Transcript 13.Lecture: The weapons of mass destruction terrorism

The weapons of mass
destruction terrorism
COL. ENGR. JANOS TOMOLYA PhD
Defining WMD
Weapons that have a relatively large-scale impact on people, property,
and/or infrastructure.
(A) any destructive device , incendiary, or poison gas(i.e. explosive
device);
(B) any weapon that is designed or intended to cause death or serious
bodily injury through the release, dissemination, or impact of
toxic or poisonous chemicals, or their precursors;
(C) any weapon involving a biological agent or toxin
(D) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity
at a level dangerous to human life.
CBRN weapons: chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear
1) Chemical Weapons
Chemical Weapons use the toxic properties of chemical substances to cause
physical or psychological harm to an enemy
Many different kinds, including:
• Choking and blood agents (like chlorine, phosgene, fentanyl gas) cause
respiratory damage and asphyxiation
• Blistering agents (like mustard gas and lewisite) cause painful burns
requiring immediate medical attention
• Nerve gases degrade the functioning of the nervous system, causing a loss
of muscle control, respiratory failure, and eventually death
Can be delivered through bombs, rockets, artillery shells, spray tanks, and
missile warheads
Chemical Agents
• Intended to kill, seriously injure, or incapacitate
people through physiological effects
• Incidents demand immediate reaction from
emergency responders
• Can be introduced through aerosol devices,
breaking containers, or covert dissemination
Types of Chemical Agents
Choking
Blood
Blister
Nerve
Tear
•Chlorine
•Diphosgene
•Cyanide
•Nitrogen Oxide
•Perflurorisobutylene
•Phosgene
•Red
Phosphorous
•Titanium
Tetrachloride
•Zinc Oxide
•Arsine
•Cyanogen
Chloride
•Hydrogen
Chloride
•Hydrogen
Cyanide
•Distilled
Mustard
•Lewisite
•Mustard Gas
•Nitrogen
Mustard
•Phosgene
Oxime
•Ethyldichloroarsine
•Methyldichloroa
rsine
•Cyclohexyl
Sarin
•GE
•Sarin
•Soman
•Tabun
•VE
•VG
•V-Gas
•VM
•VX
•Bromobenzylcyanide
•Chloroacetophenone
•Chloropicrin
•CNB
•CNC
•CNS
•CR
•CS
Characteristics of an Incident Involving a
Chemical Agent
• Effects mostly local to release site but may be
distributed beyond release site by wind and
contamination
• Area may be marked by unusual clouds, haze, mist,
odors, tastes, droplets, etc.
• May be persistent in environment
Indicators of Possible
Chemical Agent Use
•
•
•
•
Stated threat to release a chemical agent
Initial unexplained casualties and illnesses
Unusual liquid, spray or vapor
Suspicious devices or packages
2) Biological Weapons
Biological weapons intentionally disseminate agents of infectious
diseases to harm or kill others.
Key considerations include infectivity, virulence, toxicity, pathogenicity,
the incubation period, transmissibility, lethality and stability.
* Bacteria (like Anthrax, Brucellosis, Tularemia, Plague)
* Viruses (Smallpox, Marburg, Yellow Fever)
* Rickettsia (Typhus fever, Spotted fever)
* Fungi (the molds that cause stem rust of wheat and rye)
* Toxins (like Ricin, Botulinum and Saxitoxin) aka “midspectrum”
* Infectious Pathogens:
Emerging
threats;
SARS, Avian Influenza
- Relatively
cost-effective
weapons
‘Old’bythreats:
TB,
- Considered
many to be
theHIV,
mostMalaria
insidious type of weapons
Biological Agents
• Recognition of a biological hazard can occur through
identification of a credible threat, discovery of
bioterrorism evidence, diagnosis, and detection
• Delay between exposure and onset of illness
• Victims may serve as carriers of the disease with the
capability of infecting others
• Could affect agricultural commodities over a large area
Types of Biological Agents
Bacteria
•Anthrax
•Q-Fever
•Tularemia
•Psittacosis
•Glanders
•Melioidosis
•Brucellosis
•Plague
Viruses
•Dengue Fever
•Equine Encephalitis
•Hantaan
•Congo-Crimean HF
•Chikungunya
•Variola
•Ebola
•Smallpox
Toxins
•Botulinum
•SEB
•Perfringens
•Ricin
•Saxitoxin
•Tetrodotoxin
•Mycotoxins
Characteristics of an Incident Involving a
Biological Agent
• Immediate effects mostly local to release but may
be expanded distribution through human
transmittal
• Possible persistence in environment
• Possible geographic contamination
Indicators of Possible
Biological Agent Use
• Stated threat to release a biological agent
• Initial unexplained deaths and illness possibly
beginning a day or more after an incident
• Unusual occurrence of dead or dying animals
• Unusual casualties
• Unusual liquid, spray or vapor
Bioterrorism
The intentional or threatened use of microorganisms
or biological toxins to kill or incapacitate people,
animals or crops.
