Transcript Document

The University Community Next Generation Innovation Project
Gig.U
Big Broadband:
Changing the Equation
to Accelerate Innovation
Blair Levin
Executive Director, Gig.U
Presentation TTI/Vanguard
December 6, 2011
Problem
How do we accelerate the arrival of the next
generation of broadband networks and services?
Spoiler Alert: The Answer
C + O < (r)R + EB
Why is it important?
Technological Leadership
Creates ecosystem of knowledge for designing, building and
operating networks and devices
Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth
Early action leads to leadership
Winner
Mobile telephone
Incremental Value Add
Invention
Ubiquity
Internet
INNOVATION
Act now
Accelerated
pace of
development
means less
time to
react – so the
slow lose out
Television
Telephone
Electricity
Potential
for
competitive
advantage
high
value
add
medium
value add
Act later
low
value
add
Time
Loser
Why is it important?
Technological Leadership
Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth
Increases the “adjacent possible” for every sector
What Drives Productivity?
Contribution to Long-term Productivity Growth
11%
Improved
Labor Quality
Technological
change and other
factors
37%
Capital Investment
Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Lessons in Innovation:
Bring everything to the table
In April 1970, a liquid
oxygen tank on the Apollo
13 space craft exploded.
Among other problems,
Mission Control must find a
way to filter the air for the
crew on their return trip.
They assemble the crew’s
available resources and
built a contraption called
the “mailbox.” The crew
replicated this fix on board
and arrived home safely.
Lessons in Innovation:
Enable the adjacent possible
Gutenberg used a
wine press for his
printing press.
Engineers used analog
vacuum tubes to make digital
computers.
NeoNurture incubators
are made from auto
parts.
Every talk at this conference is a function of someone
figuring out a new adjacent possible….
Where does innovation take place?
The biggest leaps in growth are driven
by meta-ideas…
Gather
information
Analyze
information
Revise
course of
action
Act on it
Improving the exchange of information
improves the conditions for innovation.
How to apply the lessons of innovation?
In the last 2 decades, three revolutions have
transformed knowledge exchange:
Data
Collecting and providing
trillions of data points
previously unavailable
Computing
Analyzing data
previously
unmanageable
Communications
Transfer data and
analysis anywhere,
anytime, to anyone.
Broadband is our common collaborative platform
Networks
Users
Broadband Ecosystem
Devices
Applications
Improvements in each element of the ecosystem
drive improvements in others in a virtuous cycle.
Broadband is our common collaborative platform
If devices need to
improve 100x in 10
years, what do the
networks need to do?
Networks
Users
Broadband Ecosystem
Applications
If we replace matter with software, what
does that do to demands on the network?
Devices
If devices get
smaller, what
does that do to
the demands
on networks?
Broadband; the first medium whose fundamental
value is collaboration
1 to 1
Telegraph
Telephone
1 to Many
Radio
Television
Many to the
Long-Tail
YouTube
Huffington
Post
CERN
Gamers and
the Retrovirus
Enzyme
Group
Collaboration
Big data requires big pipes to enable real time collaboration
But we can see the bottlenecks ahead…
“DNA Sequencing Caught in Deluge of Data”
By Andrew Pollack, November 30, 2011
BGI, based in China, is the world’s largest genomics research
institute, with 167 DNA sequencers producing the equivalent
of 2,000 human genomes a day.
BGI churns out so much data that it often cannot transmit
its results to clients or collaborators over the Internet or
other communications lines because that would take weeks.
Instead, it sends computer disks containing the data, via
FedEx.
What are barriers to it happening quickly?
• Chicken and egg economics
• In the United States, competitive economics
• Everywhere, the wrong idea about government policy
affecting the deployment of networks
Chicken and Egg Economics
Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive
demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall:
C + O > (r)R + EB
C – Capital Expenditures
O– Operating Expenditures
r – Risk
R- Revenues
EB- Ecosystem Benefits (Benefits that drive increased
revenues outside the communities where the new or
incremental investments are made.)
Worse in United States
C + O > (r)(.5)R + EB
R- Revenues for Underlying Infrastructure Spilt between
Two Facilities, Creating Greater Risk for Long-Term Financing
Diffusion Lag and the problem of yesterday’s logic
Diffusion of Innovations
Organizations adopting
Sunk costs:
costs of
reengineering
factories, industries.
Sunk thinking:
imagined costs
of reimagining
prevailing logic.
