Transcript Stockport

Local Economic Assessment (LEA)
Rochdale
February 2011
The LEA: What’s New?
— The LEA endorses and reinforces key findings of the
MIER … but nearly 2-years on, the LEA also tells us
about:
• The current & forecast future impact of the recession
• The composition & risk profile of the public sector
across GM
• The spatial dimensions of growth down to local level
LEA Timetable
• GM LEA incl. Local Authority chapters:
• Presentation based on draft final reports
• Final version early 2011 – taking into account feedback
• Additional Studies:
• Advanced Manufacturing – end Feb.
• Manchester Airport – end Feb.
• Worklessness (Uni. of Oxford analysis of DWP data) –
May/June
Impact of the recession
• GM harder hit but forecast to recover better than UK
Employment 1998 to 2020
INDEX
INDEXED EMPLOYMENT, 2008=100
110.0
100 = 2008
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Greater Manchester Forecasting
Model, 2010
UK
GREATER MANCHESTER
0
4.5
9
GM Employment Growth 2003–08
Distribution Centre South
of Heywood
0
5
10
miles
Rochdale – a
driver of growth
outside the
conurbation core
Stake Hill
Distribution Centre
North of Middleton
Middlebrook
Manchester
City Centre
Traf f ord
Park
Conurbation
core – main
driver of growth
Change in employment 2003-2008 in
Financial and Professional Services
1,000 to 8479
(9)
500 to 1,000 (15)
250 to 500 (20)
0 to 250 (891)
-250 to
0 (638)
-500 to -250 (20)
-1000 to -500
(5)
-5,905 to -1,000 (2)
Flixton
© Crown Copy right.
All rights reserv ed.
Licence No 100019918 2010
Source: ABI, 2010
Restructuring continues in Rochdale
The biggest employers in the borough
are Robert McBride plc, JW Lees & Co.
and UK Car Group (Carcraft).
PUBLIC ADMIN:
5.7%
CONSTRUCTION:
6.3%
EDUCATION:
6.9%
LOGISTICS: 7.2%
KEY (1998–2008)
(Source: ABI)
High Growth
Growth
Decline
High Decline
A growing representation of
business administration
companies in the borough, such
as PC World
MANUFACTURING: 16.7%
FINANCIAL &
PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES: 10.8%
HEALTH: 13.8%
FOOD & DRINK:
1.0%
LIFE SCIENCES: 2.2%
ENGINEERING: 6.7%
Source: ABI, 2010
RETAIL: 10.2%
Growing private sector 2003-08
•
In contrast to many parts of GM North, Rochdale has seen a net shift to
the private sector (although overall growth still lags GM and UK).
6.0%
5.5%
4.9%
5.0%
% EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
4.0%
3.7%
3.0%
2.4%
2.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.0%
ROCHDALE
GM
GB
-1.0%
-1.3%
-2.0%
Source: ONS, 2010
PUBLIC
PRIVATE
NB – data does not separate out voluntary and community sector, which is expected to be of growing importance.
Return to growth to be driven by key service
growth sectors, such as Professional Services
(PERCENTAGE)
TO 2020
2010
GROWTH
EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
2010
TO 2020
(PERCENTAGE)
60.0
Key growth sectors forecast to
be Professional Services and
Creative and Digital Industries
40.0
Professional Services
ICT Digital
Sport
20.0
Auto
Financial Services
Aviation
Health
Retail
Logistics
0.0
Construction
Creative / Digital / New Media
Hospitality
& Tourism
Environmental Tech
Education
Food & Drink
Public Admin
-20.0
Biotechnology
Engineering Core Manufacturing
BIGGEST GROWTH SECTORS
FOR ROCHDALE FORECAST TO
BE PROFESSIONAL SERVICES,
LOGISTICS, COMMUNICATIONS
AND CONSTRUCTION.
