Transcript Slide 1

Terrorism and Hazardous Weather Events:
What have they in common?
7th Annual CRHNet Symposium
Fredericton, NB
27-29 October 2010
Jacques Descurieux
Meteorological Service of Canada
Page 1 – July-6-15
INTELLIGENCE
ANALYSIS
COMMUNICATIONs
Why
Terrorism
• "Hurricane Katrina: framing the issue – A
weapon of mass destruction without criminal
dimension”
• A. Thaad, Admiral USCG (Ret.)
• Floods pose “as great a threat as terrorism”
• Sir Michael Pitt
• 5000 passengers taken “hostage”
• YVR 2009
• Montreal
“roof collapses” March 2008
• YVR December 20/21 2008
• Katrina
• Xynthia
• Montreal
“heat wave” August 2010
Intelligence?
Intelligence
=
Information
Analysis?
Analysis
=
Knowledge
Chronology of the Montreal
Case
Collapsing roofs cases
Associated
Risk
Factors
Weather
Elements
Event
Type
Direct
Impacts
Risk
Perception
Varied
Precip.
Cycles
Multiple
Snow
Falls
Wind
Speed
>80km/h
Frost
&
Thaw
Cycle
Snow
Drifts
Flat Roof
Roof
Collapse
Casualties
Bavaria
Winter
Storm
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Montreal
Winter
Storm
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
03/08
Vernon
01/09
?
Yes
Vulnerability?
• 50 000 flat roofs in Montreal as a result of
age and ensuing reduced structural
integrity.
Qualitative Comparative
Analysis (QCA):
• Summarizing data
(data exploration and typology)
• Checking the coherence of data
(systematic cross case comparisons)
• Corroborate existing theories or
assumptions
• Elaborate new theories or assumptions
• Test new theories or assumptions
What is “QCA”?
• A small to intermediate “N” (2 to 10 and
10 to 100) cases comparisons and
analytical tool
• “Qualitative” because it is a case-based
technique
• Introduces the concept of “conjunctural
(configurational) causation”
Basic Glossary
• Determinant or Condition: an
explanatory variable that may affect the outcome.
Determinants can be “necessary” and/or
“sufficient”
• Outcome: a variable to be explained by the
determinants or conditions
• Boolean minimization: Reducing complex
“expressions” into minimal formula
Associated
Risk
Factors
Weather
Elements
KATRINA
(New
Orleans)
XYNTHIA
(SW France)
Precip.
Wind
speed
>160km/h
Storm
surge
High tide
Tropical
Cyclone
1
1
1
?
1
Midlatitude
cyclone
1
1
1
1
1
Direct
Impacts
Indirect
Impacts
Combined Impacts
Dykes
failure
Floods
Loss of
agric.
land
Social
Economic
Environ.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Weak dyke
Loss of services
sys.
CQA risk communication and response table:
Risk Communication
Cognitive Determinants of
Response
Was the message:
Did the message tell:
Events and
date
Type of Hazardous
weather
Understandable ?
Usable?
Actionable?
What
could
happen?
How
will
this
evolve?
How
will it
affect
me?
How can I
cope with
this
weather
hazard?
Creston (07/06/30)
Severe
thunderstorm/Microburst
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Penticton
(07/11/12)
Wind storm
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
Lake Okanagan
(08/07/10)
Montreal
(08/03/07)
Severe winter storm
1
1
1
1
1
1
YVR
(08/12/21)
Snow storm
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
Camrose
(09/08/01)
Severe thunderstorm
Gust front (80-100 km/h)
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mt. Laurier
(09/08/04)
Tornado
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
Durham/Vaugha
n (09/08/20)
Severe
Thunderstorm/Tornados
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Atlantic
(09/08/23)
Hurricane Bill
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Montreal/Quebec
(09/12/09)
Snow Storm
1
1
1
1
1
1
New Brunswick
(10/01/02)
Weather Bomb/Storm
Surge
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
Southern Strait
Winds gust < 50 knots
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
10/04/02
Which hypothesis?
• Are any determinants of response to
threats important in hazardous weather
risk communication?
• Are there “configurational causation”
relationships between the dynamic or
synoptic signature of the weather event,
the “elements” (components) of the
weather event, the vulnerability(ies) and
the ensuing impact(s)?
• Which condition(s) is (are) always present
where the outcome is present/absent?
Communications?
Communication
=
Knowledge Sharing
or
Knowledge Transfer
MSC CMAC
NavCanada
MSC PSPC
YVR
Ground Ops
Airlines
YVR
De-Icing
Weather Warning
YVR
Snow removal
Fig. 1: Simplified weather warning “value chains”
Based on the Dec. 20, 2008 Snow event in YVR
Airlines
Airport Station
Airlines
National
Dispatch/Ops
AIRPORT
AIRPORT
NavCan
Ground
Contractors
Ground Ops
Airport Ops
NavCan
Meteorological
Private Sector
National Ops
WPM
Fig. 2: A Simple Aviation
“Value Network”:
CMAC
TAF – TAF+
VCMAC
DISSEMINATION
Special Weather Bull
Warnings
Regional
SPC
It is not about the
communication
channel.
It is the message that
matters!
Socio-contextual and cognitive determinants
of individual response to threat:
Socio-contextual factors:
• Perceived preparedness
• Trust
Responses:
• Information/knowledge
gathering
Cognitive factors:
• What could happen?
• Preparedness
• Risk avoidance
• How will it evolve?
• How will it affect me?
• How can I cope?
Adapted and simplified from:
Lee, J.E. and Lemyre, L (2009)
Lee, J.E. and al. (2009)
Preliminary Findings
• Individuals are more likely to respond to a
warning if it includes the 4 cognitive
determinants of response to threat.
• Failure to include even one element of any
of the cognitive determinants may be
sufficient to result in an inappropriate
response to a specific threat.
Successful preparedness
is about
INFORMATION
ANALYSIS
COMMUNICATION