Transcript Slide 1

Wind Energy, Technology
and Society
Jeremy Firestone
Director, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration
Professor, Marine Policy and Legal Studies
IUCN Academy
July 2014
Outline
• Why Wind
• Societal Issues
2
Short Party …
Very Long Hangover
Caldeira and Wickett, 2003
3
Where is U.S. Fossil-fuel
combustion derived CO2 coming
from?
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
329
222
773
1745
Electric Total
generation MMT
2109 5277
In US, Electricity ~40% of problem!
Transportation ~33%
From U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (EPA 2011), Table 5 and Figure 2-7,
excluding 43 MMT assigned to US Territories (MMT Carbon = million metric tons)
4
Why Wind?
• Domestic Energy
• Zero pollution and zero CO2 in operation
• The only very large renewable, cost-competitive way
to produce electricity without CO2 ... Today
• Lowest cost of electricity in some areas, but at least
initially higher cost offshore, initially
5
7
Global Installed
Wind Capacity
Source: www.gwec.net
8
Source: www.gwec.net
9
What about wind is
controversial?
• Noise effects
• Wildlife effects
• Cultural landscape effects
• Inadequate engagement
– From perspective of
communities
• Effect on competing
uses
• Government support
• Cost
– Offshore only
10
11
Our Survey Work to
Understand Social Dimensions
• Commercial-Scale Offshore Wind (OSW) Projects
–
–
–
–
–
Cape Cod, Massachusetts (MA), 2005
Delaware (DE), 2006
DE and Cape Cod, MA 2009
US National Survey, 2008 and 2010
DE and Maryland (MD), 2014
• Coastal Tourism
– Tourists to DE Beaches 2007
– South Carolina (SC) to Cape Cod, MA (ongoing)
• Demonstration-scale OSW Projects and Community Wind
– Coastal DE and Atlantic City, NJ, 2013
12
Societal Issues
1. Politics and Political
Economy
4.
Cultural Landscapes
5.
2. Procedural Justice
Tradeoffs/Environmenta
l Justice
3. Value of Information
6.
Transformative Energy
Economy
13
1. Politics/Political Economy
Why does the public believe there is no
U.S. offshore wind?
2008 National Survey (Jon Lilley, 2010)
14
2. Procedural Justice
Process Questions
• The wind project developer, [Cape Wind/BWW], has
acted openly and transparently.
• The planning process has been fair.
• Local people have had a say in the planning process.
□ Agree
□ Somewhat agree
□ Neither agree nor
disagree
□ Somewhat disagree
□ Disagree
□ Don’t know
7
Very strong correlation between support
and positive feelings on three metrics
Cape Cod
Supporter
Opponent
Firestone, et al, 2012-2
Developer Transparent
Agree (%)
Disagree(%)
66
3
16
49
9
3. Value of Information
Believed Negative Effects of
Cape Wind Project pre and post EIA
Local fishing industry
Tourism & related business
Job creation
Air quality
Electricity rates
Aesthetics of ocean view
Property values
Marine life
Bird life
Recreational boating/fishing
Reducing climate change
Navigational safety
2005
54%
42%
8%
6%
7%
72%
48%
44%
48%
54%
3%
NA
2009
41%*
36%
5%
5%
13%*
57%*
38%*
34%*
40%*
45%*
3%
42%
* Significant
difference
17
4. Cultural Landscapes
Coastal Community Wind
• 2 MW wind turbine on University’s coastal campus in
historic Lewes, Delaware (settled in 1600s)
– Owned in partnership with Gamesa (manufacturer)
• R&D platform
• Education
• Carbon-free energy to campus (and some to town)
18
2013 Survey of Lewes Residents
• Attitude toward turbine
– 78% of residents positive
– 10% negative
• Look of turbine
– 82% like
20
Evaluation of the “Look”
(ordered by percent in each)
Like Look
Attribute
Progress towards clean
energy
%
Dislike Look
Attribute
67 Does not fit landscape
Unique
36
Community Landmark
Attractive
Work of Art
Other (Miscellaneous)
36
25
14
12
Disruptive to
community feel
Unattractive
Industrial
Too Big
Other (Miscellaneous)
%
70
54
40
38
31
10
Socially-constructed rather than physical attributes
21
Sound
• 10% indicated they could hear turbine from home
– Distance
• 19% lived more than 1.6km
• Another 19% lived at least 1.2km
– Sound Bothersome?
