Transcript Dia 1

The importance and future of
Reliability
in a complex and turbulent environment
A strategic vision
Harry Roossien
ETE/GRASMECH’09 conference
BSMEE - Bruxelles
Contents
•
Importance of reliability
– Complex: Forces on organisation and reliability
– Turbulent: Technical and economic perspectives
•
Testphylosophies in perspective
– Simulation, Robustness, Virtual
– Acceleration en aggrevation
•
Future of Reliability
– Reliability Maturity Model
Harry Roossien
SonyEricsson
www.sonyericsson.com
> 2002 (<1990 Consultancy, 1990-2002 Ericsson)
(Sr) Reliability Eng.  Group leader 
Section Manager T&V  Quality Officer 
System Eng.  SE Verification Technology  Pre-Development
Platform for Environmental Testing
> 1995
Member  Board  Chairman
www.plot.nl
TAB’s
TENEEST
Reliability WG; HALT WG; WG Mech. test
From Risk to Reliability Training
< 1995, > 2006
Trainer
ik.verniel.nl
TC-104
1. Importance of Reliability
• Product Test-Technical
• Economic
Quality and Reliability – terms and definitions
Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions …
(R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance
•
Quality
– much definitions/approaches
– broad
– perception
•
Reliability
–
–
–
–
explicit  study (models & literature)
quality for a given period of time
quantification (MTTF etc.)
margin
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Transcedent
Product oriented
User oriented
Production oriented
Value oriented
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Arrhenius, Hallberg & Peck
Weibull, distributions
FMECA
Failure rate/availability
Standards (MIL, IEC etc.)
Test programmes
• Fear - Risk averse
• Many reasons for adding – even big programmes always to small
• Need for speed and quality and cost reductions
=> Back to basics
Field INFO
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
Field
return
Field
complaint
Extra test
Extra test
Extra test
Basic Q/R program
Basic Q/R program
Basic Q/R program
Basic Q/R program
Extra test
Basic Q/R program
Why testing
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•
•
•
•
•
•
Customer satisfaction
Simulation real world use
Determine weak spots
Quality/Reliability assurance
Costs
Return rate
Robustness
INSECURE
Check
induced
stress
Prevent
surprises
SAFETY
Improvements
Knowing
product
SIMULATIO
N
PART OF
DESIGN
Process optimisation
KEEP
WORK
It’s all about:
- conformance
- insight
APPROVALS
Turbulence: “Porter’s forces on your organisation”
“New” competition from
South-East Asia and former
Eastern block
New
Entrants
“Due to economical crisis
more critical consumers”
Threat of new entrants
Bargaining power of suppliers
Suppliers
Industry
Competition
Customers
Bargaining power of buyers
Threat of substitue products
Sustitute
Products
Not only competition
=complex of forces=
Costs of Change
Costs/change
Possibilities/costs
1–
Culture/attitude
Contingency  thinking
10 –
100 -
1000 rule
Quality costs (ref. Juran)
100%
Cost level
Quality is a
feature and
addressed
specifically.
Fail costs
Total Quality
Costs
Traditional
Knowledge
Inspection and Prevention Costs
A
B
Quality level
Quality costs (ref. Schneidermann)
100%
Cost level
Quality is working
practice and
integrated
throughout full
company.
Fail costs
Total Quality
Costs
Zero defects
Learning organisation
Understanding
Inspection and Prevention Costs
Integral approach required to minimize costs.
Part of daily practices, everyone, everywhere!
A
B
Quality level
Organisational importance of Reliability
1. Savings on Costs and Time
•
Life Time Costs, efficiency and projectdelays
2. Brandname and consumer trust (loyalty)
•
first choice, second buy
3. Availability
•
•
reliability, repair, maintenance
contractual obligation
4. Differentiating (competitive advantage)
•
•
quality level and perception
value for money  quantification and prove
5. Insight and understanding
•
Physics of Failure, Root Cause Analysis, Modelling  prediction and control
Reliability is efficiency and competitive advantage
- insight and understanding leading to pro-active approaches
- answer to forces and competitions (South-East Asia and former Eastern block)
- response to complex and turbulent environments
Summarized: importance of Reliability
• Technical and economic
• Different from and additional to Quality
• Conformance or insight
• Emerging Competitive advantage
• Effective and efficient testing
• faster
• cheaper
• better
Quality is free (Juran)
Reliability is the proof (…)
2. Testphilosophies in perspective
Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions …
(R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance
• time & margin
Environmental Stress and Test Philosophies
HALT
ROSE Robustness testing
high
Margins/time reduction
Stress cracking
Reliability stress screen
Damage boundary
85/85 test
HT drop/LT drop
Step stress free fall
High temp. vibration
MEOST
med.
