Transcript Slide 1

Beijing, November 2007
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY CAPABILITIES
Up to 2020
- Coal: 50-61 million tons/annum, (32-40 Mt for power generation)
- Crude: 10 – 18 million tons/annum
- Natural Gas: 14-16 BCM/annum
- Hydropower: 58 - 65 TWh/annum
- Uranium Potential: RAR: 113 tons, EAR-I: 16563 tons
- Up to 2030
- Coal: ~ 70 - 80 million tones/annum
- Crude: ~10 – 18 Million tons/annum
- Natural Gas: ~14 – 20 BCM/annum
- Hydropower ~75 -83 TWh/annum
Renewable Energy
2005
Small/mini Hydro
Wind Power
Solar Cells
Biomass
Geothermal
Total
MW
185.00
0.80
1.15
150.00
0
336.95
GWh
555
na
na
na
0
~600
Up to 2020
MW
GWh
1000 - 1200
300 - 400
4-6
4,2005,200
310-410
100
1700-2100
Up to 2030
MW
GWh
3,500
10,000
MAJOR ENERGY-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ITEMS
1990
2005
GDP (USD/cap.)
114
645
Commercial Energy Consumption (KgOE/cap.)
63
250
Electricity Consumption (KWh/cap.)
93
540
Energy Intensity (KgOE/1000USD95)
312
500
Growth Rate of GDP
(%)
7.5
Growth Rate of Energy Consumption (%/year )
11.2
Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption (%/year )
14.2
Energy Elasticity
1.5
Electricity Elasticity
1.9
Final Energy demand
70000
Industry
A griculture
Transport
Commerce
residence
60000
50000
KTOE
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
11454
15875
25579
39496
52946
65996
532
728
941
1085
1189
1348
Transport
6401
10423
17437
26665
40738
52120
Commerce
2009
3112
5261
7687
10136
12804
319
4390
13088
21748
31927
41518
I ndustry
Agriculture
residence
Renewable Energy
120.0%
100.0%
80.0%
Renewable energy
60.0%
Total energy
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Renewable energy 41.6% 30.5% 20.4% 15.8% 11.7% 9.4%
Total energy
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Primary energy balance
2005
Physical unit
2010
KTOE
Physical unit
2015
KTOE
Physical unit
2020
KTOE
Physical
unit
2030
Physical
unit
KTOE
KTOE
Primary energy
demand
43832
63023
110627
171828
317391
Domestic energy
resouce
61145
76238
93780
103994
121792
include:
Coal
32,6Mll. Tons
18271
45,42Mll
tons
25440
55,28Mll
tons
30960
63,36Mll
tons
35482
75Mll tons
42000
Crude oil
17,8Mll. Tons
18120
19,86Mll
tons
20217
20Mll tons
20360
20,7Mll tons
21073
20Mll tons
20360
Gas
6,89Bll m3
6205
9,62Bll m3
7759
14,19Bll m3
12772
15,6Bll m3
14040
20Bll m3
18000
Hydro
17,49TWh
3762
33,76TWh
7259
58,67TWh
12614
60,08TWh
12919
67,8TWh
14586
1,99TWh
428
4,2TWh
904
9,78TWh
2104
28,1TWh
6042
45,8Mll tons
15134
49Mll tons
16170
55,7Mll tons
18378
63Mll tons
20805
Small hydro
Renewable energy
Remain (+) Lack(-)
44,8Mll tons
14788
+17313
+13215
-16847
-67929
-195599
Total installed capacity of PPs as of 2005: 11298 MW
(In which: IPP, BOT:
2439MW-21.6%)

“ 2006:12.221 MW (TPPs): add-on steam turbine of Phu My 2.1
extension, Uong Bi 1 extension, Cao Ngan; HPPs: Se San 3, Se San 3A
#1, Srokphumieng#1)
 Maximal power load
2005:

11/2006:
9255 MW
10187 MW, increased by 932 MW
compared to 2005
 In MP V in period 2006 – 2008, 6400 MW needed but some projects delayed
such as TPPs of Hai Phong, O Mon, Ca Mau (2006), Nhon Trach 1, HPPs of
Tuyen Quang #1 (2007), some medium and small HPPs (2006)…
12000
10000
10000
4000
9255
7408
5655
6000
6552
8000
10187
12000
8283
14000
MW
14000
8000
6000
4000
2000
2000
0
0
2001
2002
2003
Thuû ®iÖn
NhiÖt ®iÖn(Than,dÇu)
2004
2005
2006
Tua bin khÝ,Diesel vµ kh¸c
Pmax
TRANSMISSION NETWORK AS OF 2005
3249 km
5272 km
10290 km
6150 MVA
14890 MVA
21100 MVA
Rate of rural electrification as of end 2005
-97,04% districts,
- 96,6% communes, and
- 90,4% rural households accessed to national power grids
-Electricity supplied to rural areas in 2005 is 8.07 billion
kWh, average growth of 10,1%/year in 2001-2005
Exceeded MP V
Equal to 92% of MP V
Not reached MP V
Đi ện sản xuất (GWh)
60000
thùc
tÕ
Actual
TS§
MP44
50000
MP55
TS§
MP5-Adjust
TS§
5 HC
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
MP 4
MP 5
Adjusted
MP5
2000
29971
26000
26594
27041
2001
34031
29201
30603
31137
2002
38469
32795
35179
36410
2003
43246
36833
40329
41273
2004
48384
41367
46412
47138
2005
53834
