Thinking Like A System

Kevin Palmer The Center for Sustainable Solutions The University 4 January 2007

Introduction

What is the greatest challenge facing humankind?

How would you solve it?

Overview

• The issue • The argument • It’s the system • Thinking in systems • Amazing examples • Not just theory • Can we do it?

The Issue

We’re at zero balance on earths – we’ve only got one, no spares.

This has Consequences for the Global…

• Economy • Community, and • Environment

…Simultaneously

Economists’ view

Well being Human Survival Goods & Services Raw Materials Natural Resources

The Argument

No matter what happens now, future technology and invention will save us

The Answer

YES!

Innovation and technology have always been our edge to solving hard problems… But it takes understanding of the system and investment to develop a sustainable future

The Trick

Is knowing: • Which challenges can be overcome with technology • When will we know when a technology is ready • How will we change systems to accommodate new technology

The Other Trick

Is understanding that new technologies don’t just happen. It takes: • Changes in mindset and problem-solving approaches • A willingness to use future investments to obtain superior technologies • Coordination with the markets we create and dominate • Balance to enhance economy, quality of life and environment

Vision

It begins with the vision to understand that things can and should get better for the next generation.

We have always had visionaries who could see the future and set the world toward change

It’s the System

• Sustainable System Conditions • Technologies • Approaches

Choosing a Framework

• Derived from fundamental scientific

principles

• Simplifies the complexity of

systemic (environmental) issues

• Provides a framework for planning

and action

• Uses a “systems” perspective

The Rules of This System

Closed with respect to matter Open with respect to energy

Basic Science – All Scientists Agree

• Matter and energy do not disappear • Matter and energy tend to break down or disperse • We consume the order, structure, and quality of matter • Photosynthesis is the major process by which order is produced

The Way Nature Works

In cyclical natural systems, waste does not exist. Waste = Food.

Step 1 - bauxite is mined in Australia Step 6 - metal ingot cured and shipped to Germany to be rolled Step 2 - bauxite is trucked to plant for chemical processing 1 ton ore yields up to 1/2 of Aluminum Oxide Step 3 - shipped to Norway for processing Step 7 - ingot is heated to 900  F and rolled into coil Step 8 - coil is stored and cold rolled into sheet Step 4 - oxide sits at smelter site for up to 2 months Step 9 - sheet metal is shipped to England punched and formed into cans Step 5 - 2-hour smelting reduces 1/2 of oxide into 1/4 ton of metal Step 10 - can is washed, dried, primed and painted Step 11 - can is lacquered and coated inside Step 12 - cans are palletized, stored, and shipped Step 14 - bottler cleans and fills with product Step 15 - cans are packed in promotional boxes palletized and shipped to retailer Step 16 - Can is purchased, contents consumed within a few minutes and is thrown away

Material Flows

In cyclical natural systems, waste does not exist. Waste = Food .

Linear Industrial Processes: Waste is created faster than it can be reconstituted to quality resources. Take-make-waste Raw Materials Manufacturing Process 6% Product 94% Waste 80% of products discarded after single use

(Source: NAE /

Factor 4 p. xx, 1997)

It is estimated that 99% of the original materials used in the production of, or contained in, the goods made in the US become waste within 6 weeks of sale

.

(Attributed to Paul Hawken,

Factor 4

, 1997)

System Condition 1

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing: … concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust.

What does this mean?

Who’s got an example?

System Condition 1

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust.

This means substituting certain minerals that are scarce in nature with others that are more abundant, using all mined materials efficiently by reusing them in closed loops, and systematically reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

Telling Indicators

• In 2000, globally, mines extracted 900M tons of metal and produced 6B tons of waste ore.

• Projected US clean-up costs for mines is up to $24B • Worldwide, mining provides 1% of the jobs worldwide and is responsible for 5% of the work related deaths (14,000/year)

System Condition

2

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing: …concentrations of substances produced by society.

What does this mean? Who’s got an example?

System Condition

2

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically Increasing concentrations of substances produced by society.

This means systematically reducing dependence on synthetic compounds known, or suspected to be, harmful to living systems.

