Transcript Purpose of TDR Market Analysis

Purpose of TDR Market Analysis
 To determine whether and where there is
demand for development
 over and above what’s permitted by baseline
zoning
 How that demand can be harnessed to
conserve land
 While providing an economic incentive for
desired development
Potential Receiving Areas
Analyzed
 Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area
 City of Burlington
 Rural Upzones
Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area
 Bonus units of residential density in BR-R
(from 4 to 6du/a)
 Rezones from BR-Urban Reserve to BRResidential
 Industrial Development
City of Burlington
 Additional residential development in
Commercial/Mixed Use zones
 Opportunities for additional Commercial
intensity
Rural Upzones
 CPAs/Rezones resulting in additional
residential development potential
 For example: from Rural Reserve (1 du/10
acres) to Rural Intermediate (1 du/2.5 acres,
or 4 du/10 acres)
Preliminary conclusions
 In short-term (1-5 years), development not
likely to generate significant number of TDR
transactions.
 Demand down due to Great Recession
 Significant residential zoning exists in
Burlington and Bayview Ridge UGA
Nearest opportunities
 The nearest-term TDR market opportunities
may be for additional units of residential
density in:
 The Bayview Ridge Residential (BR-R) zone, and
 Certain Mixed Use (Commercial/Residential)
zones in Burlington.
Medium to long-term
 In the medium to long-term (5 – 20 years),
consistent with the County’s and Burlington’s
GMA planning horizons, more market
potential will appear.
Medium to long-term
 As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and
Burlington Mixed Use Zones is used up,
 And demand emerges to rezone additional
land to or intensity those zones
 Skagit County and Burlington could require
TDR purchase for future rezones or
intensification
Rural upzones
 Few Rural Upzone proposals are
considered/approved by County each year
 But, there may be significant TDR purchasing
power associated with upzones which create
high-value rural lots.
 This is another potential opportunity for a
TDR purchase requirement.
Bayview Ridge Industrial
 Given the information currently available,
there does not appear to be a ready
opportunity to link TDR to Industrial
development at Bayview Ridge
Burlington Commercial
 May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city
is willing to consider a Floor to Area Ratio
(FAR) limit on commercial intensity
 Base FAR limit could be exceeded with a TDR
purchase
Final phase of market analysis
 Will draw on preliminary findings
 Focus analysis on those areas and issues most
useful in determining TDR feasibility and
implementation in Skagit County
More precise data on:
 Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving
areas
 Estimated value of residential development
rights in various potential sending site zones,
and
 Recommended exchange ratios to make TDR
transactions viable in the marketplace.
Transactions mechanisms
 Recommendations on what type of
“transaction mechanisms” most viable in
Skagit County given market conditions and
desire to complement Farmland Legacy
Program:
 Simple buyer-seller
 TDR bank
 Density credit fees
Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge
 Final phase of market analysis will provide
essential market data for implementing
bonus density provisions in BVR subarea plan
and PUD ordinance