Transcript mdrealtor.org

Going Up for the Rebound
On Behalf of
Maryland Association of Realtors
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
January 8, 2013
First Pitch
Historic and Projected World Output Growth
2004 through 2013*
6.0%
4.9%
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.3%
4.6%
3.9%
Annual % Change
4.0%
3.6%
3.3%
2.9%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-2.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2012-2013 data are projections
2012
2013
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2012 Projected
Advanced economies
Euro area
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
United States
Emerging/developing countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central/eastern Europe
Russia
Developing Asia
China
India
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
Brazil
Mexico
1.3%
-0.4%
0.1%
0.9%
-2.3%
-1.5%
-4.0%
Source: International Monetary Fund
2.2%
-0.4%
1.9%
2.2%
5.3%
5.0%
2.0%
3.7%
6.7%
7.8%
4.9%
5.3%
3.2%
1.5%
3.8%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Annual % Change
8.0%
10.0%
Debt by Country
2011
Japan
Italy
United States
France
Canada
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
India
Brazil
Argentina
Mexico
South Africa
China
Indonesia
Russia
Saudi Arabia
0
50
100
150
200
General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP
Source: IMF; BIS; Bloomberg L.P.
250
Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2011 Growth
Rank
1
2
3
12
9
8
6
5
4
11
7
10
Exchange
NYSE Group
Nasdaq
London SE
Swiss Exchange
TSX Group
Bolsa De Medrid
Frankfurt SE
Euronext
Tokyo SE
Hong Kong Exchanges
Shanghai SE
Borsa Italiana
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Index
DJI A
NASDAQ Composite
FTSE 100
Swiss Market
S&P TSX Composite
IGBM
DAX
CAC 40
Nikkei 225
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Composite
FTSE MIB
% Change
5.5%
-1.8%
-5.6%
-7.8%
-9.2%
-14.6%
-14.7%
-17.0%
-17.3%
-20.0%
-21.7%
-25.2%
Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2012 Growth
Rank
6
11
4
2
5
12
10
1
3
9
7
8
Exchange
Frankfurt SE
Hong Kong Exchanges
Tokyo SE
Nasdaq
Euronext
Swiss Exchange
Borsa Italiana
NYSE Group
London SE
TSX Group
Shanghai SE
Bolsa De Madrid
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Index
DAX
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei 225
NASDAQ Composite
CAC 40
Swiss Market
FTSE MIB
DJI A
FTSE 100
S&P TSX Composite
Shanghai Composite
IBEX 35
% Change
29.1%
22.9%
22.9%
15.9%
15.2%
14.9%
7.8%
7.3%
5.8%
4.0%
3.2%
-4.7%
S&P Select Sector Performance
2012
23.5%
Financial
19.9%
Consumer Discretionary
14.2%
Health Care
11.7%
Technology
9.4%
Industrials
8.5%
Materials
8.0%
Consumer Staples
0.3%
Energy
Utilities
-0.7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
12-month percent change
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s
20%
25%
Third Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations
Earnings per Share
Symbol 3Q 2011
3Q 2012
3Q 2012
Surprise
Estimated Reported
Symbol 3Q 2011
3Q 2012
3Q 2012
Surprise
Estimated Reported
COF
$1.77
$1.66
$2.01
$0.35
MMM
$1.52
$1.65
$1.65
$0.00
UTX
$1.47
$1.18
$1.37
$0.19
XRX
$0.26
$0.25
$0.25
$0.00
BTU
$0.87
$0.33
$0.51
$0.18
GE
$0.31
$0.36
$0.36
$0.00
YHOO
$0.23
$0.25
$0.35
$0.10
STI
$0.39
$1.99
$1.98
-$0.01
HON
$1.10
$1.14
$1.20
$0.06
CMG
$1.90
$2.30
$2.27
-$0.03
TXN
$0.61
$0.46
$0.52