Time after introduction
Policy Problem: Winning the Past
Connecting
America
High-Performance
Knowledge
Exchange
How do we fundamentally view the public stake in
communications networks and society?
Connecting America
High Performance Knowledge
Exchange
Message
Simple
Complex
Politics
Simple
Complex
Imperative
Deployment
Use
Mechanism
Provide subsidy
Deliver high performance service
Focus
Equal network everywhere
Right network for use case
Population Beneficiary
Rural
All
Network Beneficiary
Wire line telephone
Consumer / use determined
Prime Purpose
Lower prices in high cost areas
Higher economic, social value
How would spending priorities for Universal Service
change?
Directional change as
indicated by consumer
behavior
Actual change
Decrease
Increase
Wireless for rural
communities
Increase
Decrease
Institutional support for
higher speed connectivity
Increase
No change
Increase
No change, though
likely to decrease
Support for:
Wireline to rural homes
Adoption
“The danger in times of
turbulence is not the
turbulence. It is to act
with yesterday’s logic”
– Peter F. Drucker
Solution: Change the Math
C + O < (r)R + EB
And how do
we do that?
Background for Gig.U
National
Broadband Plan
Google Fiber
Initiative
History of
Universities and
Internet
• Need for critical mass of next
generation test beds
• Demonstrated community ability
and desire to organize to improve
next generation business case
• Need for seamless experience
between campus and community
• Place where innovation happens
Lead to …
The University-Community Next Generation
Innovation Project
Over the spring and summer of 2011, 37 leading research
universities, working in partnership with their local
communities, formed Gig.U
Our Mission
• Accelerate the deployment of worldleading, next generation networks in the
United States
Our Purpose
• Provide an opportunity to lead in the next
generation of ultra-high speed network
services and applications
Not News for Washington Post but…
所美国大学筹备各自建立1Gbps网络社区“GigU”
Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch
Not News for Washington Post but…
所美国大学筹备各自建立1Gbps网络社区“GigU”
Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch
China Flexes Its FTTx Muscle
China's massive buildout has ensured that the fiber
center of gravity has swung to Asia/Pacific. By 2016,
Ovum predicts, 50 percent of all wireline broadband
subscribers in the region will be FTTx, compared with 16
percent in Europe and 14 percent in North America.
Light Reading, December 5, 2011
University-communities: a strategic market
opportunity
Advantages of University-communities
Demand for
Bandwidth
=
Greatest
Cost of
Deployment
=
Least
Positive
Impact of
Network
Access
=
Greatest
State of Play of Networks in University
Communities
Campus (R&E
Networks)
Business
District/MDUs
(Generally Good
BB)
Residential
(Variable)
Opportunity: Create a Seamless Broadband Experience
between the Campus and the Community
University-communities:
Birthplace of Network Based Innovations
Audio and Video:
CUSeeMe (Cornell), SIP
(Columbia U, Braille
Music ( UofAriz)
Workstations (Sun
Micro from Berkeley,
Stanford)
WWW: Gopher
(UMinn), Web
Routers (CISCO from
Stanford)
Large scale integrated
circuits (CalTech)
Browser: Mosaic,
Netscape (UofIll)
Social Networking:
Facebook (Harvard),
Newsgroups/USENET
(UNC, Duke)
Search: Google
(Stanford), Lycos
(CMU)
Photoshop / ImagePro
(Umich)
Access
to Key
Inputs
Security/IDS (Arbor
Networks from UM)
Economic clusters require access to abundant
strategic inputs for success
1800’s
1900’s
2000’s
• Access to abundant flowing water
• Access to raw materials
• Access to abundant electricity
• Access to abundant transportation
• Access to abundant bandwidth
• Access to abundant human intellectual capital
In 21st Century economy, we can lower barriers
to innovation by increasing bandwidth.
Key: Increase understanding of need to bring
bandwidth to where it fuels the most innovation.
Clusters that depend
on the ability to
capture and send
data and collaborate
with non-local
sources require
greater bandwidth
than others.
