Transcript Document
Haberdashers Hall, London 21st May 2014
Please be aware that these training notes contain general information relating to issues affecting LPA Receivership law and practice only and do not constitute legal advice. For any specific issues you are recommended to consult a solicitor or other appropriate professional adviser .
Please be aware that these training notes contain general information relating to issues affecting LPA Receivership law and practice only and do not constitute legal advice. For any specific issues you are recommended to consult a solicitor or other appropriate professional adviser .
Paul Batho NARA Chief Executive
Recovery and Evolution
Recovery Impact on NARA and the work of receivers Bad news?
Evolution …of the role of property receivers …of NARA
The Recovery
Since May 2013 Recovery of the market Confidence returns Investors, lenders, occupiers active A genuine recovery?
Economic basis, interest rates A new market or the next boom/bust?
The Recovery – implications for recovery specialists
Receivership appointments – slowing demand reported A recovery-based mini-boom?
Impact of rising interest rates?
A new market New lending New approaches Timing?
NARA – 2013/4 developments
Growing RPR membership (23 in 2014) New Council structure Improved web site Financial position Exams, regulation and the JRC Membership numbers
NARA – Evolution
The number of appointments will decline but……..
NARA – Evolution
Policies for 2014/5 Promote and supporting receivers To lenders To opportunity funds To government and other institutions Work with Association of Property Lenders A receiver’s skills – relevance to the new lending market Continuing relevance of RPR members Encouraging Associate and Affiliate membership
NARA - Future
NARA Membership expertise in property and finance Focussed Council structure Well funded The skills and ingredients to serve a changing market
Peter Bill
Evening Standard Columnist www.planet-property.net
Please be aware that these training notes contain general information relating to issues affecting LPA Receivership law and practice only and do not constitute legal advice. For any specific issues you are recommended to consult a solicitor or other appropriate professional adviser .
“ A cracking good read”
- David Sleath, Segro chief executive
“Sycophantically arse-licking”
- Mr. Waterstone, anonymous bastard
WWW.PLANET-PROPERTY.NET
LESSONS FROM BOOK-LEARNING
• Beware of linked equity & debt deals • Beware of tall dark strangers • Beware of bright young things
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
• • Starting from June 2007 Capital growth stands at two-thirds of peak values Rental values are stuck at 91% of June 2007 figures • • Starting from June 2009 Capital growth is up 20% Rents remain four percent below pit levels
BANG
Dear God, just let there be one more property boom. I promise I won’t piss it all away this time
Harvey Soning, property veteran
BOOM
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria
Sir John Templeton
MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money
Everett Dirksen
HOW MUCH MONEY COSTS
FINANCE COST FOR PURCHASING PRIME OFFICE PROPERTY
THE FIRST SIGN OF THE JITTERS
LOAN TO VALUE RATIOS FOR PRIME OFFICE PROPERTY
PLANET PROPERTY
Inside every working anarchy, there’s an old boy network
Mitchell Kapor
DEVELOPERS’S WORLD
People who enjoy meetings should not be in charge of anything
Thomas Sowell
WHEN DEBT MATCHED NET ASSETS
Land Securities, British Land and Hammerson Combined assets and debt
BIG THINKERS
You have to think anyway, so why not think big?
Donald Trump
AGENTS
The propensity to truck, barter and exchange one thing for another is common to all men, and to be found in no other race of animals
- Adam Smith
AUCTIONS
Large groups of people are smarter than a few experts
James Surowiecki, author of “The Wisdom of Crowds”
AFTERMATH
Experience is the one thing you can’t get for nothing
- Oscar Wilde
HERE WE GO AGAIN?
“The reality is that a new generation comes along very quickly with lots of ideas. Then we get back into the same cycle once again.
”
Ian Coull, former chief executive, Segro
BUT WHEN, HOW, WHERE...
John Muldoon, MRICS Hatfield Philips International Please be aware that these training notes contain general information relating to issues affecting LPA Receivership law and practice only and do not constitute legal advice. For any specific issues you are recommended to consult a solicitor or other appropriate professional adviser .
Recovery and Evolution
Loan servicing and CMBS
The Role of the Special Servicer
Evolving Real Estate Debt Market
The “Light Touch” Approach to RE Workouts
Non-Performing Loans Sales – A New Client Base?
