Transcript Slide 1

BNZ LTER Program Role in the
National LTER Network
LTER Network Decadal Plan
2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting
LTER Network Decadal Plan
Integrated Science for Science and the Environment
(aka ISSE)
Three Themes
1. Land and Water Use Change – the dynamics of urban,
exurban, and working systems
2. Climate Change, Variability, and Extreme Events
3. Nutrient Mobilization and Species Introductions
Funding Mechanisms
No ISSE Program
ULTRA
LTER Working Group Proposals (8) – CNH
Science Council to develop cross network initiatives
Augmentation of NSF LTER Budget
Geophysical Template
External drivers
earthquake, tsunami
Socio-cultural-economic
Template
PULSES: Fire, drought,
storms; dust events,
pulse nutrient inputs;
fertilization
HUMAN
BEHAVIOR
Regulation
Markets
Migration
Institutional
COMMUNITY STRUCTURE
Vegetation turnover time
Trophic structure
Microbial communities
Q5
PRESSES: Climate
change; nutrient loading;
sea-level rise; increased
human resource use
Q1
ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION
Flux, transport, storage,
transformation,
stoichiometry, productivity
Q4b
HUMAN
OUTCOMES
Exposure
risk
Q4
Quality of life
Human health
Perception and value
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Q4a
Regulating: Nutrient filtration,
nutrient retention, C
sequestration, disease
regulation
Provisioning: food and fiber
production,
Cultural: aesthetics &
recreation
Q2
Q3
LTER Network Decadal Plan
Integrated Science for Science and the Environment
(aka ISSE)
Three Themes
1. Land and Water Use Change – the dynamics of urban,
exurban, and working systems
2. Climate Change, Variability, and Extreme Events
3. Nutrient Mobilization and Species Introductions
Funding Mechanisms
No ISSE Program
ULTRA
LTER Working Group Proposals (8) – CNH
Science Council to develop cross network initiatives
Augmentation of NSF LTER Budget
2009 LTER All Scientists Meeting
Integrating Science and Society in an Ever-Changing World
September 14-16, 2009 at YMCA of the Rockies, Estes Park,
Colorado
Important Dates
March 4– second call, including preliminary program
March 9 – Information to sites on funding
March 22 – working group submission opens
April 1 – housing reservations open
May 1 – poster submission opens
June 1 – meeting registration opens
June 15 – housing reservations close; room block released
July 1 –working group and poster submissions close
August 15 – final program
Discussion Issues
Graduate Student Symposium on 13 September
ILTER Meeting on Ecosystem Services on 12 and 13 September
Some funding for travel provided by the LTER Network Office
Working Groups
BNZ LTER Synthesis Issue of
Canadian Journal of Forest
Research (CJFR)
Title: The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal
Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in
Response to Climate Warming
Climate Sensitivity and
Resilience/Vulnerability
Response of White Spruce Growth to Climate (McGuire et
al.)
Response of Stream Flow to Climate (Jones et al.)
Response of Permafrost and Effects of Ecosystems
(Jorgensen et al.)
Changing Moss Communities (Turetsky et al.)
Climate Variability and Snow Shoe Hare Population
Cycles (Kielland et al.)
Long term response of stream flow to climatic warming in headwater
streams of interior Alaska (Jones and Rinehart)
Overview:
• With climatic warming and permafrost thaw, flowpaths through watersheds
underlain by permafrost will likely change
• Predicted shift towards greater base flow contributions to stream flow and less
flashy storm hydrographs
• Objectives of research to synthesize patterns in stream flow hydrographs over
29 year record for three headwater streams draining watersheds with varying
extents of underlying permafrost.
Factors Affecting Permafrost Degradation
Topography
• Insolation
• Runoff
• Lapse Rate
• Snowfall
Vegetation
• Albedo
• Shading
• Insulation
• Snow Interception
Bedrock
Surface Water
• albedo
• convective heat
Loess
Thaw
Lake
Retransported Silt
Stratified Silt and Sand
Thick Peat
Soil Texture
• Peat vs Gravel vs Silt
• Drainage
• Moisture
• Thermal properties
Ground Water
• advective heat
Gravel Riverbed
Ground Ice
• Thaw settlement
Consequences of Permafrost Degradation
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Hydrologic reorganization
Stream export changes (sediment, DOC)
Soil carbon sequestration or loss
Trace gas emissions
Habitat shifts
Habitat use and wildlife abundance
Infrastructure Damage
Overland transport
Approximately 70% of Interior Alaska susceptible to permafrost loss
Goals for synthesis chapter
1) Use meta-analysis to address key
assumptions about moss and boreal
ecosystem
• Moss vs. vascular NPP
• Moss vs. vascular decomposition
• Changing moss abundance with N, temp, fire
2) Apply insight to understand implications of
changing moss abundance across LTER sites
10
Hare cycle on Riparian trap grid BNZ
LTER 1998-2008
120
Population size
-1
Density (hares ha )
SpruceM0
SpruceMh
RipM0
RipMh
100
8
6
4
2
80
60
40
20
0
0
1998
Jun
2000
2002
2004
2006
Aug
Nov
2008
1.00
Remains of lynx-killed
snowshoe hare
Kaplan-Meier survival estimates
0.90
Rip(S)
Spruce(S)
0.80
0.70
Survival
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Disturbance, Successional
Dynamics in Resilience/Vulnerability
Changing Plant Communities in Floodplain Turning Points
(Hollingsworth et al.)