-40.0
Even with continued restructuring,
Manufacturing forecast to continue to
decline
Source: GMFM, 2010
-60.0
Above average concentration of high-growth
businesses – second highest concentration
2.42%
2.02%
2.02%
1.99%
2.00%
1.90%
GM AVERAGE 1.82%
1.67%
1.63%
NW AVERAGE 1.73%
1.48%
1.50%
1.28%
1.26%
1.00%
0.50%
Source: Business Link North West, 2010
S
TO
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ID
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H
A
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B
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W
IG
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FF
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O
A
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C
H
ES
TE
R
AL
E
0.00%
M
OF BUSINESSES
AS PERCENTAGE
HIGH-GROWTH
HIGH-GROWTH
AS PERCENTAGE
OF BUSINESS BASE
2.50%
Rochdale not over-reliant on public sector
• Less public sector jobs in Rochdale than most other GM
North districts
40.0
PERCENTAGE
EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT
PERCENTAGE
35.0
GB RESIDENT
AVERAGE
30.0
GB WORKPLACE AVERAGE
25.0
20.0
15.0
U
R
Y
B
R
M
A
S
N
C
H
AL
F
ES
TE
O
R
D
M
O
LD
H
A
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ID
S
M
E
TA
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LT
O
N
B
AL
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R
O
C
H
D
N
W
IG
A
P
TC
O
K
S
TR
A
FF
O
R
D
O
R
T
10.0
WORKPLACE BASED
2008
Source: ABI (2008) and APS (2009), 2010
RESIDENCE BASED
2010
GB AVERAGE WORKPLACE
GB AVERAGE RESIDENT
Rochdale a net exporter of labour – particularly to
Manchester, and significant number of residents travel to
work outside GM
Rochdale a net exporter of labour – particularly
to
ROSSENDALE
1,000 from Rochdale
900 from Rochdale
Manchester,
and
significant
number
of
residents
1,800 to Rochdale
To Rochdale (under 1%)
travel to work outside GM
LANCASTER
BURY
4,000 from Rochdale
3,000 to Rochdale
BOLTON
From Rochdale (under 1%)
700 to Rochdale
ROCHDALE
29K residents commute out
(44% of working residents)
20K commute in (28% of
working population)
Net flow = - 10K
WIGAN
From Rochdale (under 1%)
900 to Rochdale
OLDHAM
SALFORD
6,000 from Rochdale
4,500 to Rochdale
1,800 from Rochdale
1,000 to Rochdale
mporter of labour from Rochdale
MANCHESTER
TRAFFORD
1,000 from Rochdale
To Rochdale (under 1%)
exporter of labour to Rochdale
rce: ONS Annual Population survey
. Only flows of 1% or more are shown.
ures have been rounded.
Source: ONS (2007), 2010
15,000 from Rochdale
2,700 to Rochdale
TAMESIDE
From Rochdale (under 1%)
1,300 to Rochdale
Large areas of Rochdale are attractive to ‘Wealthy
Achievers’
Rochdale
But worst levels of deprivation in GM North
100%
1.9%
10.9%
Least
Deprived
3.0%
7.6%
8.9%
13.3%
2.8%
3.5%
7.6%
4.5%
12.8%
14.8%
28.9%
18.8%
16.0%
80%
29.0%
20.5%
13.2%
22.4%
13.3%
22.5%
23.4%
16.7%
16.0%
20.0%
29.2%
60%
21.6%
24.6%
26.7%
24.2%
16.7%
17.7%
27.0%
23.0%
40%
20.0%
17.4%
66.8%
21.7%
20%
46.5%
42.2%
40.3%
39.4%
17.9%
18.1%
34.0%
Most
Deprived
32.0%
18.3%
11.6%
10.9%
0%
BO
N
O
LT
Y
BU
R
TE
S
E
R
H
C
AN
AM
AL
H
O
LD
R
O
D
H
C
E
SA
M
MOST DEPRIVED
Source: IMD (2007), 2010
SECOND QUINTILE
T
D
R
O
LF
THIRD QUINTILE
O
KP
O
ST
C
R
E
ID
ES
M
TA
FOURTH QUINTILE
D
FO
AF
R
IG
W
AN
TR
LEAST DEPRIVED
Severe deprivation focused around the core of
the borough
Index of Multiple Deprivation
in Rochdale's LSOAs in 2007
Smallbridge and Firgrove
Spotland and Falinge
Central Rochdale
Bamford
Heywood
Rochdale
Kingsway
Milkstone and Deeplish
Balderstone and Kirkholt
RANK OF IMD 2007
Outside most deprived 20%
Within most deprived 20%
Within most deprived 10%
Within most deprived 3%
Middleton
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved.