• Create terror, panic, uncertainty/uneasiness
• Advance political/ religious/ apocalyptic beliefs
• Asymmetrical response AKA “even the playing
field”
• Doable and affordable
• Effective
Criticality
Chemical
Biological
• Effects are immediate and
obvious
• Victims localized by time
and place
• Overt
• Illicit immediate response
• First responders are police,
fire, EMS
• Effects are delayed and not
obvious
• Victims are dispersed in
time and place
• Covert
• No first responders
• Unless announced, attack
identified by medical and
public health personnel
Advantages of biological weapons
• Relatively easy to obtain
• Relatively inexpensive to produce
• Potential for dissemination over large
geographic area
• Creates panic
• Can overwhelm medical services
• Perpetrators escape easily
• Incubation period
3) Radiological weapons
• A radiation emission device (RED) or a radiological dispersion
device (RDD) – also known as a “dirty bomb” – is a bomb to
cause panic and mass disruption; areas with severe radioactive
contamination would be uninhabitable for many years.
• Built using radioactive material (such as cesium 137, cobalt 60,
strontium 90, plutonium oxide and uranium oxide), which is
dispersed by the detonation of conventional explosives.
• Myriad sources of radioactive material could be used for this
purpose, like medical/educational facilities, atomic waste storage
reservations, commercial sites, etc.
– Many lack strong security, especially medical facilities, educational
institutions
– Can also acquire radioactive materials via mail order or Internet
Radiological Sources
Seed Irradiators: Used in the Former
Soviet Union were mounted on trucks
and used to irradiate seeds in order to
kill fungus and inhibit germination. Each
irradiator has activity levels of over
1,000 curies of cesium-137 in powdery
form.
Radioisotope Thermoelectric
Generator: Used in the Former Soviet
Union to power light houses in remote
locations. Many have become
orphaned sources and are
unaccounted for. RTGs can contain
activity levels of ~30,000 curies of
Strontium-90
Radiological Sources
Teletherapy Device (Cobalt-60 and Cesium-137)
Source activity: up to 10 kCi (370 TBq) 60Co.
4) Nuclear Weapons
•
Unique in their explosive
energy, derived from nuclear
fission: splitting the nuclear of
an atom, usually of highly
enriched uranium or
plutonium, into two or more
parts by bombarding it with
neutrons, and causing a chain
reaction
•
Destructive power up to
50 megatons
–
–
–
•
1,000 tons of TNT = 1 kiloton
WWII nukes = 15-22 kilotons
1,000 kilotons = 1 megaton
2 types: Gun-type and
Implosion
The History
• First major use in modern warfare (April 22, 1915);
during World War I, the German army released chlorine gas in an attack
against the French in Ypres, Belgium
• About 124,000 tons of chemical weapons were used by all sides during
World War I, inflicting over a million casualties (90,000 fatalities).