46459
53438
53462
Actual
KH
2005
GROWTH RATE OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND
60000
50000
GWh
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
§Generation
iÖn s¶n xuÊt
§Sale
iÖn th- ¬ng phÈm
Growth rate of electricity demand, period 1996 -2000:
14.9%
Growth rate of electricity demand, period 2001 -2005:
15.3%
2006
14.3%
T&D loss is reduced from 21.7% (1995) to 12.0% (2005); 11.4% (2006)
- Period 2006-2010: using engineering forecast method
+ Review of development of steel, cement, chemistry, garment sectors,…
loads of large industrial facilities, concentrated industrial zones.
+ Aggregated from demand forecasts of 60/64 provincial power
development plans (accounting for 96.5% electricity demand of the whole
country)
+ Total electricity demand (in base case) of the provinces is increased by
~17.1%/year
- Periods 2011-2015 and 2016-2025: indirect forecast method,
using multi-regression method and international comparing
method
+ Simple-E program (transferred from JICA)
+ Connected with direct forecast from previous step.
+ Compared to the forecast and average electricity consumption per capita
of countries in the region.
+ Consulted with experts
+ Upgraded with assessment of results of DSM programs on load-shapes
(referred to DSM impact assessment by WB consultants) => reduced
Pmax
Period 2001 - 2005 (%)
12
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total
6.79
6.89
7.08
7.34
7.79
8.4
Agriculture,
forestry and
fishery
4.63
2.98
4.06
3.2
3.35
4.1
Industry and
construction
10.07
10.39
9.44
10.34
10.3
10.7
Services
5.32
6.1
6.54
6.57
7.5
8.4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
N¨ m
Tæng
N«ng, L©m & Ng- nghiÖp
C«ng nghiÖp vµ X©y dùng
DÞch vô
SCENARIOS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN PERIOD 2006-2025
2006 2010
2011 2020
2021 - 2025
HIGH (%)/n
8.5
8.5
8.0
BASE (%)/n
7.5
7.2
7.0
Scenario
Population (millions)
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
77.64
83.2
87.8
93.0
97.9
101.6
Year
Item
2005
GWh
%
Sale
Generation
Peak (MW)
Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum)
45603
Sale
Generation
Peak (MW)
Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum)
Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery
53462
106669
169238
247352
349390
9255
548
28046
1579
40052
2189
55395
2997
45603
18100
1048
Base Case
100
97111
100 164961
100 257260
100 381160
53462
112658
190047
294012
431664
9255
548
19117
1106
High Case
1.26
1272
31495
1774
47607
2629
68440
3703
574
Industry-Construction
Commercial-Service
21302
Household-Managerment
Others
19831
Sale
T&D losses
Plant use
45603
Generation
Peak (MW)
Consumption per cap. (kWh/cap.annum)
2010
2015
2020
2025
GWh
%
GWh
%
GWh
%
GWh
%
Low Case
100
100 146898
100 216433
100 308511
100
91948
1.26
1672
0.97
47.65
6.28
84958
39.21
5.60
62412
88692
2109
0.79
2658
46.71
4.74
48201
43.49
3.80
39656
100
12.0
2.7
101148
100 172354
10.8
3.0
100 267561
9.6
3.6
100 394388
8.5
4.0
53462
117341
198565
305784
446645
9255
19911
32906
49513
70815
548
1152
1853
2734
3831
2162
1734
6354
5665
100
0.67
49.29 135398 50.60 204149 51.76
6.28 17719 6.62 28750 7.29
10828
36.21
7.24
12485
33.15 123089 31.21
9.06
23643 8.84
35741
100
7.5
4.2
GWh
550000
20%
500000
Base Case
450000
low Case
400000
High Case
Base Case Growth
18%
16%
14%
350000
12%
300000
10%
250000
8%
200000
150000
6%
100000
4%
50000
2%
0
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Electricity production per capita in some countries of APEC
(Unit: kWh/capita. annum)
Year
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
Australia
6539
9052
9599
10565
12033
Canada
15249
17195
18884
19662
18397
Chile
1054
1402
1972
2676
3203
China
307
547
836
1074
1881
67
212
476
595
552
4847
6748
7670
8454
8850
Malaysia
730
1264
2205
2974
3797
Mexico
916
1373
1562
1954
2178
7121
8936
9607
10271
10526
Philippines
372
424
491
591
681
Korea
977
-
4095
5558
8257
Indonesia
Japan
New Zealand
Russia
-
-
5816
6048
6649
Singapore
2886
5126
6308
7607
8833
309
795
1366
1580
2033
10062
11258
12713
13447
14215
131
201
338
635
Thailand
United States
Vietnam
-
2.