License number 100019918. 2010
Resident skills deficit remains despite recent
improvements
PERCENT OF WORKING AGE POPULATION
100%
21.2%
26.7%
29.8%
80%
21.2%
18.8%
18.4%
60%
21.9%
21.4%
21.1%
40%
19.8%
18.7%
18.2%
20%
15.9%
14.4%
12.6%
ROCHDALE
GREATER MANCHESTER
UNITED KINGDOM
0%
Source: APS (2009), 2010
NO QUALS
LEVEL 1
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 4+
Examples of recent skills improvements
• GCSE (5+ A*-G) have improved and now at national
averages. Performance for pupils achieving 5+ A*-C
grades, including English and Maths, improved rapidly.
• Level 2 and Level 3 outcomes by 19 years of age have been
improving year on year – although still behind national
averages.
• Apprenticeship starts have rapidly increased in 2009/10
(+37% on 2008/09)
• Marked improvement for adult skills outcomes, reflecting
years of effort to address the skills deficit.
Challenges
• Deprivation – high levels of unemployment and
worklessness amongst Rochdale residents.
• Whilst skills are improving, continued resident skills deficit
hinders employability and limits quality of employment
opportunities available to many.
• Restructuring. Rochdale’s biggest sector – Manufacturing
– is in decline.
• Effects of the recession – Rochdale must continue to
support private sector growth in much more challenging
economic conditions.
Opportunities
•
Key assets – particularly significant employment sites at Heywood
and Kingsway – the most important strategic site in GM North.
•
Strategic business location – on the main east–west motorway and
M60, providing strong external connectivity.
•
Growing private sector, including high proportion of high-growth
firms. Need to continue to support such enterprise and high-value
activities.
•
Quality of life offer – desirable residential locations on edge of
Pennines.
•
Further connectivity improvements (esp. to conurbation core) –
supporting Rochdale residents find work and making the borough
more attractive as a place to live for commuters. Metrolink will help
in this regard (with connection to Kingsway also).
The GM LEA including the Rochdale chapter are available at:
www.neweconomymanchester.com
Dr Alexander Roy
Head of Economic Analysis
[email protected]
Building Economic Resilience across Greater
Manchester
The Emerging Strategic Context
Mike Emmerich
Chief Executive, New Economy
The Coalition has introduced a series of significant
changes to the economic development landscape…
Comprehensive
Spending Review
LEPs
Welfare reform and DWP
Work Programme
Local Growth
White Paper
RDAs
Localism Bill
RGF
Local authority
funding settlement
Skills White
Paper
A new economic development landscape is starting to emerge …
designed to reduce costs and increase private sector involvement
The emerging landscape in skills & employment
shifts primary responsibility to the private sector
• EMPLOYMENT: The DWP Single Work Programme incentivises private
sector contractors to move people into jobs
• Loss of funding and powers for authorities (Working Neighbourhoods Fund)
• Public sector role becomes more one of influencing contractors and
ensuring integration with other local services and activities – as well as
managing the impact of reduced levels of benefit spending in the economy
• SKILLS: Primary responsibility for skills provision placed in the hands of the
market – to colleges and other providers
• In GM discussions are underway to form a three way relationship between
providers, businesses and the public sector to ensure skills provision meets
the long term needs of businesses and the economy.
• The LEP will be pivotal in this arrangement
Key responsibilities around business support,
inward investment and trade have been centralised
• Most RDA responsibilities have been centralised nationally, however much
of the delivery of activity will be sub-contracted locally
• The LEPs will provide strategic input and leadership but the LEP is not a
business support delivery body … the onus is on businesses to use
networks and associations to formulate ideas, influence policy and lead
economic growth
• GM partners are seeking to develop a business support proposition low-cost, high value-added, private sector-led initiative to ensure GM's
businesses have access to the best possible business support services
• MIDAS and Marketing Manchester will promote GM internationally,
fostering international links and attracting inward investments
• Science and innovation is a key priority and GM are seeking to attract a
Technology & Innovation Centre
The funding environment has changed significantly,
requiring an adapted approach
• RDA funding will cease to exist - European funding through ERDF will
continue without RDA involvement
• The Regional Growth Fund provides funding for projects delivering economic
growth outcomes
• The Evergreen fund requires a strong return on investment - and aims to
attract public sector pension fund investments as well as private sector
investment, creating a fund of significant scale.