Hatfield Philips – Loan Servicing & CMBS
→
Hatfield Philips International (“HPI”) is Europe’s longest serving commercial real estate loan Servicer, having managed over €61 billion of assets since its inception
→
With a staff of over 120 based in London and Frankfurt, HPI has active workout exposure in 16 European jurisdictions and has worked out over €5 billion of distressed debt
•
HPI Active Servicing Portfolio
Belgium Denmark Finland Republic France Austria Germany →
HPI is owned by Starwood Property Trust, which is the largest mortgage REIT in the U.S. with a market capitalization of $4.8 billion (NYSE: STWD)
UK →
Active servicing portfolio consists of 3,000 properties (286 loans) totalling AUM of €19 billion
→
HPI is the largest Special Servicer in Europe
The Netherlands Switzerland Sweden Spain Norway Poland Italy Luxembourg Special Servicer
Hatfield Philips
Capita Morgan Stanley Mount Street Solutus CBRE LS Hudson Situs Active Special Servicing - European CMBS Market (1 ) Market % by Loan Balance * Market % by Loan
Hatfield Philips 83
Capita Morgan Stanley Mount Street Solutus 40 12 7 10 CBRE LS Hudson Situs 3 8 5 Market % by Balance
36%
18% 6% 1% 3% 26% 5% 3% 2%
(1) Moody’s EMEA Servicing Report January 2014 /
*Securitised loan balance is in
€ MM as per transfer date Data as of 31 December 2013
The Role of the Special Servicer Evaluating the options to maximise returns Option 1 LOAN CORRECTION Option 2 LOAN MODIFICATION Modify Loan New Sponsor Market Property w/Financing Option 3 LOAN SALE DPO Option 3a Borrower Led Sale Option 4 ENFORCE Share Pledge Fixed and Floating Charges Primary Servicer Sale of Stabilised Property Asset Management Quick Sales Apply Funds through Waterfall Take Control
Evolving Real Estate Debt Market
The peak years for European CMBS issuance were 2006 & 2007 which saw €60bn and €45bn originated respectively. Post the collapse of Lehman's in 2008 origination virtually ceased. (Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert – May 2011)
Estimates for 2014 CMBS Issuance vary but point towards a range between €7bn -15bn of new originations in 2014 (Source: James Wallace, Costar, 12th December 2013)
New sources of finance have emerged to fill the void left by the reduced CMBS issuance and the continuing absence of many bank/balance sheet lenders:
→
Private Equity
→
Debt Funds
→
Listed Debt Vehicles
→
Insurance Companies
→
Mezzanine Lenders
→
Corporate Bonds
Despite the slow recovery of the CMBS Market and many banks still focusing on deleveraging their books, liquidity is returning and there is increasing Real Estate debt available.
To illustrate this, HPI have boarded 177 loans totalling €4.1 billion for six new clients within the last 18 months
The “Light Touch” Approach to RE Workouts
Collegiate approach verses One Stop Shop instruction
A continual and active line of communication between Special Servicer and Fixed Charge Receiver/Administrator
Multi-disciplinary teams from different practices and service providers
Asset Management placed at the centre of workout process
Robust Business Plans – regularly reviewed
Hold, Asset Manage then sell verses sell now - Capex requirements/Capex availability?
Market driven exit strategies
Non-Performing Loans Sales – A New Client Base?
Since 2011, HPI have underwritten NPL Projects with a UPB of circa €34.1bn
Cushman & Wakefield research suggests that European loan sales will exceed the €40bn mark in 2014 – a 32% increase on the 2013 level.
(source: C & W, 05.02.2014)
Active PE buyers include Apollo, Blackstone, Cerberus, Colony Capital, Deutsche Bank, Kennedy Wilson, Lone Star, Marathon and Oaktree....and there are new entrants still looking to join upcoming bid processes.
PE buyers typically adopt a hands on approach and understand the loan and real estate metrics.
Cost of capital and NPV analysis drive their workout strategies – speed of execution is key.
PE NPL buyers have more flexibility than the vendor banks - Strategies range from DPO’s, Enforcement to Loan to Own
In Summary
The markets for debt and workout services are evolving as the economic recovery gains pace:
→
Liquidity has returned to real estate markets from new sources
→
There are potentially new clients for workout specialists
→
A dynamic client base will require advisors to adopt greater degrees of flexibility
David Marks
Co-Managing Partner, Brockton Capital LLP and President, British Property Federation Please be aware that these training notes contain general information relating to issues affecting LPA Receivership law and practice only and do not constitute legal advice. For any specific issues you are recommended to consult a solicitor or other appropriate professional adviser .
CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY AND TRADE SECRET TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Market Conditions: 2005 – 2008 2. Market Conditions: 2009 – 2014 3. What happens when the ‘sardine cans’ are opened up? (Sam Zell’s dictum) 4. UK Outstanding Property Debt, 2014
40
• 1.
Market Conditions: 2005 – 2008 The leverage in the system was akin to cocaine; Lehman bought it to an abrupt end .
CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY AND TRADE SECRET
41
CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY AND TRADE SECRET • 2. Market Conditions: 2009 – 2014 QE, six years of ZIRP, Help to Buy, is akin to heroin. But policy makers don’t want an abrupt end, more a gradual come down via tapering, signaling and gradual rate rises .
42
3. What happens when the ‘sardine cans’ are opened up? (Sam Zell’s dictum) CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY AND TRADE SECRET • After 12 months of ‘inadvertent ownership’, nothing much changes.
After 7 - 8 years, leases are expiring, M + E is shot, obsolescence has kicked in and the capex has been deferred. And deferred again. And the sardines begin to stink.
43
CONFIDENTIAL, PROPRIETARY AND TRADE SECRET 4. UK OUTSTANDING PROPERTY DEBT, 2014 The banks: perhaps halfway through their bad books?
DTZ estimate there is around £541 billion of UK commercial real estate in total invested stock, resulting in around 60% LTV leverage overall. (“Overall” is key. Some investors are all equity. Some are 100%+ LTV.) Total (2013) UK Property Debt (1) The UK CRE debt market is (still) highly concentrated.
The four elephants in the room (still) comprise (1) :
The size of each circle represents its portion of the total UK CRE loans outstanding (2013)
LENDER ESTIMATED 2013 UK LOAN BOOK % OF OVERALL UK MARKET RBS (2) LBG (3)
C.£30BN C.£27BN 9% 8%
CORPORATE PROPERTY AND COVERED BONDS
C.£39BN
NAMA (4)
C.£7BN 2%
CMBS
(GENERALLY) (5) C.£35BN 11%
TOTAL
C.£99BN 30% The legacy problems are being resolved —the equivalent figure was c.£172 billion last year, a reduction of c.42% through a combination of repayment, amortisation, loan sales, asset sales, and write-downs. But what is left and what is the clearing price for these remaining assets that have not yet been worked out?
TOTAL UK PROPERTY DEBT 2013
C.£325BN (1)
NAMA
C.£7B N
TOTAL UK CMBS OUTSTANDING
C.£35BN
RBS LOAN BOOK
C.£30BN
LBG LOAN BOOK
C.£27BN (1) Source : Brockton Capital estimates using multiple sources inc. DTZ ‘Money Into Property’, De Montfort University research, Savills Debt Market Research, and company annual reports (2) RBS Annual Results, 2013 (3) The UK Loan Book for LBG is for financial year ending 2013 (4) NAMA Annual Report 2012 (5) De-Montfort University Commercial Property Lending Market Report: Mid-Year 2013
44
Daniel Van Gelder
Co-founder Exemplar Chairman, the Westminster Property Association
A few key messages
not enough construction activity to satisfy demand offices still under attack from residential occupier demand increases construction costs going up market risk abounds, but likely to sustain
West End Take Up 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 Secondhand New Completed 10-year average: 1.0m sq ft Pre-let Source: CBRE
2004
4.4
2005
4.4
2006
4.7
2007
4.9
2008
3.6
2009
3.1
Annual Take-up (million sq ft)
2010
4.7
2011
4.3
2012
3.5
2013
4.0
West End speculative developments, >50,000 sq ft ‘000 sf 350 300 2014: 0.4m sq ft 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015: 0.7m sq ft 2016: 1.9m sq ft 2017: 1.0m sq ft 2018: 1.1m sq ft Totals reflect schemes in chart Source: CBRE
Offices to Residential
Occupiers arriving in Central London
Commuters coming in to Central London
Pressures on Construction Costs
Construction Cost Inflation
thinking about risks:
political risks – mayoral & general elections 2015 economic risks – interest rates etc global risks – London compared to other locations building specific risks – obsolesence
A few key messages
not enough construction activity to satisfy demand offices still under attack from residential occupier demand increases construction costs going up market risk abounds, but likely to sustain
Daniel Van Gelder
Co-founder Exemplar Chairman, the Westminster Property Association