3.
Initial stage: in 2006 electricity production of the whole country is
60.6 billion kWh, average over 710 kWh/person, the lowest in the
ASEAN countries
Period 2006 – 2010 with favorable conditions for socio-economic
development, starting industrialization, rapid power demand
increase for production development, infrastructure construction,
making base for next period
Period after 2010, the energy conservation and efficiency
program, DSM measures; electricity pricing measure, shifting
structure of electricity use.. Led to significant electricity demand
reduction.
tû kWh
1400
18%
16%
1200
1200
15%
14%
1000
900
10%
9.40%
600
400
12%
680
800
16%
1
1.
5.80%
430
327.8
8%
5.80%
6%
4%
200
2%
0
0%
2003
2005
2010
Tiêu thụ điện, tỷ kWh 1
2015
2020
Tốc độ tăng trưởng
-
Hydropower: Technical-economic potential of 11 main basins in Vietnam is ~75:-83 billions kWh (20500MW), in which potential in the North is 51.6%, in the
Center 31.9% and in the South 16.5%
- Coal: According to the coal sector development strategy for the period 20062015',(MOI, 4/2006): Total coal reserve as of 1/1/2006 is 6.16 billion tons (class
A+B+C is 4.99 billion tons). Exploitable reserve is 50-61 million tons/year (2020);
60.5-64.5 million tons/year (2025);
Possible coal supply to the power sector: according to the report of Industrial Mining
Investment Consulting Company
- 2010: 16.3 – 21.9 mill. tons
- 2015: 27.4 – 29.4 mill. tons
- 2020: 32.7 – 40.4 mill. tons
- 2025:
over 40 mill. tons
-
Existing coal price is 20 USD/ton;
average price increase is
2%/year: coal price at port is 32 :- 35 US/ton (in 2020); 33 -:37US/ton (in 2025)
Fuel gas: According to the PV development strategy: exploitable reserve is 15.6
bill. m3/year (2020); 16.5 bill. m3/year (2025), of which 12-14 bill. m3/year is
available for power sector.
Nam Con Son natural gas price is
 2005: 6.0 bill. m3
~3,2 USD/mill. BTU, associated
 2010: 10.3 bill. m3
gas at Cuu Long field is 2.2
 2015: 15 bill. m3
USD/mill.BTU; price escalation is
 2020: 15.6 bill. m3
2%/year:
 2025: 16.5 bill. m3
 South-East continental shelf: about 8 – 9 bill. m3
 South-West continental shelf: about 6 – 7 bill. m3, in North: 1-2 bill. m3
1. Existing: about 150MW of cogeneration power plants
using biomass (at sugar plants), 0.8 MW of wind power
(on Bach Long Vi island) and solar PV power about 1.15
MW
2. Development potential
-
Small hydropower:
~ 2000MW
Geothermal power: potential ~ 200MW
Biomass power:
300 -:- 400MW
Wind power:
400 -:- 600MW
Solar PV power:
4 -:- 6MW
 Total power from renewable energies: 2700 -:3300MW
 About 1200MW of renewable energy can be
developed in 2015 (equivalent to 3000GWh); 1500 :- 1700MW in 2020 (~5000GWh) and 2400 -:3000MW in 2025 (~6400-7500GWh)
- Ensuring reliable electricity supply in each region and whole country at
reasonable tariffs.