Forest Growth Dynamics in Upland and Floodplain Turning Points
(Yarie et al.)
Spatial and Temporal Structure of Fungal Communities (Taylor et al.)
Alaska’s Changing Fire Regime (Kasischke et al.)
Fire and Resilience (Johnstone et al.)
Fire, Trees, and Nitrogen (Mack et al.)
Insect and Pathogen Disturbance Regimes (Juday et al.)
Research Questions (Hollingsworth)
• Are there identifiable understory turning points that
mirror the overstory changes in succession?
• Have changes in climate been manifested in
unexpected understory vegetation changes?
Introduction
Methods
Results:
Cover
Results:
Composition
Conclusions
FP3 – White Spruce
120
Control
Fertilizer
Sugar
Cumulative Basal Area Growth (cm2)
100
Sawdust
}
}
= 8.3970 *X
= 5.18616 * X
Drought = 3.7290 * X
80
a
60
40
20
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Concluding remarks (Taylor et al.)
• Fungal diversity in soil is staggering
• We cannot yet fully capture fungal diversity
• Taxa that appear to be rare at a given sampling time and place are not
necessarily regionally rare or unimportant
• Boreal forest fungal diversity has strong patchiness at multiple spatial scales,
moderate seasonal dynamics, and yet unexpected inter-annual stability
• Soil horizon is an over-riding factor in fungal niche partitioning
• Relating all this diversity to function will be a gargantuan but exciting and
worthwhile undertaking
Key questions (Johnstone)
• How well do these conceptual models fit
our understanding of forest dynamics in
Alaska?
– Evidence for stable cycles?
– Evidence for feedback mechanisms that
generate these cycles?
– Evidence of fire generating threshold
responses?
Fire, nitrogen loss, and nitrogen availability
in black spruce forests of Interior Alaska
Michelle C. Mack1, Leslie A. Boby1, Edward A.G. Schuur1, Jill F.
Johnstone2, Teresa N. Hollingsworth3 and F.S. Chapin, III3
University of Florida
2 University of Saskatchewan
3 University of Alaska Fairbanks
1
Regional Syntheses of
Resilience/Vulnerability
Climate Feedbacks of Alaska’s Boreal Forests (Euskirchen et al.)
Resilience of Human Communities in interior Alaska (Kofinas et al.)
Overall Synthesis of
Resilience/Vulnerability
Vulnerability and Resilience of Alaska’s Boreal Forest to Climate
Change: A Synthesis of Bonanza Creek LTER Research (Chapin et al.)
The changing effects of Alaska boreal
forests on the climate system
E. Euskirchen, A.D. McGuire, F.S. Chapin III, T.S. Rupp
Key Questions:
1. What are the feedbacks to climate in
Alaska’s boreal forest?
2. What can we say about the magnitude of
these climate feedbacks, both historically and
in the future?
3. What are the primary unknowns in obtaining a
better understanding of these feedbacks, and
what role can earth system models play in
helping us better understand these feedback?
Important Dates for Special Issue
November – Titles
January – Outlines (haven’t received one outline)
February 20th – Powerpoint presentations of progress
(haven’t received two)
April 17 – Rough Drafts to Terry, Roger, and myself
May 1 – Feedback from Terry, Roger, and myself
June 1 – Submission of manuscript to me
June 8 – Send all manuscripts to CJFR on CD
Breakout Groups
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Biophysical changes in the boreal forest: permafrost and climate
feedbacks (Jorgenson, Euskirchen)
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Climate sensitivity of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Jones,
McGuire)
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Changing community dynamics of mosses, vascular plants (Turetsky,
Hollingsworth)
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Microbial and pest response to climate change (Taylor, Juday)
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Changing fire regime and its impact on nitrogen and resilience
(Kasischke, Johnstone, Mack)
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Changing animal dynamics and ecosystem services (Kielland,
Kofinas)
Charge to Breakout Groups
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Within Paper Coordination
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Across Paper Coordination
•
Papers need to be frame in Resilience/Vulnerability framework –
Introduction, Discussion, Conclusion.
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8000 words maximum
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Different perspectives of co-authors are fine. Key thing is for paper to
clarify these different perspectives and outline how we move forward
to reconcile the perspectives.