Demand for
Bandwidth
=
Greatest
Cost of
Deployment
=
Least
Positive
Impact of
Network
Access
=
Greatest
It Can Be Done
Reduce Cap Ex
• Build to Demand Model
• Access to ROWs, Facilities
• Regulatory Time
Reduce Op Ex
• Access Payments
• Regulatory Costs
Reduce Risk
• Build to Demand
• Spread Cost to Multiple Providers
Increase Revenues
• Demand Aggregation
• Marketing Platform
• New Services
Increase
Ecosystem Benefits
• Distributed Innovation
• Seeding Long-Term Growth
But It Requires a Different Approach at the Local Level
Key to Changing the Math—Asymmetry
Large out of pocket dollar
benefits for provider
Very small out of
pocket costs to
community institutions
Implications:
The benefits of world-leading networks
Improved
platform for
research
Economic growth,
investment and job
creation
Improved
platform for
small business
development
“Gr8 for
Job
Creation”
– @JohnDoerr
Twitter 7/28/11
New ways to
distribute the
benefits of the
information
revolution to all
parts of the country
New approaches to
health care,
education, job
training and other
critical social needs
Use Case
In-Home Care
Real time
collaboration with
Big Data Devices
(MRI and Genetic
Sequencing)
Medical Theater
Health
Care
Other Use Cases
Information
Based (Big Data)
Business Services
Gaming and
Entertainment
On-Line 3D Retail
Education/Job
Training
Public Sector
Administration
But we really have no idea……
International Efforts
Other countries investing in Gigabit connectivity through policy driven actions . . .
“Home Internet May Get Even
Faster in South Korea”
By Mark McDonald, February 21, 2011
South Korea already claims the world’s fastest
Internet connections — the fastest globally by
far — but that is hardly good enough for the
government here.
By the end of 2012, South Korea intends to
connect every home in the country to the
Internet at one gigabit per second. That would
be a tenfold increase from the already blazing
national standard and more than 200 times as
fast as the average household setup in the
United States.
“Cheap, Ultrafast Broadband?
Hong Kong Has It”
By Randall Stross, March 5, 2011
Hong Kong residents can enjoy astoundingly fast
broadband at an astoundingly low price. It
became available last year, when a scrappy
company called Hong Kong Broadband Network
introduced a new option for its fiber-to-thehome service: a speed of 1,000 megabits a
second--known as a “gig”-- for less than $26 a
month. In the United States, we don’t have
anything close to that. But we could. And we
should.
. . . Others with Gigabit networks include Japan, Sweden, Spain, Turkey
Other International Efforts
England has different strategies to build faster broadband…
“Osborne announces 10 ‘super
connected cities”
By Maijia Palmer, November 30, 2011
The chancellor has pledged an additional £100m
fund to help create 10 “super-connected” cities
across the UK, which will have broadband speeds
of 80 to 100 megabits a second…“It means
creating new superfast digital networks for
companies across our country. These do not exist
today. See what countries like China or Brazil
are building, and you’ll also see why we risk
falling behind the rest of the world,” Mr
Osborne said.
“London’s CityFibre to build a
$800 million gigabit network”
By Om Malik, November 3, 2011
When it comes to fiber-based broadband, the
U.K. lags behind its European neighbors, which
have been aggressive in rolling out really fast
networks. Many critics blame British Telecom
dragging its feet mostly because it doesn’t have
any real competition.
Other United States Efforts
Google
U.S. Ignite
Roll-0ut
1Q12
Geographic Cluster Model
Service Offering, 2Q12
http://usignite.org/
Research Facilities:
Moving to 100 Gig Connections
“National LambdaRail provides
100 Gigabit Connection for NOAA
at Supercomputing 2011. Next
Generation Research Capabilities
Will Be Demonstrated Using Cisco
Technology and NLR Transport
Network”
By Bizjounrals.com, November 7, 2011
US Dept. of Energy awards cPacket
Bizjournals.com - Nov 7, 2011
The company plans to use the grant to develop a
100 gigabit per second scalable Network
Intrusion Detection System to help protect data
center, commercial organizations and
government organizations, which are
susceptible to security problems
“Research institute deploys
100 Gigabit Ethernet from core
to closet”
By Shamus McGillicuddy, November 28, 2011
To support its high-performance computing
(HPC) requirements, a research institute built a
new 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) backbone with
Brocade.Researchers at the Howard Hughes
Medical Institute (HHMI) in Chevy Chase, Md.,
generate large volumes of data imaging, which in
many cases requires 10 GbE connections at the
campus access layer, according to Spartaco
Cicerchia, director of enterprise systems for
HHMI.
What Happens Next With Gig.U?
Receive and
Review RFI
Materials
Presentation
to Members
1Q12
Community
Consultations
Includes:
•Local Governments
•Universities
•Utilities
•MDU Owners
•Anchor Institutions
•R&E Networks
Community
Action
What is likely to happen?
Like all great journeys, the level of optimism
is greater than the quality of the map…..