- Priority is given for development of hydropower, especially for the
multi-purpose projects
- Ensuring reasonable shares and supply safety between coal and gas
- Reasonable arrangement of generation resources by load areas,
reducing transmission distance
- Encouraging renewable power resource development
- Promotion of projects for importing electricity from Laos, Cambodia
and China
- Taking into account the risk of power plant development schedule
- Priority given to special projects with commitment of ODA, OCR
financing
- Encouraging projects under schemes of IPP, BOT,…
- Optimization of generation development program based on least
costs
- Considering effectiveness and constraints of North – South
connecting power lines
- Advanced calculation tools: WASP III => PDPAT2 =>
STRATEGIST
- Because of delay of some power plants, Government allows special
mechanism for fast tract project development, power sector applied many
efficient measures for increasing generation resources.
- Fast tract power projects: electricity importing from China in the North;
Gas turbines in the South in 2007 – 2009, increasing reserve in the South
meanwhile short or low reserve in the North in 2007-2009
- To avoid power shortage up to 2010, it needs to control and support projects
under investment or construction so that they are not delayed, especially
those in the North
- It needs mechanism for control of medium and small hydropower
projects (about 350 - 400MW) to be put into operation in the period up to
2010
In 2006 -:- 2010 total of 13700MW is anticipated to be put into operation,
average 2900MW/year, in 2008 -:- 2010 about 3700 -:- 4300MW/year
-
Arrangement of power plants development schedule in period
2011 - 2015 to ensure sufficient electricity supply at rate over
99,7%/year, in which speeding up coal fired and gas fired power
plants in the South
-
Establishment of generation mix options with varied input factors
subjective (based on operation strategy for 500kV lines, prices of
coal, gas...), objective factors (gas supply availability, delay of
electricity import,..)
-
Comparing costs of options by optimization of planning
-
Selecting option with least cost and highest electricity supply
security
Electricity production
Pmax whole country:
Total installed capacity:
In which:
112.6 TWh
19117 MW
25879 MW
Hydropower
~ 9222MW (35.6%);
Oil and gas TPPs:
13241 (31.3%)
190 TWh
31495 MW
42341 MW
13601 (32.1%)
~ 9425MW (36.4%);
Coal TPPs:
~ 5975MW (23.1%);
12130
Imported:
~ 820MW ( 3.2%):
2102
(28.6%)
(
5.0%)
Renewable power
1267 (4.0%)
Maximal system reserve
~ 467MW ( 1.7%)
NL t¸ i t¹ o
N§ than NhËp khÈu
2%
3%
31.4%
23%
Thuû ®iÖn
36%
N§ than
25.8%
29%
NhËp khÈu NL t¸ i t¹ o
Thuû ®iÖn
5%
3%
32%
In 2006 - 2010 average 2860MW per year needs to be constructed
In 2011 – 2015 average 3300MW per year needs to be constructed
KhÝ& dÇu
36%
KhÝ& dÇu
31%
Electricity production
Pmax whole country:
Total installed capacity:
294 TWh
47607 MW
60611 MW
In which:
Hydropower
21295 (24.9%)
432 TWh
68440 MW
85411 MW
~ 17195MW (28.4%);
Oil and gas TPPs:
16901 (19.8%)
~ 16151MW (26.6%);
Coal TPPs:
35750 (41.9%)
~ 18350MW (30.3%);
Renewable power
2267 ( 2.7% )
~
Imported:
~
1717MW ( 2.8%);
5198MW ( 8.6%)
5198 ( 6.1%)
Nuclear power:
4000 (4.7%)
N§ than
30.2%
NhËp khÈu
8.6%
NL t¸ i t¹ o DiÖn h¹ t
nh©n
3%
3.3%
~
2000MW ( 3.3%)
N§ than
41.8%
NhËp khÈu
6.1%
NL t¸ i t¹ o DiÖn h¹ t
nh©n
3%
4.7%
Reserve margin in peak Month
20.0%