• WWII examples of WMD include:
– Italy used mustard gas against Ethiopians
– Japan used intestinal typhoid bacteria to poison a Soviet water
supply
– Japan used air cargo drops of rice and wheat mixed with plaguecarrying fleas over China and Manchuria
The Changing Environment
During the Cold War
• Bipolar international system
• Monopoly of WMD by strong, powerful states
• International treaties signed to curb WMD proliferation
• Stringent security surrounding atomic material in
US/USSR, mostly due to concerns about spying, espionage
The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed
• Nuclear proliferation in South Asia, N. Korea, Middle East
• The Non-Proliferation Regime’s crisis of legitimacy
• Fears of CBRN proliferation after Soviet collapse
• Major advances in biotechnology
Terrorists and WMD
“Dozens of identified domestic and international
terrorists and terrorist groups have expressed their
intent to obtain and use WMD.”
- Denis Blair, Director of National Intelligence,
2010
“There is a high likelihood of some type of WMD
terrorist attack by the year 2013.”
- Commission on the Prevention of WMD
Proliferation and Terrorism, 2008
The History
History of use by non-state actors includes:
• 1984, The Dalles, Oregon: Rajneeshes poison locals with
salmonella
• June 1990, Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) used chlorine gas in its assault on a Sri Lankan
Armed Forces camp at East Kiran
• Japan, 1994-1995: Aum Shinrikyo uses Sarin gas in
Matsumoto and Tokyo
• U.S., October 2001: anthrax attacks through U.S. mail
• Russia, 1995: Chechen rebels planted a dirty bomb in
Moscow's Ismailovsky Park
Emerging Threat Indicators
• June 2003, a Jemiaah Islamiah weapons storage facility in
Malaysia is found to contain various kinds of chemicals
• April 1985, a compound of the Sword, the Covenant and
the Arm of the Lord is found to have a 55-gallon barrel of
cyanide
• January 2003, an apartment in north London is found to
have raw ingredients for making cyanide and ricin, as well
as instruction manuals
• January 2004, seven pounds of cyanide salt are found
during a raid on a Baghdad house reportedly connected
with al Qaeda
• November 2004, a “chemical laboratory” is discovered in
Fallujah containing potassium cyanide, hydrochloric acid,
and sulfuric acid
The Changing Environment
Contemporary threat vectors include:
• The transfer, theft and detonation of an intact nuclear weapon (INW) by a
terrorist group like al Qaida
• WMD designs, instruction manuals available online
• The theft or purchase of fissile material (by states or terrorists) to
fabricate and detonate a crude nuke – an improvised nuclear device (IND)
“Pre-positioned WMD”
•
•
•
•
•
Nuclear power plants
Chemical storage facilities
Bio-technology labs
Dams, water protection infrastructure (e.g., Katrina)
Urban transportation of toxic chemicals
A Model for Analysis
Intentions
High
High
Low
Low
Capabilities &
Opportunities
Motivations
A Spectrum of Ideologies
Threshold of
catastrophic
violence
Nonviolent
Protests
Groups that want to
change the world, but
reject the need for violent
means
Apocalyptic
Terrorism
Groups that want to
change the world, and
see a need for violent
means
Groups that want to
destroy the world, for
various reasons,
possibly with WMD
Weapon Effects
Different interests according to weapon type
• Biological and chemical weapons can be deployed silently.
Effects produced by chemical and biological weapons are
usually delayed and spread over time.