• 23% found the sound bothersome
• 73% found it not bothersome
22
Interplay between auditory and
other aspects
• Being bother by sound is correlated with:
• Belief that having a wind turbine in the community is
not important
• Of those who are bothered by the sound:
– Two-thirds do not like how the wind turbine looks
23
24
Transformative Energy Economy
Considering only those who are
undecided (2009 survey)
Are they more or less likely to support
the local offshore wind project if that
project was the first of 300 projects?
Survey Area
Cape & Islands
Sound
DE Ocean
DE Statewide
More
Less
61%
64%
71%
57%
6%
8%
10%
9%
Similar findings for supporters and opponents 25
[email protected]
www.ocean.udel.edu/windpower
www.carbonfree.udel.edu
373 ISE Lab
26
Process
Cape Cod
Delaware
Agree
(%)
Disagree
(%)
Agree Disagree
(%)
(%)
Developer
Transparent
43
22
32
7
Planning Process Fair
39
21
29
9
Local say in Planning
43
29
34
6
In each area under all three metrics, the
difference between agree and disagree
is significant at 1% level.
Firestone, et al, 2012-2 (based on 2009 survey)
8
Understanding Tradeoffs (DE 2006):
Sample Question
For which option would you vote?
Attribute
Option A
Option B
Wind farm location
Ocean North
Ocean North
Distance from shore
3.6 miles
9 miles
Annual rent/royalty
$8 million to
Beach
Nourishment
Fund
$8 million to
Green
Energy Fund
$5
$30
Renewable energy fee on
your monthly electricity
bill for 3 years
I would vote for…
□ Option A
□ Option B
□ Option C
Option C
No Wind
power
Expansion
of coal
or natural gas
power
Choice Modeling
• Based on the theory that the
utility an individual derives
from a good comes from the
characteristics of that good
rather than the good itself
– Lancaster (1966)
Attribute
Levels
Location
Delaware Bay
Ocean North
Ocean South
Distance (miles)
0.9; 3.6; 6; 9; To far to see
(w/photo simulations)
Royalty fund
Beach nourishment fund
Green energy fund
General fund
Renewable
Payment
(annual)
$1 million
$2 million
$8 million
Monthly renewable
energy fee
(for 3 yrs)
$0; $1; $5; $10; $20; $30
Offshore wind vs.
coal or natural gas
• If same initial price
– 95% prefer offshore wind
• If wind $1-30 per month more for 3 years
– 91% prefer offshore wind
Krueger, et al, 2011 (based on 2006 DE survey)
30
Annual external cost in perpetuity per household
(by distance turbines from coast and HH location)
Krueger, Parsons, Firestone, 2011 (2006 DE data)
$100.00
$80.00
$60.00
Ocean
Bay
Inland
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
0
5
10
15
20
Miles from the Coast
• Wind farms are a disamenity; especially for ocean area residents
• BUT marginal benefits level off quickly, beginning around 6 miles
Krueger, et al, 2011
31
Offshore wind compared to coal or gas
as function of distance from shore:
Coastal Residents Only
Rehoboth Beach Project Simulation
WTP ($/month for 3 years)
80
60
40
y = 29.544Ln(x) - 0.7947
R2 = 1
20
0
-20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-40
-60
Distance from shore (miles)
Prefer wind if distance is greater than 1.03 miles from shore
Krueger 2007