Transcript Hiran Region Gu 2011 Presentation

Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Gu 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
17th August 2011
Hiran Region
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
 FSNAU Food security field analyst of
Hiran was able to collect data directly
from the field in Mataban areas.
 The information from other areas that
could not be accessed directly due to
insecurity was collected through
teleconferencing with enumerators, key
informants/focus groups
 Travelling through riverine & agro
pastoral LZ livelihoods for direct
observation followed by data collection
through teleconferencing
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food
and Iincome
1. Two Pastoral Livelihood (SIP and Hawd)
 Primary sources of income of poor:
sale of livestock & livestock products
 Primary sources of food of poor: own
production, purchase and food gifts
 Primary livelihood assets of poor:
camel, cattle and sheep/goats
2. Agropastoral and Riverine Livelihoods
 Hiran Agropastoral: Main sources of income: sale of livestock &
livestock products, crop sales, sale of bush products (charcoal, fire
wood, building sticks, fodder); main sources of food: own production,
purchase and food gifts
 Hiran riverine: Main sources of income: labour activities, sale of
crops, crop fodder and bush products; main source of food: own
production and purchases
Climate
Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance
Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June 2011)
Overall statement: Normal rains were received in
Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) and parts of Hawd
pastoral LZ while the rainfall performance was
poor in agropastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd
pastoral LZ
•
•
•
•
Start of Season: started late 3rd dekad of April
and ended 3rd dekad of May 2011
Temporal and Spatial coverage: Average rains
with good impact on livelihoods were received
in SIP and parts of Hawd livelihood.
Poor Rains: All of Hiran agropastoral, riverine
and parts of Hawd livelihood zones (60 - 80 % of
LTM)
Hagaa Rain (June – July ): Light Hagaa rains
have been received in the southern part of
Jalalaqsi district
Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)
Climate
Vegetation Conditions (NDVI)
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
•
Recurrent armed clashes between
opposing parties over the control of the
region further deteriorated security
situation. Beletweyne and its
surroundings are the epicentre of the
current conflict.
•
Regrouping and militia build-up in the
region likely to cause another large
confrontation
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
& Nutrition:
• Human death and injuries
• Trade disruptions
• Population displacement
• Restricted humanitarian interventions
• Outmigration of business and traders,
negatively impacting food availability
and job opportunities of poor households
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Regional Cereal Production by District
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Districts
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of
Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2011 as % of
Gu PWA
5 year average
(1995-2010)
(2006-2010)
Maize
Sorghum
125
150
275
122%
17%
43%
100
90
190
69%
18%
42%
90
50
140
82%
19%
52%
315
290
605
90%
18%
45%
Belet Weyne
Bulo Burto
Jalalaqsi
Gu 2011 Total
Agriculture
Trends in Regional Cereal Production
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
10,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
8,000
Gu Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
MT
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
MT
Annual Cereal Production by Season
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Deyr
Gu
Overall PWA
5 year Avrg
Annual Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2011)
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
1
1. Sorghum crop damaged by birds, Beletweyne
2. Poor maize crop, Jalalaqsi
3. Sorghum failure in agro pastoral, Buloburte
2
3
Agriculture
Regional Cereal Flow
• Local cereal flow from normal
sources – from Bay and the two
Shabelle regions have already
terminated due to poor crop
production
• Current cereal inflow to the region
is commercial food aid (Ethiopian
side) through northern regions and
direct cross border trade; the
supply has reduced due to
insecurity.
Agriculture
Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices and Daily
Labour Wage Rates
Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Maize)
Factors Influencing:
Sorghum prices:
•Poor local crop production
•Cessation of cereal inflow from Bay and
two Shabelle regions as a result of poor
harvest failure.
•Civil insecurity restricting the trade flow
Labour rates:
• Increased job opportunities with cash
crop production in the riverine areas;
intensified activities in the wake of
Ramadan
Regional Trends in Daily Labour Rate
(Beletweyn market)
Agriculture
Regional Trend in TOT between Labour to Cereal
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between daily labour wage rate and white maize:
7kg/daily labour in Jul ‘11 vs 13kg in Jul ‘10.
Agriculture
Cash crop production
Cash crop production in
riverine livelihood is widely
practiced by better off
farmers throughout the year.
