Transcript Food Security Analysis Unit

Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Deyr 2010/11
Information for Better Livelihoods
January 26, 2011
Bay/Bakool
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal
Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data
Locations – Bay and Bakool
•
FS Field Analysts travelled to all
districts for field observations of
crop, livestock and market situation
• Food Security information was
collected through teleconferencing
using enumerators, key informants
and focus group.
• Nutrition data was obtained
through partners and key informants
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Bay Region:
2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral
High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low
Potential)
 Primary sources of income of poor: selfemployment, employment, sale of
livestock & livestock products and sale of
crops.
 Primary sources of food of poor: own
production and food purchase
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: cattle,
sheep/goats
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Bakool Region:
1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral)
 Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock &
livestock products
 Primary food sources of poor: food purchase
 Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat
and cattle
2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low
Potential and Bakool Agropastoral)
 Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income:
the combination of agricultural labour, selfemployment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale
of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of
food: own production (crop and livestock products)
and purchase.
 Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main
sources of income: livestock and livestock product
sales, self-employment (bush products) and
agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase
and own production.
Climate
Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall
Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay
and Bakool regions. The rains were extremely poor
in most areas of the two regions
•
Start of Deyr rainy season: Effectively started in the
third decade of October but interrupted by a long
dry spell in November; restarted on the third decade
of November in localized areas of Bay and some
insignificant rainfall was experienced in Bakool
region.
•
Temporal and spatial distribution:
Rainfall
performance in terms of intensity and duration,
distribution and coverage was below normal in both
regions. In most areas of the two regions Deyr rains
were 20-40% of normal as indicated by the satellite
imagery and confirmed by the field staff; pockets of
the two regions received 60-80% of normal rainfall.
•
Dry spell from 1st dekad of November up to the end
of 2nd dekad of December with one to two localised
showers in the last dekad of December without a
significant impact on crop and pasture conditions.
Climate
Vegetation Conditions - Bay
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover
Baidoa Standardized difference from LTA
RFE
CNDVI
70% range
1.0
0.0
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
-2.0
deyr
-1.0
gu
Z-scores
2.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
deyr
70% range
gu
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
CNDVI
deyr
gu
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
RFE
gu
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
deyr
Z-scores
Dinsor Agro pastoral Standardized difference from LTA
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
Climate
Vegetation Conditions - Bakool
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover
Elberde Pastoral Standardized difference from LTA
2.0
RFE
CNDVI
70% range
0.0
-1.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
-3.0
deyr
-2.0
gu
Z-scores
1.0
2010
Years
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Years
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
70% range
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
CNDVI
deyr
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
RFE
deyr
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
gu
Z-scores
Tieglow Agro-pastoral Standardized difference from LTA
2010
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
•
The overall civil security situation in Bay
region was relatively stable, but political
confrontations b/w the opposing factions
were reported in Bakool.
•
Two heavy fightings in Sep/Aug. ’10 in the
area b/w Rabdhure and Yeed with
casualties (death and injury). No human
losses or injuries among civilians; limited,
temporary displacement occurred from
Rabdhure town to Burdhuhunle and
Garasweyne; however, the displaced
people returned back to their original
places after the fighting ceased.
 Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food
Security & Nutrition:
• Restriction of pastoral mobility.
• Disruption of cross-border trade.
• Restricted movement of goods affecting
both rural and urban areas.
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region
Deyr ‘10/11 Production in
MT
Districts
Deyr ‘10/11 as %
Deyr ‘10/11 as %
Total Cereal
of Deyr PWA
of Deyr ’09/10
(1995-2009)
Deyr ‘10/11 as
% of 5- year
average
(2005-2009)
Maize
Sorghum
-
1,400
1,400
5%
13%
10%
-
-
0
-
-
-
-
675
675
4%
8%
7%
-
600
600
4%
7%
7%
0
2,675
2,675
4%
8%
7%
Baydhaba
Buur Hakaba
Diinsoor
Qansax Dheere
Bay Deyr 2011 Total
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region
Deyr ‘10/11 Production in
MT
Districts
Rabdhure
Tayeglow
Wajid
Xudur
Bakool Deyr 2011 Total
Deyr ‘10/11 as Deyr ‘10/11 as
Deyr ‘10/11 as %
% of Deyr
% of 5 year
Total Cereal
of Deyr ‘09/10
PWA
average
(1995-2009)
(2005-2009)
Maize
Sorghum
-
24
24
12%
13%
7%
-
-
0
0%
0%
0%
-
48
48
14%
15%
11%
59
53
112
17%
19%
12%
59
125
184
8%
10%
7%
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates
Deyr ’10/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Bay Region
Bay Region
Deyr 2010 Production in MT
Cowpea
Sesame
Ground Nut
Total
Baydhaba
0
0
0
0
Buurhakaba
0
0
0
0
Diinsoor
0
0
0
0
Qansaxdheere
0
0
0
0
Total
0
0
0
0
Deyr ’10/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Bakool Region
Bakool Region
Deyr 2010 Production in MT
Cowpea
Hudur
0
Wajid
0
Teyeglow
0
Rabdhuurre
0
Total
0
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)
Regional Trend in Deyr
Cereal Production
(Bay Region)
Regional Trends in Deyr
Cereal Production
(Bakool Region)
Agriculture
Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010)
Annual Cereal
Production by
Season
(Bay Region)
Annual Cereal
Production by
Season
(Bakool Region)
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
1
1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Boodaan, Rabdhure,
Bakool, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10.
