performance Goal)
Supporting Research
and Testing
Primary Program Activities:
• Enabling research
• Design Review and Analysis
• Testing Support
page 10
Technology Application
Systems
Integration
Primary Program Activities:
• Models
• Ancillary costs
• Utility rules
• Grid capability
Goal C
By 2012, complete
program activities for
grid access, operating
rules, ancillary service
tariffs, and transmission
expansion plans that
support industry’s 2020
capacity goal.
Technology
Acceptance
Primary Program Activities:
• State outreach
• Federal loads
• Rural wind development
• Native Americans
• Power partnerships
Goal D
By 2010, 100 MW
installed in at least
16 states.
Supporting Engineering
and Analysis
Primary Program Activities:
• Standards and certification
• Field verification test support
• Technical issues analysis and communications
• Innovative technology development
Class 4 (Good) Sites
Load Centers
Impact of Cost Goals
60
*Growth trajectory from NEMS using AEO 2001 assumptions with 3
cent/Class4/2007 technology
Current Class 4 cost:
4.3 cents/kWh
50
GW
40
Competitive Class 4 Technology*
Opportunity
Class 4 goal (2012):
3.0 cents/kWh
30
20
High Renewables
10
EIA/AEO 2001 Renewables Cases
Baseline (15 GW in 2020)
• No technology breakthrough
• Class 6 Plateau
Reference
2001
2005
Program Goal:
3 cents/kWh
Class 4 COE
in 2012
page 11
2010
 Expands
2015
2020
resource base 20-fold
 Reduces average distance to load 5-fold
 35 GW additional opportunity by 2020
Offshore Wind
US DOE Program Goal: 5 cents/kWh,
Shallow Water Offshore in the year 2012
• European Goal – 10 GW offshore
• British Islands
– Enormous resource
– 1.4 GW in the planning stages
• US has limited shallow resource
• US Early Interest:
– Cape Cod (Cape Wind)
– Long Island (LIPA)
• Deep Water Research
– Base and foundation costs
– Floating structures
page 12
How Do We Get to Low-Cost,
Low-Wind-Speed Technology?
(Thresher: 5/02)
Technology Improvements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
page 13
Estimated COE Improvement
Larger-scale 2 - 5MW - (rotors up to 120m)
0%  5%
Advanced rotors and controls –
(flexible, low-solidity, higher speed, hybrid carbon-glass
and advanced and innovative designs)
-15%  7%
Advanced drive train concepts (Hybrid drive trains with low-speed PM generators and
other innovative designs including reduced cost PE)
-10%  7%
New tower concepts - (taller, modular, field assembled,
load feedback control)
-2%  5%
Improved availability and reduced losses - (better controls,
siting and improved availability)
-5%  3%
Manufacturing improvements - (new manufacturing methods,
volume production and learning effects)
-7%  3%
Region and site tailored designs (tailoring of larger 100MW
wind farm turbine designs to unique sites)
-5%  2%
-44%  32%
Wind Turbine Systems
Conventional Drive Train
Hub
Gear Box
Direct Drive System
Pitch System
Yaw System
Generator
page 14
Tower
Blade
How Do We Get to Low-Cost,
Low-Wind-Speed Technology?