$0.06
MSFT
$0.68
$0.56
$0.53
-$0.03
CAT
$1.71
$2.22
$2.26
$0.04
MCD
$1.45
$1.47
$1.43
-$0.04
VFC
$2.87
$3.49
$3.52
$0.03
FCX
$1.10
$0.73
$0.68
-$0.05
COH
$0.73
$0.76
$0.77
$0.01
AMD
$0.15
-$0.15
-$0.20
-$0.05
UPS
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$0.00
DD
$0.60
$0.46
$0.32
-$0.14
Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s
Red Card/
Pink Slip
Recession Watch
as of December 2012
Source: Moody’s Economy
Industrial Production
February 2001 through November 2012
105
Index (2007 = 100)
100
(Base year: 2007)
95
90
80
Feb-01
Jun-01
Oct-01
Feb-02
Jun-02
Oct-02
Feb-03
Jun-03
Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
85
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
1990Q1
1990Q4
1991Q3
1992Q2
1993Q1
1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1996Q1
1996Q4
1997Q3
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR)
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2012Q3
10%
8%
2012Q3: +3.1%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
January 2002 through December 2012
600
400
Thousands
200
0
-200
Dec. 2012:
+155K
-400
-600
Between Dec. 2011 and Dec. 2012, the nation
gained 1,835,000 jobs.
-800
-1000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
December 2012 v. December 2011
Professional and business services
472
Education and health services
452
Trade, transportation, and utilities
351
Leisure and hospitality
320
Manufacturing
180
Financial activities
80
Other services
35
Construction
18
Mining and logging
15
Information
Government
All told 1,835K Jobs
gained
-20
-68
-100
0
100
200
Thousands, SA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
300
400
500
Two-minute Drill
 The automatic sequestration mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 is set to begin
in January 2013. Both defense and non-defense programs will be cut by $54.7 billion
each year from 2013 through 2021 – a total of approximately $109.3 billion per year
or $984 billion through 2021.
 In addition, if Congress does not act by the end of the year, nearly 50 items in the tax
code will expire. Among the most significant items are the “Bush tax cuts” and the
payroll tax cut.
 Bush Tax Cuts: If tax cuts are not extended, approximately 60 percent of taxpayers will
see an increase in their tax rate between 3 and 5 percentage points (e.g. a couple that
makes $90,000/year will pay an extra $2,700 in federal income taxes). Expiring tax cuts also
mean reductions to investment income. If the current rates expire, the tax rate for capital
gains would increase from 15 percent to 20 percent and dividends would be taxed as
normal income, instead of at the current 15 percent rate.
 Payroll Tax Cut: If allowed to expire, roughly 160 million workers will see a 2 percentage
point tax increase in payroll taxes, or an average of $714 or more/year for each worker. The
Joint Committee on Taxation reports that the payroll tax cut will save workers $114 billion in
2012.
Comparison of 2013 Business Taxes, Select States
9
Maryland
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Delaware
West Virginia
8
7
Score*
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Corporate Income
Tax
Individual Income
Tax
Sales Tax
Property Tax
Source: The Tax Foundation
*The relative scoring scale is from 0 to 10, with zero meaning
not “worst possible” but rather worst among the fifty states."