2. Sorghum Crop Failure with Limited Fodder
Harvest Isha, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10.
3. Sorghum Crop Failure. Carro Gaduud,
Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10.
2
3
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Map
Bay supplies sorghum to the
Bakool, Gedo, South, Central and
Northeast as well as refugee camps
in Kenya. Bakool mainly gets cereal
from Bay.
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Regional Trend in
Sorghum Prices
(Baidoa - Bay)
Factors influencing
sorghum prices:
• Sorghum crop failure in all
agropastoral livelihoods
• High sorghum demand (Bay)
Regional Trends in
Sorghum Prices
(Hudur - Bakool)
Agriculture
Labour Rates & Availability
Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate
Baidoa - Bay
Factors Influencing Wage Labour:
• High labour out-migration to Shabelle and
Juba regions for charcoal production and
agricultural activities in Shabelle riverine
Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate
Hudur - Bakool
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in Terms of
Trade: Labour to Sorghum
Baidoa – Bay
(6 kg/ daily wage)
Factor Influencing ToT decline:
• Significant increase in sorghum
prices.
Regional Trend in Terms of
Trade: Labour to Sorghum
Hudur – Bakool
(3 kg/daily wage)
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and
Livestock Migration, Deyr 2010/11
• Water availability is poor to average
in all livelihoods of both regions
• Poor to average pasture conditions in
all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool
regions
• Average to poor body condition for
camel and goats. Cattle and sheep
body conditions are deteriorating.
• Normal to abnormal migration in Bay
and abnormal in Bakool region.
Livestock
Water, Pasture, Livestock Migration, Conditions and Prices in Deyr 2010/11
Region
Bakool
Water
Poor to
average
Water Prices
Pasture
Average to high Poor
Livestock Body
Condition
Camel/Goats:
Average to poor
Livestock
Prices
Migration Pattern
Low
Abnormal
Low
Normal (Northern part)
Cattle/Sheep: Poor
Bay
Average to
Poor
Low (increasing) Poor to
Average
Cattle/Sheep: Poor
Camel/Goats:
Average
Abnormal (South)
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool
Region
Conception
(Deyr ’10/11)
Camel: Low
Cattle: Low
to none
Sh/Goats:
Low
Calving/kidding
(Deyr ’10/11)
Milk
production
(Deyr ’10/11)
Camel: Medium
Low for all
Cattle: Low
species
Sh/Goats: Medium
Expected
calving/
kidding
Jan – Jun ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)
Livelihoods
Camel: Medium Southern Inland
Cattle: Medium Pastoral
Sh/Goats: Low
Camel: Increased (102% of BL June 11)
Cattle: Decreased (21% of BL June 11)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (23% of BL June 11
Bakool Agro-pastoral Camel: Increased (80% of BL June 11)
Cattle: Decreased (36% of BL June 11)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (71% of BL June 11
Bakool
B/Bakool Agropastoral
Bay
Livestock Species
Low for All
Species except
Goats:
Medium
Camel: Medium
Cattle: Medium
Sh/Goats: High to
Medium
Camel/Goats:
Average
Cattle/Sheep:
poor
Camel: Medium B/Bakool AgroCattle: Low
pastoral
Sh/Goats:
Medium to Low
Cattle: Increased ( 35% of Baseline June 11)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (71% of Baseline
June 11)
Cattle: Increased (35% of BL June 11)
Sheep/goats: Near Baseline (91% as June 11)
Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices
Regional Average
Monthly Prices of Local
Quality Goat (Baidoa –
Bay)
Factors Influencing L.Goat
prices:
•High supply of livestock into
markets
•Poor livestock body condition
• Low demand for livestock after
the end of Hajj period.