(Thresher: 5/02)
Technology Improvements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
page 15
Estimated COE Improvement
Larger-scale 2 - 5MW - (rotors up to 120m)
0%  5%
Advanced rotors and controls –
(flexible, low-solidity, higher speed, hybrid carbon-glass
and advanced and innovative designs)
-15%  7%
Advanced drive train concepts (Hybrid drive trains with low-speed PM generators and
other innovative designs including reduced cost PE)
-10%  7%
New tower concepts - (taller, modular, field assembled,
load feedback control)
-2%  5%
Improved availability and reduced losses - (better controls,
siting and improved availability)
-5%  3%
Manufacturing improvements - (new manufacturing methods,
volume production and learning effects)
-7%  3%
Region and site tailored designs (tailoring of larger 100MW
wind farm turbine designs to unique sites)
-5%  2%
-44%  32%
Sandia Wind Energy Research
Primary Responsibility – Blades
 Blades are the only uniquely wind-turbine component
 Blades produce all the energy
 Blades produce all the system loads
Sandia Research Elements
• Advanced Blade Control – both
active and passive (adaptive blade)
• Materials
• Manufacturing
• Analysis Tools
• Validation Testing & NDI
• Field Testing and Instrumentation
• Reliability
page 16
Blades Are Getting Bigger
50.5 Meter Blade
(GE 3.6 MW turbine)
Blade Size over Time
page 17
Comparison of Weight Trends
WindStats Data & Preliminary Designs
SAND2004-0074, Innovative
Design Approaches for Large Wind
Turbine Blades; Final Report, TPI
page 18
New Materials: New Issues
•
Carbon fiber forms
– Cost vs. Performance
– Tow Size
– Pre-preg vs. fabrics
•
•
•
•
Processing and fiber
straightness
Carbon/Glass hybrids
Carbon-to-Glass Transitions
Resin systems
7.5 mm
Additional
fiberglass
page 19
3.0 mm
Carbon
layers
Design Tools:
Validation and Testing
Design, analyze, fabricate,
and test composite material
structures to develop new
approaches to design and
analysis of blades
page 20
Sandia Partners in Blade
Manufacturing
• TPI Composites
• TPI and Mitsubishi have a joint venture
– Vienteck in Juarez, Mexico
• Manufacturing blades for 1-2 MW
Mitsubishi machines
• 40m long blade now being tested
• TPI patented SCRIMP® technology
page 21
Design Studies identify the
inner-span for thicker airfoils
•
A thicker airfoil opens up new manufacturing opportunities
– Constant thickness spar cap
Eolidyn Rotor Systems
– Pre-manufactured spars (e.g., Pultrusion)
Planf orm A / 50 meter blade
50. 0
1.5
51. 5
164.0
4.9
169.0
R otor Speed (rpm)
Wind Speed (m/s )
Weights are reduced substantially without other (material)
changes
R adi us
(m)
2.575
7.725
12. 875
18. 025
23. 175
28. 325
33. 475
38. 625
43. 775
48. 925
Stati on
(m)
1.075
6.225
11. 375
16. 525
21. 675
26. 825
31. 975
37. 125
42. 275
47. 425
C hord
R atio
0.0517
0.0775
0.0860
0.0758
0.0664
0.0574
0.0487
0.0402
0.0319
0.0237
Twi st
(deg)
29. 5
19. 5
13. 0
8.8
6.2
4.4
3.1
1.9
0.8
0.0
C hord
(m)
2.664
3.992
4.429
3.901
3.418
2.957
2.509
2.072
1.643
1.221
Traditional Design
Bas eline
Thi ck est
Struc turall y Opt imized
Thi ck nes s Thi ck nes s Thi ck nes s Thi ck nes s Thi ck nes s Thi ck nes s
R atio
(mm )
R atio
(mm )
R atio
(mm )
100.00%
2664
100.00%
2664
100.00%
2664
42. 00%
1676
62. 00%
2475
66. 00%
2634
28. 00%
1240
48. 00%
2126
54. 00%
2392
24. 00%
936
40. 00%
1561
47. 00%
1834
23. 00%
786
33. 00%
1128
35. 00%
1196
22. 00%
651
26. 00%
769
27. 00%
798
21. 00%
527
21. 00%
527
21. 00%
527
20. 00%
414
20. 00%
414
20. 00%
414
19. 00%
312
19. 00%
312
19. 00%
312
18. 00%
220
18. 00%
220
18. 00%
220
Thicker Airfoils
3000
2500
2000
Tip
Blade
Thic knes s
( mm)
R adi us
R atio
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%
Root
Stati on
N umber
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Blade Thickness
•
Blade Lengt h (m) (f t)
H ub R adius (m) (f t )
R otor R adius (m) (f t)
1500
1000
500
0
0
2
4