Unemployment
Insurance Tax
2013 State Business Tax Climate Index
Rank
State
Score
Rank
State
Score
Rank
State
Score
1
Wyoming
7.66
18
Colorado
5.37
35
Oklahoma
4.85
2
South Dakota
7.56
19
Pennsylvania
5.33
36
South Carolina
4.81
3
Nevada
7.45
20
Idaho
5.28
37
Hawaii
4.80
4
Alaska
7.34
21
Alabama
5.26
38
New Mexico
4.71
5
Florida
6.88
22
Massachusetts
5.17
39
Ohio
4.55
6
Washington
6.38
23
West Virginia
5.16
40
Connecticut
4.47
7
New Hampshire
6.25
24
Kentucky
5.15
41
Maryland
4.47
8
Montana
6.22
25
Arizona
5.13
42
Iowa
4.47
9
Texas
6.09
26
Kansas
5.10
43
Wisconsin
4.37
10
Utah
6.04
27
Virginia
5.09
44
North Carolina
4.21
11
Indiana
5.95
28
North Dakota
5.03
44
District of Columbia
4.25
12
Michigan
5.86
29
Illinois
5.03
45
Minnesota
4.18
13
Oregon
5.75
30
Maine
5.01
46
Rhode Island
4.12
14
Delaware
5.74
31
Nebraska
4.96
47
Vermont
4.08
15
Tennessee
5.67
32
Louisiana
4.91
48
California
3.67
16
Missouri
5.46
33
Arkansas
4.90
49
New Jersey
3.40
17
Mississippi
5.37
34
Georgia
4.86
50
New York
3.40
Source: The Tax Foundation
*The relative scoring scale is from 0 to 10, with zero meaning
not “worst possible” but rather worst among the fifty states."
Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
November 2012 v. November 2011
Absolute Change
Professional & Business Services
18,500
Education & Health Services
8,500
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
1,400
Mining, Logging, and Construction
1,400
Leisure & Hospitality
700
Information
-400
Other Services
-500
Financial Activities
-2,900
Manufacturing
Government
US Total (SA):
+1,889K; +1.4%
-4,500
-6,200
-10,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MD Total:
+16.0K; +0.6%
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
October 2012 v. October 2011
Absolute Change
Professional & Business Services
11,300
Leisure & Hospitality
3,900
Other Services
1,900
Education & Health Services
1,100
Mining, Logging, and Construction
800
Financial Activities
-400
Government
-500
Information
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Baltimore Total:
+11.3K; +0.9%
MD Total (NSA):
+33.4K; +1.3%
-700
US Total (SA):
+1,900K; +1.4%
-2,100
Manufacturing -4,000
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
October 2012 v. October 2011
Absolute Change
Education and health services
10,000
Financial activities
4,500
Professional and business services
2,800
Government
2,500
Mining, logging, and construction
2,400
Other services
2,200
Leisure and hospitality
1,500
Manufacturing
Information
200
DC MSA Total:
+21.7K; +0.9%
US Total (SA):
+1,900K; +1.4%
-300
Trade, transportation, and utilities -4,100
-6,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1,000
4,000
9,000
14,000
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
November 2012 v. November 2011 Percent Change
Rank
State
%
Rank
State
%
Rank
State
%
1
North Dakota
4.7
17
Washington
1.7
34
Nebraska
0.7
2
Utah
3.1
19
Massachusetts
1.5
34
South Dakota
0.7
3
Hawaii
3.0
19
North Carolina
1.5
37
Maryland
0.6
4
Texas
2.6
21
Virginia
1.3
37
New Jersey
0.6
5
Arizona
2.5
22
Nevada
1.2
39
Wisconsin
0.5
6
Oklahoma
2.4
22
Oregon
1.2
39
Wyoming
0.5
7
Colorado
2.3
24
Florida
1.1
41
Kansas
0.4
8
Montana
2.2
25
Arkansas
1.0
42
Delaware
0.2
9
Idaho
2.1
25
New York
1.0
43
Connecticut
0.1
9
Indiana
2.1
25
Tennessee
1.0
43
Maine
0.1
9
Kentucky
2.1
28
Illinois
0.9
43
Mississippi
0.1
9
Louisiana
2.1
28
Vermont
0.9
46
Alaska
-0.3
13
Ohio
2.0
30
Alabama
0.8
46
New Hampshire
-0.3
14
California
1.9
30
Iowa
0.8
48
District of Columbia
-0.4
14
Minnesota
1.9
30
Michigan
0.8
49
Rhode Island
-0.5
14
South Carolina
1.9
30
Pennsylvania
0.8
50
New Mexico
-0.7
17
Georgia
1.7
34
Missouri
0.7