• An increased emphasis will be placed on projects delivering a return on
investment as well as quantifiable and evidenced economic growth outcomes
• A single investment framework is being developed to provide a transparent
and consistent means of assessing GM projects
In this new policy environment the organisational
landscape is changing significantly
Regional tier (RDAs)
Mix of national, sub-regional and
local activity
Ten local authorities + AGMA &
BLC
GM Combined Authority & LEP +
increased collaborative working
Identified GM Strategic Priorities &
produced Delivery Plan
Integrating GM organisations to
drive delivery of GM Priorities
The Greater Manchester Local Enterprise
Partnership (LEP) is being established
• The GM Local Enterprise Partnership proposal has been approved by
government and a Shadow LEP is already in place
• The LEP will drive strategy, set direction and identify growth opportunities
• Recruitment of the full LEP Board is starting, with national
advertisements, in order to be in place from April
• The Board will have a private sector Chair and majority private sector
membership, alongside AGMA representatives
• Private sector members will be selected through an open process, based on
skills and experience rather than representation of particular interest groups
– application details at www.gmleprecruitment.com
• The GM LEP proposal outlines areas of focus for the LEP - however the
LEP will have scope to shape and define its own agenda
The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (CA)
will work in concert with the GM LEP to drive the
GM agenda
• The GM Combined Authority legislation is currently being finalised, and
will be in place from April
• The CA will be the primary accountable body with the potential to take on
responsibility for coordinating economic development and regeneration and
transport provision across Greater Manchester
• While the LEP defines strategy and sets direction the CA can mobilise local
authority resources to deliver the GM agenda
The GMS continues as the focus of Greater
Manchester’s economic priorities
• Based on MIER, and other evidence, the GMS identifies the 11 priorities to
improve Greater Manchester’s long term economic performance
• Agreed by AGMA and with central government … and now endorsed by the
Shadow LEP
• Individual authorities have a key role to play in achieving the GMS in order
to benefit from improved GM economic performance
GMS PRIORITIES
• Focus on Early Years to maximise impact of
interventions
• Better Life Chances in the most deprived areas
• Increase the proportion of highly skilled people
• Increase international connectivity of GM’s firms
• A Low Carbon Economy – GM specialising in built
environment
• Attract, retain and nurture the best talent
• The Housing Market – Attractive and sustainable
places to live
• Significantly improve transport
• More effective governance
• Expand and diversify economic base
• Building a Sense of Place
GM economic development organisations need to
be aligned and adapted to drive delivery
• The GMS provides the focal point and drives the activity of all GM’s
economic development organisations
• The LEP will become the principal body driving this strategy
• An integrated business plan across GM organisations will ensure delivery
activity is aligned and resources are used effectively and efficiently
• The Combined Authority will offer a similar platform for integration and
alignment of local authority activity
• It is crucial that these organisations work in concert on these key priorities
for Greater Manchester
• … as well as offering support to authorities in identifying and addressing
specific issues of local relevance and importance
Sub-regions in the north west are collaborating to
ensure regional priorities and assets are retained
• A number of regional transition work streams are underway – with subregions and NWDA working closely to ensure critical activity is not ‘lost’
• These groups are accountable to the north west Regional Leaders Board
• The groups are focusing on …
• Regional ‘case-making’ and lobbying
• Identifying and supporting key sectors in the region
• Identifying and retaining key assets – people / data / systems
• Cost efficiencies in research, analysis economic forecasting
In conclusion …
• The GMS remains at the core of Greater Manchester economic strategy
• The LEP and Combined Authority provide Greater Manchester with new
levers to drive forward this strategy
• However the policy and funding environment has changed significantly and
this presents many challenges … as well as opportunities
• Engaging with business becomes ever more important – as does the need
for commercial returns on investments
• Ensuring that GM level organisations work effectively and collaboratively
with local authorities is crucial to achieving our aims