Transcript dbia-mar.org

Back to the Future Part II
On Behalf of
The Design Build Institute of America
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
February 4th, 2014
Raging Bull
(1980)
Historic and Projected World Output Growth
2004 through 2015*
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2014-2015 data are projections
Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries
Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Country
South Sudan
Sierra Leone
Turkmenistan
Paraguay
Mongolia
Lao P.D.R.
Liberia
Timor-Leste
Côte d'Ivoire
Ghana
China
Panama
Rwanda
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
Cambodia
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Tanzania
Myanmar
Region
Africa
Africa
Central Asia
South America
Asia
Southeast Asia
Africa
Southeast Asia
Africa
Africa
Asia
Central America
Africa
Central Asia
Central Asia
Southeast Asia
Africa
Africa
Africa
Southeast Asia
%
24.7
13.3
12.2
12.0
11.8
8.3
8.1
8.1
8.0
7.9
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
7.0
6.8
Rank
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
Country
Belgium
Denmark
Samoa
Swaziland
Czech Republic
Croatia
Finland
Barbados
Spain
Netherlands
Equatorial Guinea
Islamic Republic of Iran
Portugal
Italy
Slovenia
San Marino
Greece
Libya
Cyprus
Central African Republic
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2013-2014 data are projections
Region
%
Europe
0.1
Europe
0.1
Asia
0.1
Africa
0.0
Europe
-0.4
Eastern Europe -0.6
Europe
-0.6
Caribbean
-0.8
Europe
-1.3
Europe
-1.3
Africa
-1.5
Middle East
-1.5
Europe
-1.8
Europe
-1.8
Eastern Europe -2.6
Europe
-3.5
Europe
-4.2
Middle East
-5.1
Europe
-8.7
Africa
-14.5
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2014 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund
*For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market
prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.
Debt by Selected Country
2012
Source: International Monetary Fund
*IMF Staff Projections
Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2013 Growth*
Rank
4
2
1
6
8
12
5
10
3
9
11
7
Exchange
Tokyo SE
Nasdaq
NYSE Group
Frankfurt SE
Bolsa De Madrid
Swiss Exchange
Euronext
BorsaItaliana
London SE
TSX Group
Hong Kong Exchanges
Shanghai SE
Source: Yahoo! Finance
*Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.
Index
Nikkei 225
NASDAQ Composite
DJI A
DAX
Madrid General
Swiss Market
CAC 40
FTSE MIB
FTSE 100
S&P TSX Composite
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Composite
% Change
56.7%
38.3%
26.5%
25.5%
21.4%
20.2%
18.0%
16.6%
12.0%
9.6%
2.9%
-6.8%
S&P Select Sector Performance
12-Month Percent Change as of December 31st, 2013
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index
May 2008 – January 2014
S&P 500 index depicted in orange
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance
Third Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations
Earnings per Share
Symbol Q3 2012
FCX
BTU
MSFT
COF
DD
VFC
VZ
MMM
TXN
AMD
YHOO
$0.68
$0.51
$0.60
$2.01
$0.32
$0.88
$0.64
$1.65
$0.52
-$0.20
$0.35
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Surprise
Estimated Reported
$0.62
-$0.04
$0.54
$1.80
$0.41
$0.94
$0.74
$1.75
$0.53
$0.02
$0.33
$0.79
$0.05
$0.62
$1.86
$0.45
$0.98
$0.77
$1.78
$0.56
$0.04
$0.34
$0.17
$0.09
$0.08
$0.06
$0.04
$0.04
$0.03
$0.03
$0.03
$0.02
$0.01
Symbol Q3 2012
UTX
XRX
GE
COH
UPS
MCD
HON
DOW
CMG
CAT
STI
$1.37
$0.25
$0.36
$0.77
$1.06
$1.43
$1.20
$0.42
$2.27
$2.54
$1.98
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Surprise
Estimated Reported
$1.54
$0.25
$0.35
$0.76
$1.15
$1.51
$1.24
$0.54
$2.78
$1.67
$0.69
$1.55
$0.26
$0.36
$0.77
$1.16
$1.52
$1.24
$0.50
$2.66
$1.45
$0.33
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.00
-$0.04
-$0.12
-$0.22
-$0.36
Recession Watch
as of November 2013
Source: Moody’s Economy
Industrial Production
January 2001 through December 2013
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2013Q4*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
*Advanced (1st) Estimate
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
Q4 2012 – Q4 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Ordinary People
(1980)
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
January 2002 through December 2013
December 2013:
+74K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Construction Employment
Monthly Net Change
February 2000 through December 2013
Industry Sector
13-Dec 13-Nov 12-Dec 1-net 12-net 12-%
Construction
5833.0 5849.0 5711.0 -16.0 122.0 2.1%
Residential Building
601.2
596.4
594.9
4.8
26.8 4.7%
Nonresidential Building
685.2
686.4
675.2
-1.2
10.0 1.5%
Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction
885.1
893.9
884.6
-8.8
0.5 0.1%
Specialty Trade Contractors
3661.1 3672.6 3576.5 -11.5
84.6 2.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
December 2012 v. December 2013
All told 2,186 K Jobs gained
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007:
Full-time v. Part-time
December 2007 – December 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Full-time: -4.33 million
Part-time: +2.63 million
Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
December 2012 v. December 2013
Absolute Change
MD Total:
+36.0K; +1.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,186K; +1.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
series MD lost 20,044 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013.
Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
December 2012 v. December 2013
Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total:
+18.6K; +1.4%
MD Total (SA):
+36.0K; +1.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,186K; +1.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
December 2012 v. December 2013
Absolute Change
DC MSA Total:
+25.8K; +0.8%
US Total (SA):
+2,186K; +1.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Area Office Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Available
SF
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
Q4 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
City Center
3,170,011
16.65%
60,360
335,742
$20.85
Other Baltimore City
1,193,580
13.82%
9,321
45,314
$20.73
Total City
4,363,591
15.67%
69,681
381,056
$20.82
Southern Metro
4,686,453
13.86%
-26,904
289,394
$24.62
Northern Metro
5,377,684
16.18%
54,235
-69,160
$21.67
Total Metro
10,064,137
15.00%
27,331
220,234
$23.04
TOTAL MARKET
14,427,728
15.20%
97,012
601,290
$22.37
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
YTD 2013 Net Avg Asking
Absorption
Rent
SF
$/SF/YR
Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Annapolis
Arbutus
Balt County East
Baltimore City
BW Corridor
Carroll
Harford/ Cecil
I-83 Corridor
Reisterstown Road
Woodlawn/ Catonsville
TOTAL MARKET
Available
SF
731,655
386,793
411,323
995,539
2,291,123
234,120
475,751
389,178
605,036
383,821
6,904,339
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
7%
15%
10%
14%
8%
16%
17%
5%
17%
9%
10%
Q4 2013 Net YTD 2013 Net
Absorption
Absorption
SF
SF
-50,632
33,065
10,554
28,183
100,236
7,500
12,440
-43,129
-12,478
-9,731
76,008
-48,480
14,848
111,226
74,831
306,991
24,322
35,666
28,891
-12,977
-46,703
488,615
Avg Asking
Rent
$/SF/YR
$16.13
$7.95
$11.46
$7.87
$11.90
$8.76
$10.21
$10.74
$10.42
$9.87
$10.99
Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Annapolis
Arbutus
Balt County East
Baltimore City
BW Corridor
Carroll
Harford/ Cecil
I-83 Corridor
Reisterstown Road
Woodlawn/ Catonsville
TOTAL MARKET
Available
SF
790,010
1,090,330
4,704,779
6,867,140
7,819,752
1,048,368
2,719,817
396,669
215,341
305,327
25,957,533
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
6.50%
10.95%
11.95%
7.57%
11.34%
9.70%
4.08%
6.24%
3.07%
10.30%
8.52%
Q4 2013 Net YTD 2013 Net
Absorption
Absorption
SF
SF
18,312
36,489
191,292
242,409
267,567
59,518
259,071
41,205
-4,300
-116,190
995,373
232,328
52,268
-91,882
-8,134
399,917
287,856
1,700,435
-151,207
-70,999
-104,892
2,245,690
Avg Asking
Rent
$/SF/YR
$6.44
$4.63
$4.11
$4.34
$5.28
$4.23
$4.43
$7.77
$7.50
$4.04
$4.74
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
December 2012 v. December 2013 Percent Change
RANK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
9
9
11
11
13
13
13
13
17
STATE
DAKOTA
NORTH
FLORIDA
OREGON
TEXAS
DELAWARE
GEORGIA
ARIZONA
SOUTH CAROLINA
COLORADO
WASHINGTON
INDIANA
NEVADA
MASSACHUSETTS
MINNESOTA
MISSISSIPPI
UTAH
CALIFORNIA
%
4.0
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
RANK
17
17
17
17
22
22
24
24
24
27
28
28
28
28
28
28
34
STATE
HAWAII
MICHIGAN
NORTH CAROLINA
WISCONSIN
MARYLAND
SOUTH DAKOTA
IDAHO
MISSOURI
WYOMING
OKLAHOMA
ARKANSAS
ILLINOIS
MAINE
NEBRASKA
NEW YORK
TENNESSEE
LOUISIANA
%
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.6%
RANK
34
34
37
37
37
37
41
41
41
44
45
46
47
47
47
50
51
STATE
VERMONT
WEST VIRGINIA
IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
RHODE ISLAND
VIRGINIA
CONNECTICUT
KANSAS
MONTANA
ALABAMA
OHIO
NEW MEXICO
KENTUCKY
NEW JERSEY
PENNSYLVANIA
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ALASKA
%
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.7
State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs
December 2012 v. December 2013
STATE
California
Florida
Texas
Georgia
Mississippi
New York
Colorado
Minnesota
Connecticut
Virginia
Arizona
Oregon
South Carolina
Maryland*
Missouri
Massachusetts
Michigan
Year-overyear Ch.