51
West Virginia
-1.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.4%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
November 2012
Rank
State
Rate
Rank
State
Rate
Rank
State
Rate
1
North Dakota
3.1
18
Maryland
6.6
35
Indiana
8.0
2
Nebraska
3.7
18
Massachusetts
6.6
36
Florida
8.1
3
South Dakota
4.4
20
Delaware
6.7
37
Kentucky
8.2
4
Iowa
4.9
20
Missouri
6.7
38
New York
8.3
5
Utah
5.1
20
Wisconsin
6.7
38
South Carolina
8.3
5
Wyoming
5.1
23
Alaska
6.8
40
District of Columbia
8.4
7
Oklahoma
5.2
23
Idaho
6.8
40
Oregon
8.4
7
Vermont
5.2
23
Ohio
6.8
42
Georgia
8.5
9
Hawaii
5.3
26
Arkansas
7.0
42
Mississippi
8.5
10
Kansas
5.4
27
Maine
7.2
44
Illinois
8.7
11
New Hampshire
5.6
28
West Virginia
7.3
45
Connecticut
8.8
11
Virginia
5.6
29
Alabama
7.5
46
Michigan
8.9
13
Minnesota
5.7
30
Tennessee
7.6
47
North Carolina
9.1
14
Louisiana
5.8
31
Colorado
7.7
48
New Jersey
9.6
14
Montana
5.8
32
Arizona
7.8
49
California
9.8
16
New Mexico
6.2
32
Pennsylvania
7.8
50
Rhode Island
10.4
16
Texas
6.2
32
Washington
7.8
51
Nevada
10.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.9%
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)
October 2012
Rank
MSA
UR
Rank
MSA
UR
1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD5.1
WV
11 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
2
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
5.2
11
3
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
5.8
11 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
8.2
4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
6.2
14 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
8.3
4
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
6.2
14
6
Baltimore-Towson, MD
6.8
16 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
7
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ
6.9
17
7
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
6.9
18 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
9.6
9
St. Louis, MO-IL
7.2
19 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
10.5
10
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
7.7
20 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
11.7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8.2
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,
8.2
FL
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PANJ-DE-MD
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island, NY-NJ-PA
8.3
8.6
8.7
MD County Unemployment Rates
October 2012
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
1
Howard County
4.7
13
Prince George's County
6.5
1
Montgomery County
4.7
14
Talbot County
6.7
3
Calvert County
5.1
15
Baltimore County
6.9
4
Queen Anne’s County
5.2
16
Allegany County
7.3
5
Frederick County
5.3
16
Caroline County
7.3
6
Charles County
5.4
18
Cecil County
7.8
6
St. Mary’s County
5.4
19
Wicomico County
7.9
8
Anne Arundel County
5.6
20
Washington County
8.0
9
Carroll County
5.7
21
Somerset County
9.2
10
Garrett County
6.3
22
Dorchester County
9.4
11
Kent County
6.4
23
Baltimore City
9.7
11
Harford County
6.4
24
Worcester County
9.8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Pad Save
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
January 1995 through December 2012
10%
9%
15-yr
30-yr
8%
Rate
7%
6%
5%
3.35%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Source: Freddie Mac
2.66%
Home Sale Prices – Maryland & United States
Percent Change from Preceding Period
2001Q1 through 2012Q3
6%
Maryland
United States
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Source: FHFA House Price Index
*The HPI is calculated using home sales price
information from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages.