• Radiological weapons involve both explosion and longterm effects
• Nuclear weapons are unique in their explosive energy
(derived from fission) which can cause catastrophic
damage and long-term radiation
• Terrorists prefer spectacular, massive impact, instant
worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect
Differences Between WMD Incidents and
1
Other Incidents
1. Situation may not be recognizable until there are
multiple casualties
2. There may be multiple events
3. Responders are placed at a higher risk of becoming
casualties
4. The location of the incident will be treated as a crime
scene
5. Contamination of critical facilities and large geographic
areas may result
Differences Between WMD Incidents and
1
Other Incidents
6. Scope of the incident may expand geometrically and may
affect mutual aid jurisdictions
7. There will be a stronger reaction from the public than
with other types of incidents
8. Time is working against responding elements
9. Support facilities are at risk as targets
10. Specialized State and local response capabilities may be
overwhelmed
Types of Terrorist Threats to
Transportation Facilities
• Structural/functional damage/destruction resulting from
portable, truck-or boat-borne explosives and fire damage
• Casualties from blast or fire
• System shutdown via exposure and contamination from
biological and/or chemical WMD, e.g., introduced through
tunnel vents
• Collateral damage to other lifelines, e.g.,
telecommunications, power, and pipelines carried along
bridges or tunnels
Radiological Agents/Nuclear Weapons
• An attack may be difficult to detect - the presence
of radioactive material may or may not be obvious
• Different devices may be used to launch an attack:
– Improvised Nuclear Device (IND)
– Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD)
– Simple RDD
• Alpha Radiation
– Internal hazard
• Beta Radiation
– Slight or Internal hazard
• Gamma Radiation
– Acute hazard
Alpha
Particle
Beta
Particle
Gamma
Rays
LEAD
Types of Nuclear Radiation Emitted
From Radioactive Materials
Indicators of Possible
Radiological Agent/Nuclear Weapon Use
(e.g., dispersion of radioactive material by non-nuclear explosion or
pressurized gas, nuclear detonation with radioactive fallout)
• A stated threat to deploy a nuclear or radiological
device
• Unexplained deaths and illness
• The presence of nuclear or radiological equipment
(e.g., spent fuel canisters or nuclear transport
vehicles)
• Nuclear placards or warning materials along with
otherwise unexplained casualties
Characteristics of an Incident Involving a Radiological
Agent or Nuclear Weapon
• Effects mostly local to release but may be some
distribution via, e.g, wind beyond release site
• Persistence in environment
• Geographic contamination
• Extensive radioactive fallout
• Radioactive poisoning of foodstuffs, water sources and
long-term illnesses
• Large-scale infrastructure destruction
• Conventional explosive used for dispersal may cause
additional effects and explosions
Conventional Explosive Devices
• Easiest to obtain and use
• May be used to cause massive local destruction or
to disperse chemical, biological or radiological
agents
• Characterized as being explosive or incendiary,
employing high or low filler explosive materials to
explode and/or cause fires
High Explosives
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
RDX
ANFO (Ammonium nitrate fuel oil solution)
Potassium Chlorate
Nitrostarch Explosives
Picric Acid (Tri-Nitro-Phenol)
Ammonium Picrate (Explosive-D)
Lead Azide
Dynamite
Relative Destructive Forces of
Explosives
Explosive Detonation Overpressure
Type
Velocity
Conversion
(km/s)
Factor
Charge
Required
TNT
RDX
6.94
8.64
1
1.3
1 lb.
0.75 lbs.
ANFO
5
0.4
2.4 lbs.
Vehicle Bomb Explosion Effects
Source: Federal Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Agency website
Summary
• Proliferation of WMD (or CBRN weapons) is among the
world’s most daunting security challenges
• U.S. and International community struggling to contain
the spreading availability of WMD
– No IAEA-like watchdog for chemical or biological
weapons
• Multiple countries are seeking to expand their WMD
capabilities
• Scientific expertise and dual-use technological equipment
become more readily available through globalization
• New technologies make some weapons easier, cheaper to
make; possible implications for terrorists or other violent
non-state actors to acquire and use them
Final Thoughts
• The threat is real, but within narrow parameters
• Most important dimensions for terrorists:
–
–
–
–
–
Motivations
Materials availability
Knowledge
Opportunities
Weapons attributes
References
• “Guide for All-Hazard Emergency Operations Planning”, State and
Local Guide (101), Chapter 6, Attachment G- Terrorism, FEMA, April
2001
• “Emergency Response to Terrorism, Self-Study”, FEMA/USFA/NFAERT:SS, June 1999
• “Surface Transportation Vulnerability Assessment”, U.S. DOT, RSPA,
Volpe Center, Oct. 25, 2001
• “A Guide to Highway Vulnerability Assessment for Critical Asset
Identification and Protection”,
http://security.transportation.org/community/security/guides.html
• FEMA: Concept of Operations Plan – Situation,
www.fema.gov/rrr/conplan/conpln3b.shtm
• Various other WMD related websites
Questions?
UNCLASSIFIED