Transcript Document

Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy &
opportunities to tighten it
Sumit Sharma
TERI, New Delhi
Background
 India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production
and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times,
respectively
 53 cities million plus cities. expected to grow to 85 by 2025
 31% urbanisation , expected to grow to 38% by 2025.
 Unprecedented growth of personal vehicles in India.
 Aspirations to own personal vehicles reinforced by limited
public transport
 Growth of vehicles far more in cities, leading to congestion
and emissions and effects over health .
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•Auto Fuel Policy : 2002
•BS-I to BS-IV
•Auto Fuel Vision 2025
Why at all we worry about air
pollution ?
Air quality in India
Exceedence
10
2011
2010
1
0.1
0.01
SO2
NOx
More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM
RSPM
Source: CPCB,
NAMP data
Satellite view (AOD)
Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10
NOx & vehicles
Banning old vehicles
Shift industries
Cleaner fuels and
vehicles
OK, air pollution is high !
So what ?
Impacts
• Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of
childhood asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function,
cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.
• GBD estimates, about 6 lakh mortalities attributed annually to ambient air
pollution in the country.
• WHO, 2012 Diesel exhausts are carcinogens
• Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc
• It warms too ..
• Impacts image …
OK it impacts,
but why transport sector ?
Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles
• Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities
• Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population
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Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc
MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11),
http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf
Vehicular growth
• About 28000 two wheelers,
and 4200 cars added to India’s
vehicular fleet daily (2011)
• As per Census 2011, 21%
households have two wheelers
whereas 4.7 % have
cars/jeeps/vans
• More growth expected
Data WDI, 2011
Source apportionment study (PM)
PM2.5(Residential)
(Residential)
PM10
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
914
18
28
4
6
4
49
Transport
Transport
Domestic
Domestic
Others
Others
0
24
26
18
19
16
574
5
28
26
5
48
34
19
0%
0%
3
4
11
46
Bangalore
Bangalore
10
7
24
15
Pune
Pune
Kanpur
Kanpur
Paved road & soil dust
Paved road & soil dust
DG sets
DG sets
• Share of
transport
sector increases
if we move
from PM10 to
PM2.5 (finer
fractions)
• In nonindustrial cities,
it is the largest
source
Industries
Industries
Secondary
Secondary
Source: CPCB, 2010
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Source apportionment study- NOx
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Transport – Its not just PM !!
• Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India
• Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary
PM formation and acids
• NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level
Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)
• BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming
potential.
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•Auto Fuel Policy has been
made !!
•Reductions have been made in
vehicular emissions !!
Auto Fuel Policy 2002
REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION
• One set of standards for air quality
• Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the
country
• Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where
better quality fuel is presently provided.
• Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and
may end up choking their engines
• No road map after 2010
Effects of introduction of BS norms
(2010) on emissions
2500
Emission (kt/year)
2000
-19%
1500
1000
-36%
500
-36%
0
No control
PM10
BS-II
BS-I
NMVOC
PM reductions have been more than NOx
NOX
TERI’s estimation
Impact of AFP on air quality (RSPM)
*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms
** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.
Data source : CPCB, NAMP
Learnings from Auto Fuel Policy, 2002
• Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not
achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the
country
• Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided
by AFP 2002. Further advancement required
• Focus more on PM control and less reductions achieved in
NOx , and hence, further advancements required
• Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-road
reductions as depicted during emissions tests.
•It’s the old vehicles which
contribute
•Why invest in newer fuels and
vehicles ?
• Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to
about 350 million
• Share of older vehicles is going to diminish
• However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new
vehicles
Benefits of cleaner fuel
• Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur
content which will help to improve air quality.
• It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty
and heavy duty diesel vehicles.
• Reach of CNG would still be limited.
• Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would
reap considerable air quality benefits.
Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms
Scenario
BAU
ALT-I
ALT-II
ALT-III
ALT-IV
Description
Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any
further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020
This is going to cost really high ?
• Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery
investments needed to transition to ULSFs in
India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)
• An incremental increase of few % of the present
fuel price per litre will do
• In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon.
• Few extra months of on-going diesel price
increase will do.
•OK lets do some hotspot? cities !
• Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle
sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
• Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM—
still on BS-III ?
• Treating citizens differently
•Why not other sectors ?
Its not the question of either/or
•Transport (dominant in cities)
•Cook-stoves
•Industries
•Why urgency ?
•Lets do it by 2025 !
May cost more in future
Health benefits would reduce
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Benefits could be larger ..
• Health impacts of only PM
• NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or
synergistically aggravate the impacts
• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants
• Climate benefits are additional
• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon
concentrations too
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•Why India should do it ?
Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented
low-sulfur fuels years ago
Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico,
and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in
the near future
Conclusions
• Air quality in Indian cities is severely deteriorated
• Transport sector is one of the important source
contributing to finer fractions of PM, and NOx
• Effects on health, agriculture, acid rain, and global
warming.
• After AFP,2002, no road map for future.
• BS-IV cities show lesser increase or decrease in PM
concentrations and hence BS-IV quality fuels (50 ppm
sulphur) should be provided all cross the country by 2015.
‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India
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Conclusions
• BS-norms needs to be advanced to BS-V and BS-VI
levels (by 2019) to improve air quality and reduce
health impacts
• Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (10 ppm) is critical to achieve
BS-VI levels through installation of DPFs
• Commissioning of an effective I&M system across
country
Inuse vehicle testing program
Strengthed I&M program
•
Relook at driving cycles to prescribe
emission
norms
• Development of a fleet modernization programme
• Measures for reducing energy demand from the
sector
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Thanks
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