Housing Inventory by Suburban MD
November 2012 v. November 2011
20
Nov-11
18.1
18
Nov-12
Months of Inventory
16
14
11.8
12
9.9
10
8.9
9.1
9.1
7.7
8
6.4
6.1
6.0
6
4.3
3.1
4
2.3
3.1
2
0
Calvert
Cecil
Charles
Frederick
Montgomery
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Nov. 2011: 8.5 months; Nov. 2012: 5.3 months
Prince George's
St. Mary's
Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction
November 2012 v. November 2011
30
28.4
Nov-11
Nov-12
Months of Inventory
25
20
15.3
15
11.6
10
5
10.1
9.4
8.2
6.9
8.4
4.9
8.1
6.8
4.6
9.8
6.2
6.0
3.6
0
Anne
Arundel
Baltimore
City
Baltimore
County
Harford
Howard
Carroll
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Nov. 2011: 8.5 months; Nov. 2012: 5.3 months
Queen
Anne's
Talbot
Home Sales for Seven Largest Maryland Counties
November 2012 v. November 2011 Percent Change
Detached Housing Units
Rank
Jurisdiction
Attached Housing Units
%
Rank
Jurisdiction
Condo Units
%
Rank
Jurisdiction
%
1
Frederick County
39.6%
1
Frederick County
61.0%
1
Baltimore County
80.0%
2
Baltimore County
33.7%
2
Baltimore City
35.4%
2
Baltimore City
39.1%
3
Anne Arundel County
26.3%
3
Baltimore County
14.8%
3
Anne Arundel County
28.3%
4
Montgomery County
25.1%
4
Anne Arundel County
14.1%
4
Prince George's County 21.4%
5
Howard County
20.7%
5
Montgomery County
6.3%
5
Howard County
21.2%
6
Baltimore City
-1.2%
6
Howard County
-6.3%
6
Montgomery County
12.2%
7
Prince George's County -4.7%
7
Prince George's County -11.0%
7
Frederick County
Source: MRIS/RBI
-21.4%
Home Building Permits
for Select Maryland Counties
YTD 2012 Q3 v. YTD 2011 Q3 Percent Change
Single Family
Jurisdiction
YTD
2012 Q3
Multi-Family
YTD
2011 Q3
YTD
2012 Q3
Total %
Change
YTD
2011 Q3
Montgomery County
886
799
1,286
885
29.0
Howard County
898
650
250
313
19.2
Anne Arundel County
692
669
390
258
16.7
82
92
831
222
190.8
Frederick County
666
572
112
60
23.1
Prince George's County
649
508
-
5
26.5
Harford County
551
397
55
26
43.3
Charles County
545
464
-
132
-8.6
Baltimore County
489
404
-
Baltimore City
Source: Maryland Data Center
Ranked by total permits.
-
21.0
Put me in, Coach
2005
2006
2007
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
2005 – December 2012
120
100
80
Dec-12
65.1
60
40
20
0
Source: Conference Board
Source: Census Bureau
Nov-12
Jun-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Mar-11
Oct-10
May-10
Dec-09
Jul-09
Feb-09
Sep-08
Apr-08
Nov-07
Jun-07
Jan-07
Aug-06
Mar-06
Oct-05
May-05
Dec-04
Jul-04
Feb-04
Sep-03
Apr-03
Nov-02
Jun-02
Jan-02
Year to Year % change
U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales
January 2002 through November 2012
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store
December 2012 v. December 2011
9.8%
Wholesale
7.0%
Luxury Dept.
4.5%
Department
4.1%
Apparel
1.5%
Discount
Drug
-4.0%
-2.2%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
12-month % change
Source: International Council of Shopping Centers
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Source: Autodata Corp.
GM
Ford
Chrysler
Honda
Toyota
Nissan
Others
Oct-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-05
Jun-05
Feb-05
Oct-04
Jun-04
Vehicle Sales (millions)
National Vehicle Sales
June 2004 through December 2012 (SAAR)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through November 2012
1.5%
One-month Percent Change
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
November 2012 = 95.8
where 2004=100
-1.0%
Source: Conference Board
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
-1.5%
Fourth Quarter
 Economy hit a soft patch;
 2013 could be very different
 Recession not imminent;
 Many headwinds remain and
 Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2)
 Whither Maryland?
Israel/Iran (3) Europe;
depending on…;
the nascent recovery could
easily falter; and
Thank You
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