SIM
Simulation testing
Reliable simulation
High temperature
Low temperature
Damp heat steady state
Damp heat cyclic
Thermal shocks
Sine vibration
Random vibration
Bump & shock
Life tests (bending,
switching etc.)
Click ratio
Dust test
Perspiration test
Drop test etc.
Aggrevated
Environmental Stress
very
high
Time reduction
6 axes omnidirectional vibr.
Extreme thermal cycling
Power cycling
Damage boundary
Combined testing
low
Use
Accelerated
dy
wk
mth
yr
s
Time
Reliability Roadmap (II)
Robustness
Simulation
Acceleration
$
HASS
HALT
Combined
Testing
Test
filosophy
R
Q
Simulation
Programs
Single
Simulation
p
t
“Demolition curve”
Mmt
focus
Virtual??
Single
Robustness
Robustness
Programs
PoF
ROSE
MEOST
HASS, HAST
ESS
production testing
HASA
time
Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base
?
?
•
Failure Hotel
Test only on the known failure mechanisms. Reliability database
•
Life Cycle Analysis
Base the test(criteria) on the real world conditions the product will face. Eventually with a safety margin.
•
Fix all
No base quality levels, but intention to fix all failures.
Trade off and impact analysis per observed failure.
•
Virtual testing / Zero verification
Based on simulation and modelling confidence on end quality
•
Quality Supply Chain and appropriate Quality Levels
Base the end result on the sum of all part verifications. Determine the quality erosion and related that to end user
quality expectations in time.
•
Tailored testing
Define the tests based on (personal) experiences, feelings and analysis and decide which approach is most effective.
This based on end user quality expectations.
Simulation
Not for the future
Developments
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•
•
•
•
p/f  levels
single test  system thinking
simulation  robustness
test customer
standards  tailored
•
UNDERSTANDING
–
–
•
more info
margins
Note: OK for compliance testing
Margins and ROSE CONCEPT
LEVELS
• Robustness Specification for Environmental Testing
• Method to determine and quantify product robustness
MONITORING
PASS
REQ: BASE
(QUALITY LEVEL)
FAIL
TESTS
REVISION
What is ROSE
The levels correspond to accumulation of failures which disclose the fact
that the technological limit is reached (= state of the art = excellence)
Summary ROSE
•
•
•
•
•
more insight in product quality and robustness (understanding)
quantification of product quality & comparisons (progress/competitors)
time reduction: faster testing and “better” results
cost reduction: prevent overkill
mmt summary: one page overview
•
•
Acknowledged by CEEES for technology
Pre-decessor of HALT
No HALT/HASS
•
•
ROSE is in between
•
standard equipment
•
margins
HALT/HASS is other tests
•
6 axis omnidirectional vibration
•
forced temperature changes
•
power cycling
•
incl. combined stresses
Robustness
Example
•
BT audio streaming headset (with display and cord/cables)
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
Hippix ES series W604
ROSE GRAPH
W04
EXAMPLE
Values are edited for reference and education
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
Hippix TP series W609
ROSE GRAPH
W09
EXAMPLE
Values are edited for reference and education
Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset
Hippix RTL series W628
ROSE GRAPH
W28
EXAMPLE
Values are edited for reference and education
Robustness Growth
HIPPIX ROBUSTNESS
PROGRESS
Reliability
Level per Revision
(RLR)
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
136%
130%
114%
60%
88%
40%
20%
0%
Target
ES W604
TP W609
PP W628
TTC Wxx
HALT testing
• Highly Accelerated Life Testing (design – engineering)
• Highly Accelerated Stress Screen (production)
• 6 axis omnidirectional vibration
• combined with rapid temperature change
• combined with on/off cycling
Comparison test philosophies
Simulation testing
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–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
longer testing,
pass/fail,
proven,
standards,
non-destructive
RCA when necessary
existing tests
Sinle stress
good simulation
field experiences
3 weeks
* except preparations
ROSE/MEOST testing
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
fast testing,
levels,
“new”
based on standards
destructive (TTF)
RCA always necessary
existing tests
single stress
– 1 week
HALT testing
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
fast testing,
levels,
“new”
no standards
destructive (TTF)
RCA always necessary
new test
combined stress
– 1 day *
3. Toekomst van Reliability
A paperless office has about as much chance as a
paperless bathroom
(anonymous)
• Benchmark industy development
• Reliability Maturity
1. Reliability Roadmap
Simulation
Mmt
focus
Robustness
$
Single
Simulation
p
t
R
HASS
Q
Simulation
Programs
Virtual??