The main crops include:
onions, tomatoes,
watermelon, peppers. These
are supplied to both regional
markets as well as northern
regions (Puntland and
Somaliland)
Agriculture
Coping strategies
Coping strategies available for poor
HHs in riverine and agro pastoral
LZ include:
•Fodder sale
•Labour activities & migration
•Collection and sale of bush
products
•Kinship and social support
•Limited loan
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
1
1. Charcoal heading to market (Beletwein)
2. Building sticks heading to market
3. Hired labour by better-off for maize threshing
(Jalalaqsi)
3
2
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration- Gu 2011
• Water availability is average in livelihood
zones except parts of Hawd Pastoral,
which is experiencing moderate water
shortage due to poor rains
• Pasture condition is average in SIP and
parts of Hawd livelihoods, and very poor in
agro pastoral, riverine and parts of Hawd
LZ due to poor rains
• Livestock body condition is near normal to
normal in SIP and parts of Hawd LZ but
very poor in agro pastoral, riverine and
parts of Hawd LZ
• Normal migration to SIP and parts of
Hawd areas sharing the limited resources,
which had created early resource
depletion
Livestock
Trends in Milk Production and Livestock Holdings
Trends in Herd Size (June 2011)
Region
Hiran
Calving/
kidding
(Gu ’11)
Milk
production
(Gu ’11)
Expected
calving/
kidding
Jul – Dec ‘11
Livelihoods
Livestock species
All Lzs:
All Lzs:
All Lzs:
All Lzs:
Pastoral- Hawd
Camel: Low
to None
Camel: Low to
None
Cattle: Low to
None
Sheep/Goats:
Low to None
Very low for
all species
Camel: Low to
None
Cattle: Low to
None
Sheep and
goat: Low to
None
Camel: Decreasing trend
(below baseline)
Sheep/Goat: Decreasing
trend
(below baseline)
SIP and Agropastoral
Camel: Decreasing trend
(below baseline)
Cattle : Decreasing trend
(below baseline)
Sheep/Goat: decreasing
trend
(below baseline)
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Cattle: Low
to None
Sheep/Goats:
Low to
Medium
Livestock
Pastoral Destitution
Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices & Terms of Trade
Trends in local goat prices
Factors Influencing:
L. Goat prices:
•Low demand
• Civil insecurity
ToT goat to sorghum:
• High cereal prices
•Decreased livestock prices
Regional Trends in ToT:
local goat to cereal (red
sorghum)
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Poor cattle body conditions in Agro pastoral. Beletwein,
Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11
Poor goat body conditions. Agropastoral, Buloburte,
Hiran, FSNAU, July ’11
Empty water catchment. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July‘11
Normal livestock migration. Hawd, Beletwein, Hiran, FSNAU, July ‘11
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Hiran: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate
DIESEL 1 Litre
80000
Price per Unit (SoSh)
SUGAR 1 kg
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
60000
RED RICE 1 kg
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
40000
20000
Month
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)
• Increased international prices
• Civil insecurity: high tension restricting trade movements
• Increased illegal taxes
• Increased reliance on imported cereals due to crop failure in southern regions
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
0
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(July 11)
Hiran
Hiran Riverine
N= 570
GAM – 20.7 (18.4-23.2)
SAM - 9.1 (7.2-11.5)
CMR - 1.37 (1.04-1.71)
U5MR - 4.24 (2.955.31)
Rapid MUAC
Screening
(% <12.5cm, &
% <11.5cm)
Hiran Riverine
MUAC<12.5 cm
21.00 (18.5-23.8)
MUAC<11.5 cm
8.60 (6.8-10.9)
Health
Information
System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
High (>20%)
and
increasing
trends
Data from
SCUk
shows
increasing
trend of
admissions
Other relevant
information – Key
driving factors
Overall Aggravating Factors:
•Civil insecurity - limited
humanitarian space;
•Disease outbreaks- AWD,
cholera,
•Limited access to health
centers
Overall Mitigating Factors:
Hiran Agro-pastoral
N=535
GAM- 43.2 (37.7-48.9)
SAM -16.3 (13.4-19.6)
CMR- 1.53 (1.15-1.90)
U5MR- 4.24 (2.835.65)
Hiran Pastoral
N=444
GAM - 27.3 (24.2-30.6)
SAM- 12.8 (10.5-15.6)
CMR 1.53 (1.07-1.98)
U5MR 3.67 (2.38-4.97)
Hiran Agro-pastoral
MUAC<12.5 cm
24.20 (20.0-29.0)
MUAC<11.5 cm
5.80 (3.7-9.0)
High (>20%)
and
increasing
trends
Hiran Pastoral
<12.5
GAM MUAC 22.80%
(19.5-26.4)
<11.5
SAM MUAC 6.20%
(4.7-8.1)
High (>20%)
and
increasing
trends
•Income from sale of fodder
and some labor opportunities
among the riverine
Summary of
analysis Gu,
2011
Hiran Riverine –
In Deyr
2010/2011 it was
Likely Very
Critical
Gu 2011 the
nutrition situation
is Very Critical
and likely to
deteriorate
Hiran Agropastoral –
In Deyr
2010/2011 it was
Likely Very
Critical
Gu 2011 the
nutrition situation
is Very Critical
and likely to
deteriorate
Hiran Pastoral