In 2016 – 2020 average 3650MW per year needs to be constructed
In 2021 – 2025 average 4950MW per year needs to be constructed
KhÝ& dÇu
26.8%
Thuû ®iÖn
28.3%
14.4%
KhÝ& dÇu
19.9%
Thuû ®iÖn
24.9%
90000
80000
70000
60000
MW
Import
NhË
p khÈu
Nuclear
§
iÖn h¹ t PP
nh©n
Thuû
n nhá+®iÖn NL t¸ I t¹ o
Small ®iÖ
HPPs
NhiÖ
t ®iÖ
n khÝ+dÇu
Gas/Oil
PPs
NhiÖ
®iÖn than
CoaltTPPs
Thuû
®iÖ
n vµ T§ tÝch n¨ ng
HPP&PSPP
Pmax
Peak
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
In 2007-:-2010, 6 HPPs, 8 coal TPPs and 600MW imported from China (220 kV
and 110 kV)
Coal TPPs: Son Dong, Mao Khe, Cam Pha I&II, Hai Phong I&II, Uong Bi Ex,
Ninh Binh Ex. Quang Ninh I, unit 1 of Vung Ang I
HPPs: Tuyen Quang, Ban Ve, Cua Dat, unit #1 of Son La, Na Le
After 2010:
Quang Ninh II coal TPP: 2011; Nghi Son I: 2011; Nghi Son II: 2012-2014
Mong Duong II coal TPP: 2011-2012; Mong Duong I: 2011-2012;
Vung Ang I coal TPP (unit 2): 2011; Vung Ang II: 2013,
6x600MW and 4x1000MW of new coal TPPs: after 2020
Son La HPP 2400MW: 2010-2012, HPPs of Nam Chien, Ban Chat, Khe Bo: 2011
HPPs of Huoi Quang, : 2012-2013
HPP of Lai Chau 1200MW, Hua Na, Trung Son, Nho Que3: : 2013-2015
PSHPP 5x300MW: 2019 -2025
Imported:
Nam Mo HPP (Laos): 2012
Imported through China 500kV, 2017-2019: 1500MW
Nam Theun HPP or Nam U (Lao PDR): 2019
In 2007 – 2010: 15 HPPS, about 200MW of small HPPs will be in
operation, total capacity of ~2500MW
After 2010:
HPP Song Bung 4, Dak My 4 : 2012,
HPP Thuong Kon Tum, Song Bung 2, Vinh Son II: 2014
HPP Song Bung 5, Dak My 1: 2014
Gas TPP 4x750MW: from 2018
Coal TPP 600MW: 3 units in 2016-2020 (high case: 6x600MW:
2013-2020)
Imported from Regional HPPs:
Se Kaman 3: 2010-2011; Se Kaman 1: 2013;
HPPs in South of Lao: 2013-2016: ~ 1000MW
Lower Se San 3 HPP (Cambodia)
=> 2007 – 2010: 6 HPPs (Dai Ninh, Dong Nai 3&4, Dak Tih, Bak Binh,
DamBri); 5 gas TPPs (Ca Mau I&II, Nhon Trach I&II, O Mon I) are
anticipated to be constructed, adding capacity of ~3300MW
after 2010:
CCGTs of O Mon II: 2012
New GTCC: 8 x 750MW: 2014 – 2020
Coal-fired TPPs in the South: 2011-2015: ~ 20 x 600MW;
considered sites of TPPs: Binh Thuan, Khanh Hoa, Tra Vinh, Soc
Trang, Kien Giang…
10x1000MW of new coal TPPs (after 2016)
NPP- 4x1000MW- units 1st: 2020
HPPs of Dong Nai 2, 5 (2012-2013);
PSHPP with 10 - 11 units 300MW: in 2018 – 2025
Imported:
From HPP of Lower Se San 2: after 2015 (Cambodia)
1.
Power 220-500kV transmission network development is aimed
to increase reliability, flexibility, safety, stable electricity supply,
especially for the important economic areas in the South and
the North
•
HCMCT - Dong Nai - Binh Duong - Ba Ria Vung Tau;
•
Hanoi - Hai Duong - Bac Ninh - Hai Phong - Quang Ninh;
•
Economic development axial of Da Nang - Chu Lai Dung Quat and EPZs, IZs.
2.
Development of 220-500kV transmission network for
connection of power plants into the national power grids and
safe, stable operation.
3.
Development of 110kV transmission network, completion of
area power systems in order to increase reliability of electricity
supply, reducing electricity loss, facilitating conditions for
changing medium voltage network to 22kV network and rural
electrification.
 Balancing power supply and demand by area
 Lines: Power lines are constructed with criteria (N-1).
Power networks of HCM city and Hanoi will be connected by the
loop double 500kV lines. The phase disaggregated conductors
4x330 (410)mm2 will be used
 500kV sunbstations:
- Ho Chi Minh city, Hanoi: 2x600MVA, 2x900MVA, 2x1200MVA.