Telling Indicators

The cost for clean-up of synthetic organic chemicals from all sources in the US released to the environment – about

$87B

from 1981 – 2010 – This does not include mining or nuclear waste or any future materials to be regulated Source: EPA

System Condition 3

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to increasing: … degradation by physical means.

What does this mean?

Who’s got an example?

System Condition 3

In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to increasing degradation by physical means. This means that the productive mechanisms of nature are not diminished in quality or quantity, and we must not harvest nature beyond its capacity to regenerate.

Telling Indicator - Frontier Forests 8,000 Years Ago

Source:

World Resources 2000-2001

Telling Indicator - Frontier Forests Today

Source:

World Resources 2000-2001

Why are Forests Important?

• Biodiversity – on Earth Habitat for >65% of all species • Carbon – >80% of Earth’s carbon • Ecosystem goods & services value trillion/year in US - >$5 • Cultural value – world-wide Supports >60 million people • Economic value – billion to global economy or approximately 2% of global GDP.

US wood products >$400

System Condition 4

In a sustainable society: Basic needs are met worldwide.

What does this mean?

Who’s got an example?

System Condition 4

In a sustainable society, basic needs are met worldwide.

This means using resources efficiently, fairly and responsibly, so that the needs of people on whom we have an impact (near and remote), and the future needs of people not yet born, stand the best chance of being met.

Telling Indicators

Afghanistan facts:

• 23.8 million  44 million by 2025 – 3.88% population growth rate, 3

rd

in the world – Life expectancy - 43.1 years – Median age – 18 years – Infant mortality rate -147/1000 or 14.7% vs. <0.7% in US • 13% access to safe drinking water – 39L/day/person (minimum std is 50 Ldp) • 12% access to sanitation - 21% in 1970 • Less than 3% forest lands • Percent arable lands – 12% including forests – Food production dropped by 40% 1995 to 2000

Source: Military Science of Environmental Security Brief by COL Chris King, PhD, USMA

Thinking Like a System – Bio-mass Energy Production

Biomass Processing Direct Use Storage Electricity Generation Heat to Facilities Additional Uses

Bio-mass Energy to Future Energy

Adaptability?

Other H2 Sources?

Other Electricity Sources?

Direct Solar, Wind?

Types?

Agricultural? Municipal?

Food Service?

Technology?

Gasification?

Purification?

Composting?

Transmission?

Distribution?

Infrastructure?

Direct Use Biomass Processing Storage

Sources?

Local?

Regional?

Location?

Distributed?

Regional?

Technology?

Infrastructure?

Location?

Distribution?

Regional Grid?

Distributed?

Mini-Grid?

Method?

Fuel Cell?

Micro-Turbines?

Combustion?

Electricity Generation Heat to Facilities Additional Uses

• What does the current distribution

Give it Context

system look like?

• What is the current power generation

How does this opportunity apply to the evolution of secure power generation?

capability?

• What new technology is needed?

• What investments should we make now help in meeting the future?

• Is the opportunity a transition technology?

• Where and how will we use it?

Electricity Generation Direct Use Biomass Processing Heat to Facilities Storage Additional Uses

What is the Relationship to Local Agriculture, Regional Development, Security, and Quality of Life?

• Could a new, high energy yield crop become more profitable?

• Could farmers become more profitable and help keep lands out of development?

• Can we help stimulate wealth and create a better local relationships?

• Are other side products or materials developed or used that support other markets?

• Who can partner with farmers for space for system?

Electricity Generation Direct Use Biomass Processing Heat to Facilities Storage Additional Uses

What is the relationship between this energy source and the community?

Biomass Processing

• How can local energy participate?

• Can local manufacturers support development of the requisite new technology?

• Can our installation tip local energy markets or move toward renewables?

• Can this option result in new industry/wealth?

• Can local industry benefit?

Electricity Generation Direct Use Heat to Facilities Storage Additional Uses

Who might want to partner?

Biomass Processing

• Universities and researchers • System manufacturers/developers • Local utilities • Agriculture • Commerce department • Business development • Community and political leaders • Others

Electricity Generation Direct Use Heat to Facilities Storage Additional Uses

Amazing Examples

Newest Hybrid Introductions

Oshkosh hybrid refuse truck Peterbilt Class 7 hybrid utility truck IC/Enova hybrid shuttle bus Freightliner Class 6/7 hybrid utility truck ISE hybrid cutaway shuttle bus

Candle Wax Rocket Fuel

• Paraffin-based fuel • By-products are CO2, and water, not toxic materials • Less money because it’s cheaper to produce, and less harmful to the environment and workers.

