Transcript WMD Part 1 - James J. F. Forest

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Weapons of Mass Destruction: An Introduction
Weapons that have a relatively large-scale impact on people,
property, and/or infrastructure.
WMD are defined in US law (18 USC §2332a) as:
(A) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title (i.e. explosive
device);
(B) any weapon that is designed or intended to cause death or serious bodily
injury through the release, dissemination, or impact of toxic or
poisonous chemicals, or their precursors;
(C) any weapon involving a biological agent, toxin, or vector (as those terms
are defined in section 178 of this title)
(D)
any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a
level dangerous to human life.
CBRN weapons: chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear
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“The probability of a terrorist organization using a chemical, biological,
radiological, or nuclear weapon, or high-yield explosives, has increased
significantly during the past decade.”
– 2003 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
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“Terrorists have declared their intention to acquire and use weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) to inflict even more catastrophic attacks
against the United States, our allies, partners, and other interests
around the world. ”
– 2006 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
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“The prospect that a nuclear capable state may lose control of some of
its weapons to terrorists is one of the greatest dangers the US and its
allies face.”
– Quadrennial Defense Review, February 6, 2006
Intentions
High
High
Low
Low
Capabilities &
Opportunities
During the Cold War
 Bipolar international system
 Monopoly of nukes & CBW by strong, powerful states
 Terrorists did not cross threshold of mass destruction
 Nuclear terrorism ruled out because of stringent security surrounding
atomic material in US/USSR
The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed
 The Non-Proliferation Regime’s crisis of legitimacy & nuclear proliferation
in South Asia, N Korea, the Middle East
 Fears of CBRN proliferation post-Soviet collapse
 Precedents set by Aum Shinriyko, LTTE and Chechen rebels
 The 2001 anthrax attacks in US
 Jihadi terrorist groups’ explicit interest in WMD to inflict mass casualties on
their enemies
 Major advances in biotechnology
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Transfer by a sympathetic national government, perhaps
using export control loopholes
Assistance from custodians of nuclear weapons (security
guards)
Unauthorized assistance from corrupt, angry or
disenchanted, scientists/officials
Seizure without insider help via armed raids
Coup d’etat and chaos in a nuclear-armed failing state
Technical information to build a nuclear weapon is widely
available
With relatively little radioactive material obtained from a
power plant or medical facility, terrorists could construct a
“dirty bomb”
4 Weapon Types
1.
2.
3.
4.
Chemical
Biological
Radiological
Nuclear
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Effects produced by Chemical and Biological Weapons are usually
delayed and spread over time.
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Terrorists, in contrast, prefer spectacular, massive impact, instant
worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect
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Thus, nuclear or radiological may be more likely, but are
significantly more difficult to design or acquire
Chemical Weapons use the toxic properties of chemical substances to cause physical
or psychological harm to an enemy
Many different kinds, including:
Choking and blood agents (like chlorine, phosgene, fentanyl gas) cause
respiratory damage and asphyxiation
 Blistering agents (like mustard gas and lewisite) cause painful burns requiring
immediate medical attention
 Nerve gases degrade the functioning of the nervous system, causing a loss of
muscle control, respiratory failure, and eventually death
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Can be delivered through bombs, rockets, artillery shells, spray tanks, and
missile warheads
al-Mubtakkar
Biological weapons intentionally disseminate agents of infectious
diseases to harm or kill others.
Key considerations include infectivity, virulence, toxicity,
pathogenicity, the incubation period, transmissibility, lethality and
stability.
* Bacteria (like Anthrax, Brucellosis, Tularemia, Plague)
* Viruses (Smallpox, Marburg, Yellow Fever)
* Rickettsia (Typhus fever, Spotted fever)
* Fungi (the molds that cause stem rust of wheat and rye)
* Toxins (like Ricin, Botulinum and Saxitoxin) aka “midspectrum”
* Infectious Pathogens:
Emerging threats; SARS, Avian Influenza
‘Old’ threats: TB, HIV, Malaria
- Relatively cost-effective weapons
- Considered by many to be the most insidious type of weapons
Strikes against the agricultural sector pose a serious threat
• Disenchanted Scientists
• Corrupt Security Guards
• Export Control Loopholes
• Global Crime Networks
• Black Markets
• Weak State Governance
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A radiation emission device (RED) or a radiological dispersion device (RDD) or
“dirty bomb” is a bomb to cause panic, terror and mass disruption.
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Such a device, comprising radioactive material (such as plutonium 239,
uranium 235, plutonium oxide and uranium oxide) dispersed by the
detonation of conventional explosives, could spark terror and paralyze whole
cities, even if its killing capacity were limited
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Myriad sources could be used for this purpose
 Medical/educational facilities, atomic waste storage reservations,
commercial sites, etc.
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Many lack concerted security
 Especially medical facilities, educational institutions
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Unique in their explosive energy,
derived from nuclear fission:
splitting the nuclear of an atom,
usually of highly enriched
uranium or plutonium, into two
or more parts by bombarding it
with neutrons, and causing a
chain reaction
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Destructive power up to
50 megatons
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1,000 tons of TNT = 1 kiloton
WWII nukes = 15-22 kilotons
1,000 kilotons = 1 megaton
2 types: Gun-type and Implosion
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The transfer, theft and detonation of an intact nuclear weapon (INW) – “sum of
all fears” scenario
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The theft or purchase of fissile material to fabricate and detonate a crude nuke
– an improvised nuclear device (IND)
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Attacks against and sabotage of nuclear facilities, in particular nuclear power
plants, causing the release of large amounts of radioactivity
Illicit market for nuclear materials: the case of A.Q. Khan
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In October 2003, US intelligence agents boarded a cargo ship en route from
Malaysia to Libya via Dubai and found thousands of centrifuge parts for
enriching uranium. The buyer was Libya’s Col. Gaddafi; the seller, Dr A. Q. Khan,
the father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb
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This interception uncovered the dark underside of globalization – a worldwide,
black market in nuclear materials, designs and technologies that the IAEA chief,
Mohammed El-Baradei, has called a “Wal-Mart of private-sector proliferation”
“Pre-positioned WMD?”
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Nuclear power plants
Chemical storage facilities
Bio-technology labs
Dams, water protection infrastructure (Katrina)
Urban Transportation of Toxic Chemicals
Etc.
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9/11 attacks used “pre-positioned” weapons
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Potential exists for limited CBRN strikes
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Can’t rule out attacks that local affiliates can execute on a
(semi-) autonomous basis
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Aim to elicit mass disruption rather than physical destruction
per se
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Weapon type determines possible availability and impact