(‘000)
28.9
28.8
13.5
9.9
8.5
7.1
7.0
6.6
5.8
5.4
4.9
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.5
2.0
STATE
Louisiana
Wyoming
North Dakota
Hawaii*
Arkansas
Iowa
Kansas
South Dakota*
Alaska
Rhode Island
Utah
Vermont
Alabama
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Washington
Year-overyear Ch.
(‘000)
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.
STATE
Nebraska*
Idaho
Illinois
Delaware*
Wisconsin
Ohio
West Virginia
Montana
District of Columbia*
Oklahoma
Nevada
Tennessee*
Kentucky
New Jersey
North Carolina
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Year-overyear Ch.
(‘000)
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.5
-2.1
-3.3
-3.7
-5.5
-7.6
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
December 2013
RANK
1
2
2
4
5
5
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
14
15
15
17
STATE
NORTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA
UTAH
IOWA
VERMONT
WYOMING
HAWAII
MINNESOTA
KANSAS
NEW HAMPSHIRE
MONTANA
VIRGINIA
OKLAHOMA
IDAHO
LOUISIANA
MISSOURI
%
RANK
2.6
3.6
3.6
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.9
17
19
20
20
22
22
22
22
22
27
27
29
29
31
31
31
34
STATE
WEST VIRGINIA
TEXAS
ALABAMA
MARYLAND
COLORADO
DELAWARE
FLORIDA
MAINE
WISCONSIN
ALASKA
NEW MEXICO
SOUTH CAROLINA
WASHINGTON
INDIANA
NORTH CAROLINA
PENNSYLVANIA
MASSACHUSETTS
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7%
%
RANK
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
34
36
37
38
39
39
39
42
43
44
44
46
47
48
49
50
51
STATE
OREGON
NEW YORK
OHIO
NEW JERSEY
ARKANSAS
CONNECTICUT
GEORGIA
ARIZONA
TENNESSEE
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
CALIFORNIA
MICHIGAN
ILLINOIS
NEVADA
RHODE ISLAND
%
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.0
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.1
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)
November 2013
Rank
MSA
UR
Rank
MSA
UR
1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.0
10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.3
2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MDWV Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.9
12
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.5
3
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.6
13
3
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.6
14
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical
Area
5
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.7
15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJDE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area
7
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.0
18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan
Statistical Area
8.3
9
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan
Statistical Area
6.2
19
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
8.5
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.3
20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
9.4
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
6.0
17
7.0
7
10
5.8
6.9
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
6
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.8
7.0
8.1
MD County Unemployment Rates
November 2013
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
1
Howard County
4.5
13
Garrett County
6.3
1
Montgomery County
4.5
13
Talbot County
6.3
3
Calvert County
5.1
15
Baltimore County
6.4
3
Frederick County
5.1
16
Cecil County
6.6
5
Carroll County
5.2
17
Allegany County
7.0
5
St. Mary's County
5.2
18
Caroline County
7.2
7
Charles County
5.3
19
Washington County
7.3
8
Queen Anne's County
5.4
20
Wicomico County
8.2
8
Anne Arundel County
5.4
21
Dorchester County
9.1
10
Harford County
5.8
21
Baltimore City
9.1
11
Kent County
6.2
23
Somerset County
9.4
11
Prince George's County
6.2
24
Worcester County
14.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Field of Dreams (1989)
Architecture Billings Index
January 2008 through November 2013
November, 2013: 49.8
Source: The American Institute of Architects
Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place
December 2006 through December2013
Dec. 08: $697.4 billion
Dec. 13: $573.1 billion
-17.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector
December 2012 v. December 2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Inputs to Construction PPI
January 2001 – December 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Key Commodity Prices
January 2001 – December 2013
Source: BLS: EIA
Construction Materials PPI
12-month % Change as of December 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Shining (1980)
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through December 2013
Source: Conference Board
Coming to America (1988)
• Economy gained momentum
over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming
stock market, lower gasoline
prices, stabilizing global
economy, and consumer
expenditures on interest rate
sensitive durable goods like
housing and autos;
• The current year is associated
with greater certainty regarding
federal budgeting and monetary
policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect - black
swan threats remain: (1) Iran
(2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4)
contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Healthcare reform could slow
full-time hiring over the course
of the year; and
• Further evidence of Maryland’s
economic and demographic
under-performance.
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