- Othere areas: 2x450MVA, 2x600MVA, 2x900MVA.
- Expansion of existing 500kV substations
The whole country power system consists of 3 regional power systems:
- Northern power system: including northern provinces from Ha Tinh to the
North
- Central power system: including central provinces from Quang Binh to Khanh
Hoa and four provinces in Highlands: Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dac Lac, Dac Nong
- Southern power system: including southern provinces and provinces of Binh
Thuan, Ninh Thuan, Lam Dong.
CHINA
Lai Chau
Viet Tri
Son La
Thac Ba
Soc Son
PhLaiUong Bi
Chem
Quang Ninh
Ha Dong Mai aDong
HOA BINH
Hai Phong
Thuong
Tin
Din
NhohQuan
Ninh Binh
Thanh Hoa
LAOS
NORTHERN
REGION
Vinh
Ha Tinh
THAILAN
GHI CHU
D
500kV: 500kV line (- 2020)
500kV: 500kV line (- 2010)
500kV: Existing 500kV line
220kV: Existing 220kV line
500kV substation(- 2020)
500kV substation(- 2010)
Existing 500kV substation
Existing 220kV substation
Existing HPP
Existing TPP
Dong Hoi
CENTRAL
REGION
Quang Tri
Da Nang
Doc Soi
Ban Sok
Yaly
Vinh Son
Plei Ku
Quy Nhon
Sam Bor
CAMBODIA
Krong Buk
SongHinh
Nha Trang
D.Nai3&4Di Linh
Da Nhim
Tan Dinh
Thac Mo
Tri An
Bao Loc
Dien Nguyen tu
Song May
Nhon Trach
Phu My
Nha Be
Hoc Mon
Phu Lam
O
Cai Lay
Mon
Rach
Gia TrNoc
a
B Ria
a
SOUTHERN
REGION
Item
Unit
500kV substations
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Sub./MVA
10/6150
20/11850
25/21900
41/39150
49/54900
km
3249
4823
6661
9210
12170
MVA
615
624
876
955
1120
500kV lines
Capacity / substation
Item
Volume
Unit
Volume
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Sub./MVA
60/15068
120/32318
165/57191
233/90066
271/126127
220kV lines
km
5272
11484
15138
17442
19033
Capacity/
substation
MVA
260
273
347
387
465
220kV substations
Item
Unit
Volume
2005
2010
2015
110kV substations
subs./MVA
530/21097
854/41270
1076/65700
110kV power lines
km
10290
19188
22949

Period 2006-2010: 100% of commune centers & 95% of rural households are accessed to local
power grid, in which 90% of rural households in the North and Highland

Period 2011-2015: 98% of rural households are accessed to local or national power grids
Region
2006-2010
2011-2015
2006-2015
1
North
5,210
4,898
10,107
2
Center
1,297
524
1,822
3
South
3,742
1,761
5,502
10,249
7,183
17,431
Total
 Supply from national power grid: VND 17,431 billions
 Local investment in development of off-grid renewable power: VND 4.7 billions
 Mobilizing all resources for development of infrastructure, priority investment
capital and finance is given to rural electricity developers, encouraging investment in
renewable energy (wind, small hydro, solar, biomass power,...)
 State public support mechanism: for remote and mountainous areas, support from
the state will be 85% of investment cost, EVN will arrange the remainder of 15%
 Managing rural electricity business in compliance with the enterprise law,
cooperative law and ensuring covering cost and reasonable benefits for maintaining
business.
2005
- Hongha–Laocai, Vanson-Hagiang - 110kV
- DongHung-MongCai - 110kV
- Van Son-Lao Cai: 220kV (2007)
- Van Nam-Hiep Hoa: 500kV (2015 - 2020)
-Sekaman 3 HPP (250MW): 2010 2011
-HPPs of Se Kaman 1, Se Kong 4 &5,
Nam Kong
-500kV line of Pleiku – Ban Sok:
180km
- Total~1,700 - 2300MW
- Chau Doc–Phnom Penh: 230kV,
2008
- HPPs of Ha Se San 1, 2 and
3
Policy and mechanism for development and management integrating economy-energy-environment
 ensuring consistency between power development plan with local socioeconomic development
plan and land use plan, reasonable land allocated for power project development.
 Training environment protectors in power sectors; development of environmental pollution
monitoring and controlling system for periodical inspection.