Regional Average
Monthly Prices Local
Quality Goat (Hudur –
Bakool)
Livestock
Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade - Bakool
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade:
Cereal per Head of Local
Goat
( Baidoa - Bay)
Factors Influencing TOT
(goat to red sorghum):
• High cereal prices
• Decreased livestock prices
due to poor body conditions
and increased supply on
markets.
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade:
Cereal to Goat
( Hudur - Bakool)
Livestock
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos - Bakool
Mixed Livestock Body Condition.
Below Average Goat Body
Condition. Geliyo, Wajid, Bakool.
FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition,
Ceel Malable, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU,
Dec. ‘10
Average Camel Body Condition.
Dhurrey, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec.
’10
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Bay_Bakool: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
Most imported commodity
prices are relatively stable in the
last six months.
Factors Influencing Commercial
Import Prices:
• Relatively stable Somali Shilling
• Increased commercial imports
after the end of Monsoon season
•Removal of road check-points
between Mogadishu and
Bay/Bakool regions.
•Rehabilitation of roads (localized)
which improved accessibility.
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
( 2010)
Bakool
•NA due to insecurity
Agro-Pastoral
-----------------------------Bakool
Pastoral
•NA due to insecurity
Rapid MUAC
Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Health
Information
System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant
information – Key
driving factors
Morbidity= Outbreak of
whooping cough
reported in Huddur
Rabdure and Tieglow.
Measles cases reported
in Tieglow (source:
Somalia health sector
bulletin)
• Low immunization and
supplementation
coverage,
• Insecurity
•Shrinking of
humanitarian space
(Bakool AP, 2010, R=3)
______________
Rapid MUAC
assessment , 10
sites (Huddur ,
Wajid, Rabdhure
and Tieglow
District)
Proportion with
MUAC<12.5 or
oedema= 16.7%,
Proportion with
MUAC<11.5cm =
3.6%
(Dec 2010,
n=1100, R=2)
High levels (>40%)
and stable trends
(FSNAU partner
HIS, Jan – Dec
2010) (Bakool AP,
2010, R=3)
OTP: NA
High numbers with
increasing trends
of admission
(Bakool AP,
2010, R=3)
-----------------------
______________
----------------------
High levels (>20%)
and increasing
trends in the MCH
in the pastoral
livelihood of Bakool
(FSNAU partner
HIS, Jan – June
2010)
Rapid MUAC
assessment , 10
sites (Elberde,
Dec 2011,
n=1100, R=2):
Proportion with
MUAC<12.5 or
with Oedema=
23.5%
Proportion with
MUAC<11.5=
3.4
Summary of
analysis and
change from Gu
’10
Bakool AgroPastoral
Likely to be Very
Critical –
No change from
last Gu’10,
-----------------------Bakool Pastoral
Elbarde OTP
Closed
Elbarde district.
No health services,
and feeding centers,
•Morbidity= No outbreaks with season
norms but no
humanitarian
interventions are
available
•Insecurity
Likely to be Very
Critical –
No change from
last Gu 10,
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Bay
Nutrition Surveys
(2010)
NA due to insecurity
Agr
opo
ast
oral
Rapid MUAC
Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Rapid MUAC
Assessment, 16 sites
(Baidoa, Berdalle,
Dinsoor , Burhakaba
and Qansahdhere
Districts),
The Proportion with
MUAC<12.5cm or
Oedema=18.4%
Proportion with
MUAC<11.5 cm or
Oedema= 4.4 %
( Dec 2010, n=1769,
R=2),
Health
Information
System Info
High levels (>40)
and stable trends
(Jan- Dec’10)
(Bay region, 2010,
R=3)
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant
information – Key
driving factors
Summary of
analysis and
change from
Gu’ 10
High numbers with
increasing trends
of SFP admission
(Bay region, 2010,
R=3)
•Morbidity: Outbreak of
AWD, whooping cough
and Measles cases
reported in Bay region
•Likely to be Very
Critical – no
change from last
Gu’10
•Poor sanitation and
clean water,
•Low immunization and
supplementation
coverage
•Shrinking of
humanitarian space is
likely to impact
negatively on nutrition
and access to health,
water, sanitation,
income, food and
education
(Bay region, 2010, R=3)
Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010
Nutrition Situation Estimates, Jan 2011
IPC
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bakool
MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010
MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in AFLC, 25% Poor in HE; Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP 100%
Poor in AFLC; Bakool Agro-Past 100% Poor in AFLC. Risk Level of Watch for all
•
•
•
•
•
•
Acute malnutrition: greater than usual: Bakool Pastoral – sustained Very Critical, Bakool Agro-pastoral – deteriorated
from Serious to Critical
Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day
Water Access: Poor to Average
Destitution/Displacement: Integrated into rural communities
Coping: Sale of livestock products to increase income, increased livestock sales, labour migration to Juba/Shabelle,
seeking social support, increased self-employment, change in food consumption habits
Livelihood Assets: Crop production failure, poor rangeland and water conditions. However, livestock reproduction
increased due to the previous average to good conceptions, but the high livestock off-take in the coming Jilaal will offset
the increase.