6
8
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Blade Station (m)
Blade Station
page 22
1
1
R ey n
N um
(R e
1.92E
3.79E
5.73E
6.57E
7.15E
7.43E
7.37E
6.97E
6.24E
5.16E
Examples of Flatback Airfoils
Previous extent
of flat trailing
edges on
blades
New concepts in flatback airfoils
page 23
Adaptive Blades
Passive
Bend-Twist Coupling
Active
Micro-tab Assembly & Motion
extender
slider
base
page 24
Field Testing
Site Monitoring and Turbine Loads Research
ATLAS
System
Layout
page 25
Wind Energy: Questions
page 26
Growth of Wind Energy
Capacity Worldwide
Actual
60000
*
Projected
Jan 2004 Cumulative MW
Rest of World
Rest of World
North America
North America
Europe
Europe
*
Rest of World = 3.897
North America =
Europe
6,691
= 28,706
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
* Updated March 2004
page 27
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
AWEA/EWEA Press Release 3/3/03
EWEA press release 10/3/04
Blade Size over Time
50+ meter
34 meter
23 meter
20 meter
12 meter
9 meter
7.5 meter
5 meter
1978
page 28
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
50.5 Meter Blade
(GE 3.6 MW turbine)
page 29
Offshore Wind Development
•
Annual Global Wind Power Development
Actual 1990-2003 Forecast 2004-2008 Prediction 2009-2013
28,000
•
21,000
MW
Offshore Projection
•
14,000
7,000
•
0
1990
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
page 30
2003
Prediction
Offshore (Forecast)
2008
Forecast
2013
Existing capacity
•
Germany and Denmark have
limited land area and extensive,
shallow, windy, offshore area
The UK has onshore NIMBY and
is hoping to go immediately
offshore
The US East Coast is the largest
electrical load – the best wind
resources are offshore
Great Lakes offer a similar
opportunity
Much of the US opportunity is in
deeper water (>50m)
Wind Power Basics
WindPower  AC V
1
2
CP max Drag  0.3
CP max Lift  0.59
3
P 
Effectively, the maximum
drag-driven power coefficient
is 0.15 because only the downwind motion of the blade
produces power
Lift-driven machines are only limited
by the Betz Limit (the maximum
energy extraction coefficient)
page 31
Wind Power output is
proportional to wind speed
cubed.
Turbine Power Basics
Power Curve
3000
Power (kW)
2500
2000
Energy vs. Wind Speed
1500
Wind, Energy
1000
500
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Windspeed (m/s)
Turbine power
Betz Power
Power vs. Wind Speed
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Windspeed (m/s)
15 mph (6.8 m/s) average wind speed
page 32
Rayleigh Probability
Weibull Probability
Turbine Energy
Weibull Cp
Weibull Betz
35
40
Wind Turbine Manufacturers
Top-10 Suppliers in 2003
96.8% of the total market
ENERCON (GE)
14.6%
GAMESA (ES) 11.5%
GE WIND (US) 18.0%
NEG MICON (DK)
10.2%
BONUS (DK) 6.6%
REPOWER (GE) 3.5%
VESTAS (DK) 21.7%
Others 3.2%
Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2004
page 33
NORDEX (GE) 2.9%
MITSUBISHI (JP)
2.6%
SUZLON (Ind) 2.1%
Horn’s Reef,
Denmark
page 34
Why Move Offshore?
• Higher-quality wind resources
• Reduced turbulence
• Increased wind speed
• Economies of scale
• Avoid logistical constraints on turbine
size
• Proximity to loads
• Many demand centers are near the
coast
• Increased transmission options
• Access to less heavily loaded lines
• Potential for reducing land use and
aesthetic concerns
page 35
Horns Rev Offshore Wind Farm
North Sea: Off Danish Coast
Wind turbine type
Vestas V80 - 2 MW
Total wind farm output
160 MW (80 turbines)
Expected annual production
600,000,000 kWh
Rotor diameter
80 m
Hub height
70 m
Mean wind speed (62 m)
9.7 m/s
Water depth
6-14 m
Distance from land
14-20 km
Wind farm area
20 km2
Total project costs
DKK 2 billion
(EUR 270 million)
page 36
Northeastern U.S. Offshore
Potential
page 37
Wind Resource
West Coast of the US
page 38
Reverse Evolution…
page 39
GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW
Turbines
page 40