In Deyr
2010/2011 it was
Likely Very
Critical
Gu 2011 the
HIRAN
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of
Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
August 2011
Aggravating factors:
 Civil Insecurity and associated disruption including increasing number of IDPs in the region
 Very limited humanitarian space
 Outbreaks of diarrhea and whooping cough reported in the region
 Limited access to health centers and medical supplies in the area
 Increasing food insecurity
Mitigating factor:
 Very limited access to SF programs
 Income from sale of fodder and some labour opportunities among the riverine
 Social support
HIRAN
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
Urban Population: 100%P in HE; 50%M in AFLC
Rural Population: Southern Inland Pastoral P: 100% P in HE; 50% M- AFLC;
Hiran Riverine 100% P- HE; 75% M-HE; 25% M in AFLC; Hiran Agropastoral
POOR: 100% in HE; 75% M- HE and 25% M- AFLC; Hawd 100%P AFLC
• Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate
• Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet
2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal
ppp day via asset Stripping)
• Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage
only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)
• Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing);
in AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
• Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than
reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing
• Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible
depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or
loss of access)
MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2011
HIRAN
Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors:
 Very poor rainfall in terms of coverage and intensity in cropping areas and near average for pastoral
livelihoods except in pockets of Hawd livelihood
 Complete absence of cereal stocks due to 7-8 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading to successive
seasons of cereal crop failure
 Very low Gu 2011 cereal production of 605MT (8% of PWA)
 Poor pasture conditions in agro-pastoral and riverine and high fodder prices
 Very poor livestock body condition (cattle and sheep) with high deaths in Deyr 2010 and Jilaal 2011
 Decreasing trends in herd size of all species
 Significant increase in maize prices (85% from June 2010) and absent sorghum on the markets
 Lack of red sorghum in the main reference markets
 Weak purchasing power: ToT daily labour wage/ white maize (from 10kg in June ’10 to 6kg in June ’11)
and local goat/ white maize (from 84 kg in June ’10 to 39 kg in June ’11).
 Recurrent armed clashes between opposing parties over the control of the region resulting in
displacements and trade disruptions
 Restricted humanitarian interventions
Mitigating Factors:
 Access to limited irrigated fodder sales and cash crops
 Availability of agricultural labour (cash crops by the better-off and upper middle) for the poor in riverine
areas
 Migration options to Somali region of Ethiopia to access better pasture, water and humanitarian
assistance.
 Social support, including remittance contribute rural/urban income
HIRAN
Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Hiraan Region and
Affected Livelihood
Zone
GU 2011
Estimated Population of
Affected Livelihood Zones
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Famine
Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral
25,760
4,000
3,000
7,000
0
0
Hiran Agro-Past
136,727
38,000
85,000
20,000
104,000
0
Hiran riverine
32,633
4,000
25,000
4,000
25,000
0
Southern Inland Past
61,511
17,000
12,000
14,000
15,000
0
Destitute Pastoralists
4,067
0
4,000
0
4,000
0
260,698
63,000
129,000
45,000
148,000
0
SUB-TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
192,000
193,000
HIRAN
Rural Population in Crisis by District
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
GU 2011
Deyr 2010/11
Hiraan Region Affected
District
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE
Famine
Belet Weyne/Matabaan
135,580
30,000
69,000
23,000
77,000
0
Bulo Burto/Maxaas
88,673
23,000
45,000
15,000
53,000
0
Jalalaqsi
36,445
10,000
15,000
7,000
18,000
0
260,698
63,000
129,000
45,000
148,000
0
SUB-TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
192,000
193,000
HIRAN
Urban Population in Crisis
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
District
UNDP 2005 Total
Population
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
UNDP 2005
Urban
Population
Total in
AFLC or HE
as % of
Urban
population
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC
or HE as % of
Urban
population
Hiraan
Belet Weyne/Matabaan
Bulo Burto/Maxaas
Jalalaqsi
Sub-Total
172,049
36,469
5,000
15,000
55
9,000
15,000
66
111,038
22,365
0
9,000
40
0
9,000
40
46,724
10,279
0
4,000
39
0
4,000
39
329,811
69,113
5,000
28,000
48
9,000
28,000
54
The End