How would you design a sewage plant if you had to live downwind?

Living Machines™ turn sewage into clean water and flowers.

Dr. John Todd

Innovative Energy Systems

Ascending-Descending Strategy

Natural Environment hydrogen via electrolysis

Solar Thermal Solar PV

Natural Gas/ Bio gas rejected heat

Fuel Cell Heat Recovery Steam Generator Lighting, Computers Daylighting/ natural ventilation

rejected heat

Steam Turbine Electrical Energy Chilled Water Cooling

rejected heat

Absorption chilled water Desiccant Cooling regen. hot water

rejected heat

Boiler Domestic Hot Water/ Water mullion

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Geothermal Environment

Ford Dearborne Plant

Is investing an additional $8M in a green roof, porous pavement for parking lot (reduced cost), and a constructed wetland for landscaping.

Savings will include elimination of a $40M storm water management system and $6M budgeted for landscaping.

Build it Better - BedZED

New Materials - Aerogel Insulation

• Super lightweight solid of 96% air • Clear Windows with the energy efficiency of a solid wall • Reduces noise twice as much as a double pane window

Better Building Materials

Agri-Board

• Produced from compressed wheat or rice straw • 2x as energy efficient • 2X Fire resistant • Stronger • Pest resistant • Reduced lumber framing by up to 90%

Solar Energy from the Moon

One Solution – Look to Nature

• Spider Web (thread strength) • Slug mucous (adhesive) • Abalone Shell (protective shell) • Barnacle (adhesives) • Lotus flower (waterproofing) • Geckos (small hairs as glue) • Pond Scum – 95% efficient in photosynthesis

Working with Community Towards Sustainability

• • • • New York City, the State, and Catskills Watershed

New York City has some of the cleanest drinking water in the world The water source is the Catskill Mountain Watershed (1,600 sq mi) In 1990 EPA mandated that all public supplies of surface water be filtered for microbes spend $4-$6 billion dollars to meet these mandates

Approach

• NYC worked with upstate communities on land use, development planning, and agricultural best management practices that would improve water quality.

• Communities and NYC purchased select properties to be held undeveloped and in public trust.

• NYC spent $550 million to improve their water system, upgrade aging sewage treatment plants, and replace failing septic systems in the Catskill watershed area • Another $278 million has been spent for conservation easements and partnerships to protect forest lands • The state of New York is also contributing funds to these programs

Results

Water quality improved to the point where the investment in system upgrades for systems within watershed was unnecessary Cost Avoided = $6 Billion Open Space preserved = 258,716 acres Total investment = $833 M

Not Just Theory

2020 Sustainability Goals Zero Waste:

concept of what constitutes waste in Nike’s system includes an expanded

Zero Toxic Substances:

biological systems includes substances known or suspected to be harmful to human health or the health of

Closing the loop:

includes product and process design to move toward closed loop processes.

Sustainable Growth and Profitability:

includes developing new partnerships, business models, and influencing change

NIKE

• System Condition 1 – Down-cycling now; recycle soon – Substituting materials (leather tanning without heavy metals) • System Condition 2 – PVC (in everything and is now virtually completely out) – Organic cotton (pesticide and #4 worker welfare) • System Condition 3 – Boxes (lighter, stronger) • System Condition 4 – Established a code of conduct, working with NGOs and subcontracted factories and workers, micro loans, education, health care, working in homes and villages not in the city

Military Sphere of Influence – 97% Rule

Army Power Projection Platforms Other Army Installations Army Support Facilities Navy Bases Marine Bases Air Force Bases

Can we do it?

Can we change and make it better for our species in the future?

No Excuses

The GDP of the United States is $10Trillion/yr Purchases of the Federal Government alone account for 17% of the total GDP

That’s $1,700,000,000,000

The Question

Do we want to leave the world a better place for them?

Unless…

“Someone like you cares a whole awful lot Nothing is going to get better It’s not…”

The Lorax by Dr. Seuss