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Viral load blips in HIV infected children from the CHIPS cohort: what do they mean? Delane Shingadia1, Katherine J Lee2, Deenan Pillay3, A Sarah Walker2, Gareth Tudor-Williams4, Ali Judd1 and Diana M Gibb1 on behalf of the Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study (CHIPS) Steering Committee. 1 Great Ormond Street Hospital for Sick Children, London, UK; 2 MRC Clinical Trials Unit, London, UK; 3 University College London, London, UK; 4 St Mary’s Hospital, London, UK Background During periods of viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy (ART) many HIV-infected individuals have transient periods of viraemia, where HIV RNA viral load temporarily becomes detectable: • these “blips” in viral load are thought to represent random biological and statistical variation rather than clinically significant elevations in viraemia [1] • not a predictor for longer-term virological or immunological failure in adults [2-4]. Although there are a number of papers describing blips in adults on ART, there are no reports of blipping in children. As children generally have lower virological suppression rates than adults, and higher viral load at ART initiation, patterns of blipping may be different in children. • Blips occurred in children of all ages from 1 to 15, although were more common in children who initiated HAART at younger ages (Figure 1). Age at HAART initiation was a better predictor of blipping than current age (Figure 2). • Blips occurred after a median of 1.4 years sustained virological suppression. • The average blip viral load was 118 copies/ml during first-line and 167 during second-line (ranksum p=0.68), with 23 (21%) and 17 (16%) being >500 and >1000 copies/ml respectively and all under 40,000 copies/ml. • Blips have little effect on CD4 or CD8 (Table 2) Figure 2: Univariable and multivariable predictors of blips: Poisson Regression Univariate models Multivariate model Sex (girls vs boys) Age at HAART (per year older) Objectives p=0.05 CD4% at HAART (per 5% increase) Viral load at HAART (per log10 copies/ml) To explore the incidence, characteristics, predictors and subsequent consequences of blips in children with virologic suppression (<50 copies/ml) in the Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study (CHIPS) cohort of HIV infected children in the UK and Ireland. Blips significantly more commo n with: • initiating HAART younger • 1 year of suppression • second-line • non-NNRTI containing HAART B/C event before HAART 0-3 years 4-12 years 13 + years Current Age The Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study (CHIPS) CHIPS is a multicentre cohort of HIV-infected children under care in the UK and Ireland since 1996 [5]. Children are under care at one of 39 hospitals in the UK and Ireland, and account for approximately 90% of all children reported to the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood (NSHPC) and alive in 2005 [6]. 1997-9 2000-2 2003-5 Current calendar year Duration of suppression <1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4+ years p=0.03 First-line Second-line Methods Population: Children who start HAART (3 or more drugs from 2 or more classes or Previous blips including TDF/ABC) without prior exposure to ART. p<0.001 None 1 or more p=0.22 NNRTI-containing ART Switching to second line: HIV-1 RNA >50 copies/ml, and any switch of 3 or more p=0.03 PI-containing ART drugs (regardless of reported reason) or a switch of 2 drugs with reported reasons being for ‘failure’ (CD4/viral load/clinical failure or resistance). 0 Period of sustained virological suppression: the time from the first of two consecutive undetectable viral loads (<50 copies/ml) to the last viral load <50 copies/ml before confirmed viral load failure (persistent viral load >50 copies/ml) or switch to second- or third-line treatment. Blip: one or more detectable viral loads 50 copies/ml between two undetectable viral loads (<50 copies/ml) <280 days apart, during a period of virological suppression, without a change in treatment (ignoring single drug substitutions for simplification/personal reasons and single drug intensifications). STATISTICAL METHODS We described the blips in terms of their viral load and changes in CD4 and CD8, and evaluated predictors of the blipping rate during periods of sustained virological suppression using univariable and multivariable Poisson regression based on backwards elimination using the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Finally we explore the effect of blipping on virological failure using time-dependent models. Results 595 of the 1065 children enrolled in CHIPS to December 2005 started HAART naïve of whom 347 (58%) ever achieved sustained virological suppression <50 copies/ml on either first or second-line. 78 of these children experienced a blip (Table 1). Second-line 595 (100%) 300 (50%) 132 (100%) 60 (45%) 684.6 98.8 59 (20%) 19 (14%) (4%) (1%) (1%) 81 11 (8, 14) 12 5 2 0 43 12 2 2 22 95.2 19 (13, 29) 118 (51, 39839) 7.2 (4.7, 11.0) (32%) (20%) (8%) (3%) (0%) 28 25 (17, 39) 9 17.6 15 (5, 43) 167 (51, 36442) 8.7 (6.0, 12.3) Figure 1: Proportion of children reaching suppression who blip by age at HAART initiation % of children reaching suppression who blip 10 20 30 40 50 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR and 95% CI) 4 Table 2: Summary of CD4 and CD8 before, during and after a blip At blip 3 858 (634 -1314) 3 970 (720 -1190) CD4 (cells/mm ) CD8 (cells/mm ) Difference to previous -20 (-127-+140) p=0.85 +4 (-178-+128) p=0.78 Difference to post +17 (-117-+130) p=0.44 +35 (-110-+190) p=0.07 Using time dependent models for the outcome virological failure: • no evidence for a higher rate of virological failure in children who had ever blipped (HR=0.74 [95% CI 0.46-1.17] for having blipped compared to never having blipped, p=0.20: adjusted for pre-HAART variables – sex, age, CD4, viral load and CDC B/C events; line of ART; and current calendar year) • children who blipped in the last year (adjusted HR=0.93 [0.59-1.47], p=0.77), or blipped to >1000 copies/ml (adjusted HR=0.84 [0.35-2.06], p=0.71) were also not at higher risk of subsequent virological failure. Summary Table 1: Characteristics of blips and children who blip First-line Number of children Children reaching sustained virological suppression Child years at risk with sustained suppression Children blipping (% of those reaching sustained suppression) (see Figure 1) 1 blip 2 blips 3 blips 4 blips Total number of blips Blip rate (per 100 child years) (95% CI) After first blip Number of subsequent blips Child years at risk after first blip Rate (per 100 child years) (95% CI) Viral load at blip (Geometric mean (range)) Age at blip (years) (median (IQR)) 1 Note: duration of suppression categorised into years as in the univariate model was not a significant predictor in the multivariable model, but children suppressed for more than 1 year had significantly higher blipping rates than those suppressed for <1 year. First-line Second-line • Transient rises in viral load are fairly common, arising in 22% of children with maximal suppression on HAART. • Blipping is more common: in children starting HAART at younger ages in children on second-line therapy after a previous blip in children on non-NNRTI containing regimens in children suppressed for more than one year • The fact that we were able to identify a number of statistically significant predictors of blipping suggests there may be causes beyond natural or assay variation in children. • This is in contrast to at least one study in adults which found no significant predictors of blipping [4], potentially due to adherence which can be more challenging in children who depend on a caregiver for medication and are often unaware of their diagnosis. • But blips have little effect on CD4 and CD8, and do not increase subsequent rate of virological failure. Acknowledgments Funding: NSHPC is funded by the Health Protection Agency, and has also received support from the UK Department of Health and the Medic al Research Council. CHIPS is funded by the Department of Health and in the past received additional support from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boehringer Ingelheim, GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, Abbott, and Gilead. Committees and participants (in alphabetical order): CHIPS Steering Committee: K Butler, K Doerholt, S Donaghy, DT Dunn, T Duong, DM Gibb, A Judd, EGH Lyall, J Masters, E Menson, V Novelli, C Peckham, A Riordan, M Sharland, D Shingadia, PA Tookey, G Tudor-Williams, G Wait MRC Clinical Trials Unit: DT Dunn, T Duong, L Farrelly, DM Gibb, D Johnson, A Judd, G Wait, AS Walker National Study of HIV in Pregnancy & Childhood, Institute of Child Health: J Masters, C Peckham, PA Tookey We thank the staff, families & children from the following hospitals who participate in CHIPS (in alphabetical order): Republic of Ireland: Our Lady's Children’s Hospital Crumlin, Dublin: K Butler, A Walsh. UK: Birmingham Heartlands Hospital, Birmingham: Y Heath, J Sills; Blackpool Victoria Hospital, Blackpool: N Laycock; Bristol Royal Hospital for Children, Bristol: A Finn, A Foot, L Hutchison; Central Middlesex Hospital, London: M Le Provost, A Williams; Chase Farm Hospital, Middlesex; Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, London: D Hamadache, EGH Lyall, P Seery; Ealing Hospital, Middlesex: V Shah, K Sloper; Glasgow Royal Hospital for Sick Children, Glasgow: C Doherty, R Hague; Great Ormond St Hospital for Children, London: M Clapson, S Fasolo, J Flynn, DM Gibb, N Klein, K Moshal, V Novelli, D Shingadia; Hillingdon Hospital, London; Homerton University Hospital, London: D Gurtin; John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford: A Pollard, S Segal; King's College Hospital, London: C Ball, S Hawkins, D Nayagam; Leeds General Infirmary, Leeds: P Chetcuti; Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester: M Green, J Houghton; Luton and Dunstable Hospital, Luton: M Connan, M Eisenhut; Mayday University Hospital, Croydon: J Baverstock, J Handforth; Milton Keynes General Hospital, Milton Keynes: PK Roy; Newcastle General Hospital, Newcastle: J Clarke, K Doerholt, C Waruiru; Newham General Hospital, London: C Donoghue, E Cooper, S Liebeschuetz, S Wong; Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee: T Lornie; North Manchester General Hospital, Manchester: C Murphy, T Tan; North Middlesex Hospital, London: J Daniels, EGH Lyall, B Sampson-Davis; Northampton General Hospital, Northampton: F Thompson; Northwick Park Hospital, Middlesex; M Le Provost, A Williams; Nottingham City Hospital, Nottingham: D Curnock, A Smyth, M Yanney; Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woolwich: W Faulknall, S Mitchell; Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children, Belfast: S Christie; Royal Edinburgh Hospital for Sick Children, Edinburgh: J Mok; Royal Free Hospital, London: S McKenna, V Van Someren; Royal Liverpool Children’s Hospital, Liverpool: C Benson, A Riordan; Royal London Hospital, London: B Ramaboea, A Riddell; Royal Preston Hospital, Preston: AN Campbell; Sheffield Children's Hospital, Sheffield: J Hobbs, F Shackley; St George's Hospital, London: R Chakraborty, S Donaghy, R Fluke, M Sharland, S Storey, C Wells; St Mary's Hospital, London: D Hamadache, C Hanley, EGH Lyall, G Tudor-Williams, C Walsh, S Walters; St Thomas' Hospital, London: R Cross, G Du Mont, E Menson; University Hospital Lewisham, London: D Scott, J Stroobant; University Hospital of North Staffordshire, Stoke On Trent: P McMaster; University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff: B O' Hare; Wexham Park, Slough: R Jones; Whipps Cross Hospital, London: K Gardiner; Whittington Hospital, London. 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