Main Contributing Factors:
•
Poor Deyr ‘10/11 rains:

Deteriorated livestock conditions

Failed crop production and reduced/depleted cereal food stocks in most agro-pastoral areas
•
Deteriorated pasture and water conditions which led to abnormal migration pattern
•
Increased local cereal prices in all of Bay and Bakool markets since Nov. 2010
•
Deteriorated trend in household income and food access
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010
Affected Regions and District
Bakool
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Ceel Barde
23,844
4,000
3,000
6,000
3,000
Rab Dhuure
31,319
11,000
1,000
12,000
1,000
Tayeeglow
64,832
21,000
0
24,000
1,000
Waajid
55,255
18,000
0
20,000
0
Xudur
73,939
24,000
0
28,000
0
SUB-TOTAL
249,189
78,000
4,000
90,000
5,000
Grand Total
249,189
82,000
95,000
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Bakool
Estimated
Population by
Livelihood Zones
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanit
arian
Emergen
cy
(HE
Bakool Agro Pastoral
116,812
46,000
0
47,000
0
Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP
101,242
27,000
0
35,000
0
Southern Inland Past
31,135
5,000
4,000
8,000
5,000
SUB-TOTAL
249,189
78,000
4,000
90,000
5,000
Grand Total
249,189
82,000
95,000
IPC
Estimated urban population in AFLC & HE – Bakool by District
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Deyr 10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as %
of Urban population
Deyr 10/11
1,000
1,000
37
6,333
1,000
3,000
63
Tayeeglow
16,221
1,000
6,000
43
Waajid
14,439
1,000
6,000
48
Xudur
19,110
2,000
8,000
52
61,438
6,000
24,000
49
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Deyr 10/11
Ceel Barde
5,335
Rab Dhuure
District
Bakool
Sub-Total
IPC
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bay
MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010
MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: All livelihoods in Bay are in BFI phase with risk level of WATCH in post Deyr ’10/11 with
the exception of parts of Bay/Bakool agro-pastoral of Baidoa LP(1/4 part) and Burhakaba districts (1/3 part) are High Risk
to AFLC (25% of the poor)
•
Acute malnutrition: Very Critical
•
Food Access: Below average access and availability of food
•
Water Access: Access and availability of water is poor to average
•
Destitution/Displacement: Diffuse
•
Coping: Mild coping strategies
•
Livelihood Assets: Crop failure of Deyr ’10/11, high sorghum demand from the neighbouring regions, causing
reduction of cereal stock availability. Improved livestock holding levels, but livestock production is below
average as a result of poor pasture and water conditions in Deyr ’10/11
Main Contributing Factors:
•
Poor rains.
 Crop failure.
 Poor livestock body condition and production
•
Decline in household income and food sources
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010
Affected Regions and District
Bay
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Baydhaba/Bardaale
247,670
0
0
2,000
0
Buur Hakaba
100,493
0
0
1,000
0
Diinsoor
63,615
0
0
2,000
0
Qansax Dheere
81,971
0
0
3,000
0
493,749
0
0
8,000
0
SUB-TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
0
8,000
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Bay
Deyr 2010/11
Estimated Population
by Livelihood Zones
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanit
arian
Emergen
cy
(HE
Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral
Low Potential
178,683
0
0
8,000
0
Bay Agro-pastoral High
Potential
315,066
0
0
0
0
493,749
0
0
SUB-TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
0
8,000
IPC
Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE – Bay District
District
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Deyr 10/11
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Deyr 10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as %
of Urban population
Deyr 10/11
72,793
29,000
0
40
25,123
6,000
2,000
32
12,154
3,000
1,000
33
16,743
5,000
0
30
126,813
43,000
3,000
36
Bay
Baydhaba/Bardaale
Buur Hakaba
Diinsoor
Qansax Dheere
Sub-Total
The End