 Thermal power plants:
 Using advanced, high efficient technologiess; increasing unit size
 Installation of precipitation equipment, de-SOx, application circulating Fluidized boiler
technology (CFB)=> reducing NOx;
 Using ashes as construction materials,
 Application of improvement of combustion chamber; application of coal gasification
technology
 Plan for stoping operation of old power plants
 Hydropower and renewable energy:
 Resolving social issues of resettlement, calculation of resettlement costs, reseasonable
options for ensuring living standards and jobs for resettled people in new residence areas.
 Coordinating in regulation of water reservoirs in cascade HPPs.
 Application of PSHPP technology for increasing efficiency of water resource, effective
operation of HPPs and TPPs combination in order to flatten the load shapes.
 Encouraging development of renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass power,…)

Power network:
 using multi-circuit towers: many voltage levels on one power line; using compact towers in
urban areas in order to reduce safety corridor and occupiedland; using thermal-resistant
conductors; compact substations, GIS substations in urban areas
 conducting measures for increasing safety, health protection, environmental quality, avoiding
effects of electromagnetic fields on human and environment.
Total investment cost including IDC for the whole period: VND1,262,980 billions
(included power telecommunication part)
- Total investment for power generation: VND 821,790 billion (USD 52 bill.);
In which: + investment of power plants:
TPPs: VND 591,673 bill.
HPPS: VND 230,117 bill.
+ IDC: VND 70,787 bill.
(of which for 2006-2010: VND 206,320 bill., 2011-2015: VND 214.892 bill.)
- Total investment for power : VND 441.189 bill.
(of which for 2006-2010: VND 96.752 bill., 2011-2015: VND 158.058 bill.)
+ Transmission network (220 kV and above): VND 167,475 bill.
+ Distribution and LV network:
VND 273,714 bill.
+ IDC:
VND 41.187 bill.
Financing resources
 Own finance of EVN: depreciation fund, development and investment fund, shares,
equitization and selling of shares of some power plants.
 State budget: mainly for compensation for resettlement regarding to son La HPP
 ODA loans according to signed agreements,
 Foreign commercial loans,
 Preferential credits,
 Domestic commercial loans,
 Bonds
2006-:-2015: EVN has committed on
loans of VND 143,415 billion in total
VND 643,542 billions
Annual average net investment cost for the whole power sector
 Period 2006-2010: VND 60,600 bill./year, equivalent to 3.83 bill. USD/year
 Period 2011-2015: VND 66,600 bill./year, equivalent to 4.21 bill. USD/year
 Period 2016-2020: VND 66,300 bill./year, equivalent to 4.20 bill. USD/year
 Period 2021-2025: VND 59,000 bill./year, equivalent to 373 bill. USD/year
 Average for period 2006-2025: VND 63,100 bill./year, equivalent to 3.99 billi. USD/year
Structure of investment capital of the power sector
No.
1
2
20062010
2011-2015
20162020
2021-2025
20062025
Power plants
- TPPs
- HPPs
68.1%
33.6%
34.5%
64.5%
49.5%
15.0%
64.3%
51.5%
12.7%
63.5%
52.2%
11.3%
65%
46.8%
18.2%
Power network
Power transmission
network
- 500kV power lines
- 500kV substations
- 220kV power lines
- 220kV substations
Distribution and LV
Total
31.9%
35.5%
35.7%
36.5%
35%
13.9%
4.3%
1.6%
4.0%
4.0%
18.0%
100%
12.9%
3.9%
1.8%
2.4%
4.8%
22.5%
100%
14.1%
4.6%
2.7%
1.3%
5.5%
21.6%
100%
12.0%
3.5%
2.3%
0.9%
5.2%
24.5%
100%
13.3%
4.1%
2.1%
2.2%
4.9%
21.7%
100%
Item
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
IN PERIOD 2006-2025
 Assessment of annual financial status for the whole power sector and its
components
 Assessment of financial balance feasibility
 Analysis of investment capital mobilization options
Alternatives on electricity
prices


Unit:$Cent/kWh
(excluded VAT)
Electricity price 1: according to the approved roadmap
Electricity price 2: according to the calculated long run
marginal costs
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015
Electricity price 1
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.36
6.36
Electricity price 2
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.0
6.36
7.5
To 2015
Long run marginal cost-LRMC
1. At busbar of power plant
2. At busbar of 220 kV substation
3. At busbar of 110 kV substation.
4. At medium voltages
5. At low voltages
Average
Average
cost
$ c/kWh
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.8
8.3
7.5
Average
cost
$/KW.year
260
310
337
398
482
438
To 2025
Average
cost
$ c/kWh
4.8
5.5
5.9
6.8
8.3
7.4
Average cost
$/KW.year
275
325
349
403
490
442
Analysis alternatives
Financial alternative
 Alternative 1: EVN is the main owner of power
generation projects from now to 2025, except
IPP, BOT projects with PPAs already signed or
to be signed or joint stock and equatized
projects according to plan.
