Transcript Slide 1

LITHUANIAN MACROECONOMIC
REVIEW
Jonas Guzavičius, vice-president
Lithuanian Confederation of Industrialists
2013-05-09, Riga
Source: Eurostat
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
* - European Commission Autumn forecast for 2012
-2.4
Cyprus
Greece* -6.4
-3.2
-2.4
Italy
Portugal
-2.3
Slovenia
-1.7
-1.4
Spain*
Hungary
-1.3
-0.9
Czech Republic
Netherlands
-0.6
Denmark
-0.3
EU27
-0.6
-0.2
Finland
Euro Area
-0.2
0.0
France*
Belgium
0.2
0.7
Ireland*
United Kingdom
0.7
Germany
0.2
0.8
Sweden
Luxembourg*
0.8
Austria
0.3
0.8
Malta
Romania
0.8
Bulgaria
2.0
-2.0
Slovakia
0.0
2.0
2.0
Poland
Estonia
4.0
3.2
3.6
5.6
6.0
Lithuania
Latvia
BALTIC ECONOMIES GROW AT A FASTEST PACE IN
THE EU
GDP change in 2012, compared to 2011, %
8.0
Source: Eurostat
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
* - European Commission Autumn forecast for 2012
Greece* -19.9
Latvia
-9.2
-8.3
-5.8
Italy
Slovenia
-5.7
-4.2
Ireland*
Portugal
-3.7
Denmark
-5.6
-3.1
Finland
Hungary
-2.6
Bulgaria
-5.3
-2.5
Cyprus
Romania
-2.0
Netherlands
-5.2
-1.6
Czech Republic
Lithuania
-1.2
United Kingdom
-5.0
-1.1
EU27
Spain
-0.9
0.1
France*
Euro Area
0.6
Luxembourg*
-0.8
1.2
Belgium
Estonia
1.6
Austria
2.5
-10.0
Germany
-5.0
2.7
0.0
Malta
4.5
5.0
Slovakia
5.8
12.4
15.0
Sweden
Poland
HOWEVER, GDP IN THE BALTIC REGION IS BELOW
PRE-CRISIS LEVELS
GDP change in 2012 compared to 2008, %
10.0
SO FAR ONLY EXPORT HAS EXCEEDED PRE-CRISIS
LEVEL IN LITHUANIA
Change of GDP and GDP components in 2012, compared to 2008, %
40.0
30.1
30.0
20.0
10.0
1.9
0.0
-3.6
-5.2
-10.0
-12.8
-20.0
-30.0
-28.9
-40.0
Household
consumption
expenditure
General
government
consumption
expenditure
Source: Lithuanian Statistics Department
Gross fixed capital
formation
Exports of goods
and services
Imports of goods
and services
Gross domestic
product
FOREIGN TRADE IS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO GDP GROWTH.
STATE OF INVESTMENT IS WORSENING
Change of GDP and GDP components, compared to the corresponding period
of the previous year, %
25.0
19.3
20.0
13.9
15.0
10.0
5.0
9.910.1
7.9
7.5
6.1
4.9
5.5
3.3 3.2
1.2
0.0
2.1
0.8 0.8
-0.1
4.4 4.1
3.9
3.3
-0.9
-5.0
-3.3
-3.9
-7.7
-10.0
Household
consumption
expenditure
General
government
consumption
expenditure
Gross fixed capital
formation
2012Q1
Source: Lithuanian Statistics Department
2012Q2
Exports of goods
and services
2012Q3
2012Q4
Imports of goods
and services
Gross domestic
product
CIS AND BALTIC REGIONS ARE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS
TO EXPORT GROWTH
Change in export (excluding mineral products) in 2012, compared to the
previous year, %
30.00
25.00
23.81
23.56
20.00
15.73
15.70
15.00
10.00
7.66
5.00
0.00
Export-total
Source: Lithuanian Statistics Department
CIS
EU(excluding Latvia
and Estonia)
Latvia and Estonia
Other
EU REMAINS THE MAIN TRADING PARTNER OF LITHUANIA.
HOWEVER, THE CIS MARKET IS RAPIDLY GAINING WEIGHT
Structure of Lithuania's export markets, %
100%
12
12
11
27
28
8
90%
80%
23
30
70%
60%
Other
50%
CIS
EU
40%
30%
64
61
61
62
2010
2011
2012
20%
10%
0%
2009
Source: Lithuanian Statistics Department
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Source: Eurostat
* - Unemployment rate for 2012 Q3
14.4
14.2
Slovakia
Cyprus
10.4
Poland
6.9
6.7
Malta
Romania
Austria*
4.5
5.1
7.2
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
7.4
Denmark
5.4
7.4
Belgium
Germany
7.7
Finland
5.6
7.8
United Kingdom*
Netherlands
8.1
Sweden
9.8
10.4
France
Estonia
10.7
EU-27
9.9
11.0
Hungary
Slovenia
11.2
11.8
EA-17
Italy
12.3
Bulgaria
13.2
14.4
Latvia
Lithuania
14.7
17.0
Ireland
Portugal
26.1
20.0
Spain
25.0
26.4
30.0
Greece
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN LITHUANIA IS HIGHER
THAN EU AVERAGE
Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) in 2012 Q4, %
Source: Eurostat
-2
-2
-3
* - Change in unemployment rate in 2012 Q3, compared to 2011 Q3
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
Austria*
France
Slovakia
Malta
Poland
Sweden
Luxembourg
Belgium
Finland
Hungary
-0.6
-0.7
Lithuania
Romania
Estonia
-1.1
-0.5
United Kingdom*
Latvia
-0.5
Denmark
-0.3
0.7
Netherlands
Ireland
0.7
Czech Republic
-0.3
0.7
Bulgaria
Germany
0.7
EU-27
1.2
-1
EA-17
0
1.3
1
Slovenia
2
2
Italy
2.9
3
Portugal
3.2
4
Spain
5
4.8
5.8
6
Cyprus
Greece
HOWEVER UNEMPLOYMENT IS DECLINING
GRADUALLY
Change in unemployment rate in 2012 Q4, compared to the corresponding
period of the previous year, %
7
DROP IN JOBLESSNESS IS OBSERVED IN ALL LABOUR
MARKET SEGMENTS
29.1
32.4
35
25.4
30
30.5
Unemployment rate, %
1.9
5
0
Total unemployment
rate
Males
2008Q4
Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics
Females
2009Q4
2010Q4
Youth
2011Q4
2012Q4
Long run
6
7.1
4.4
7.4
8.5
11.9
12.1
11.6
14.1
15.1
17.3
19.1
15.3
13.7
13
8.4
10
7.9
15
17.1
15.6
20
19.6
25
WAGES ARE RISING SLOWLY, BUT ARE BELOW PRECRISIS LEVEL
Change in average gross monthly earnings, %
7.0
6.0
5.0
5.7
4.5
4.0
3.0
2.9
Whole economy
Public sector
Private sector
2.0
1.0
0.0
2012/2011
-1.0
-2.0
Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics
2012/2008
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
WAGES WILL GROW FASTER THAN PRICES IN 2013
Change in average gross monthly earnings and average annual inflation, %
25
20
19
15
11
10
4.5
5
3
4.1
4
3
1.3
4
2.5
0
2008
-5
2009
-4
2010
2011
2012
-3
-10
Change in average gross monthly earnings, %
Source: Lithuanian Department of Statistics
Average annual inflation, %
2013 F
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