HALT
Combined
Testing
Test
filosophy
Acceleration
ESS
Single
Robustness
Robustness
Programs
PoF?
MEOST
ROSE
HVS, HASS, HAST
production testing
time
Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base
?
Utmost dynamic environments
RAFTING ORGANISATIONS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
flat structure – minimum mmt layers
structure organised around core*
3 to 5 core processess
outsourcing of non-core processes
multifunctional and multi employable teams
simple directive structure with clear
tasks, responsibilities and targets
orderly, manoeuvrable (flexible), sober unit,
but extremely good organised for task
* core processes, core activities, core competencies.
RAFT TESTING
Analysis, Modelling or Test
Sources:
Van der Hart and Gelderman, Business Marketing, 2003
Gelderman, Management competencies
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•
•
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speed – fast testing
tailored testing, based on life cycle
appropriate test methods
early testing  or early analysis
immediate feedback
prediction (mixed models, calculations)
Reliability Maturity Model
Analyseren en testen
= breed mogelijk inzicht
= selektie test filosofie
…
Match
VIRTUAL
Target
Compiter
Partner
CALC
FMECA
…
.
HASS.
progr.
HALT.
progr.
PoF &
RCA.
ROSE.
MEOST.
single.
ROSE
comb.
testing
SIM.
progr.
physics
single
SIM
P/F
…
analysis
LCA
What’s your point today … and tomorrow?
…
VIRTUAL
5
6
10
please contact
immediately!
CALC
4
8
…
.
HASS.
progr.
HALT.
progr.
PoF &
RCA.
single.
ROSE
comb.
testing
physics
2
SIM.
progr.
1
single
SIM
P/F
7
3
ROSE.
MEOST.
FMECA
…
analysis
LCA
physics
CALC
LCA
INNOVATORS
PIONEERS
CONSERVATIVES
DEVELOPERS
…
.
HASS.
progr.
HALT.
progr.
PoF &
RCA.
ROSE.
progr.
single.
ROSE
comb.
testing
FMECA
SIM.
progr.
VIRTUAL
single
SIM
theoretics
Reliability Maturity Model
…
Reliability Maturity Model
•
Insight current position
–
–
•
Benchmark your position
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–
•
SWOT
focus areas, analysis or testing
with suppliers/test houses
with competitors
Strategy development
–
–
current and wanted position
vision (how to develop, which direction)
© www.reliability-test.nl
Importance of Reliability
no longer voluntary – it’s a must!
The future
•
Industry need fast, controlled and low cost tools
– competitive advantage
•
Predictions and control
– and Life Cycle Analysis
•
Role of Virtual Simulation and Modelling
– combined with physical measurement and testing (replace?)
– as design tool – interactive & intepretation -
•
Tailored Testing
– based on LCA and rapid test techniques
•
Green environment
– new failmodes and approaches
•
Communication in the complex and turbulent environment
– fragmentation, outsourcing, freelancing
Review and tips
1.
Importance of reliability
–
2.
PLOT
Test phylosophies
–
3.
adapt to contingency, total picture & forces
(follow tendencies)
start with levels testing already now
(insight, prevent underperformance AND overkill)
ROSE - HALT
Reliability maturity
–
find your and partners position and help/use each other
(strategy)
RMM
Thank you!
Let’s enjoy the future together
More information via:
www.bsmee.be
www.plot.nl
www.reliability-test.nl