 Alternative 2: EVN plays the role of buyer in
accordance to the power sector reform,
assumed over the planed period, in which EVN
will invest in and manage some important
power plants with loans, the remained power
plants will belonged to independent power
generating companies outside EVN.
Electricity
price 1
Electricity
price 2
ALT. I-I
ALT. I-II
ALT.II-II
Financial structure of Power Sector
in Alternative II
PARENT COMPANY – ELECTRICITY OG VIETNAM
EVN (WHOLE-SALE BUYER)
MULTIPURPOSE PPs, EVN IS OWNER
DISTRIBUTION
TRANSMISSION
ONE-MEMBER
COM. LMD.
POWER GENERATION
POWER GENERATION
JSCs
(equitized)
Parent com. >
50% of capital
EQUITIZED POWER
GENERATING COM. #
REGIONAL
ELECTRICITY
ONE-MEMBER
COM. LMD.
IPP
BOT
ONE-MEMBER
COM. LMD.
Parent company
accounts for 100% capital
EQUITIZED POWER
COMPANIES
Parent com. < 50%
capital
ROADMAP FOR ELECTRICITY MARKET
DEVELOPMENT
Phase 3: Retail competition
market
Phase 2: Wholesale market
Phase 1: Single Buyer
market
2024
Retail competition
market
2022
Experimental Period
2016
Experimental Period
Single Buyer
Market
Internal Market
2014
Wholesale Market
2009
2005
1.
The power demand forecast was made for the period 2006 – 2010 considered
conditions and policies to attract investment capital from domestic and foreign
resources. The demand forecast may not take into account all factors of rapid
developing economy and integration. The power demand forecast were for base case,
and high case, which shall be upgraded, reviews annually and report to the
Government for adjusting plan.
2.
In order to reduce risk of short term electricity shortage and long term investment,
measures for encouraging electricity saving, DSM programs need to be applied.
Schedules of power plants in the period 2006 – 2010 in the base case were calculated
with reserve when power demand increases higher than normal and if some power
plants are delayed; The power generation program is more difficult when power
system is large, therefore, it requires close control of preparation and implementation
process in order to avoid delay as approved in the Plan.
MP VI strictly followed the contents of “Strategy of power development” which was
approved and the draft “National energy Strategy” which is being submitted to the
Government for approval. Regarding arrangement of power plants in 3 regions, it
need to make planning of sites for new power centers of ~6000MW coal TPPs in the
North; ~2400MW of coal TPPs in the Central; ~5000MW of coal TPPs in the South and
over 2000MW gas TPPs in the South.
3.
4.
5.
In order to reach rate of 3-4% electricity from renewable power plants, it needs to have
mechanisms on price subsidy, procedures and encouraging development of small
hydropower projects, wind power projects, biomass and geothermal power projects,..
However, it needs to monitor investment process in order to avoid the low efficient
projects.
6.
7.
8.
9.
With relatively big volume of lines and substations to be constructed,
apart from application of new technology (such as many circuit on
one line, many voltage levels, compact tower, GIS substation,..) it
needs the local support in consensus of line routes and arrangement
of land for substations in order to avoid overlapped planning and
reduce socio-environmental impacts.
Promoting cooperation on preparation of construction investment
hydropower projects in Laos and Cambodia and interconnection with
Chinese 220-500kV power system.
Power network investment program is about 4 billion USD/year, will
meet many difficulties. It is recommended that the Government to
give priority for using
OCR, ODA resources,.. Encouraging
diversification of power generation project owners, mobilizing
finance from such resources as bond, equitization, foreign BOT
power projects at reasonable rate.
In order to ensure financial balance for the whole power sector,
encouraging investors in development of electricity market,
electricity conservation and efficiency, it is recommended that the
Government permit to increase electricity tariffs according to the
roadmap to 7 US cent/kWh in 2010 and 7.5 US cent/kWh in 2015