Transcript ACCELERATED RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT …

California Energy Commission
RENEWABLE ENERGY
From 200,000 Feet To …
Ground Level
Timothy N. Tutt, Technical Director
Renewable Energy Program
California Energy Commission
2004 Bren School Corporate Partners Summit
May 14, 2004
California Energy Commission
2
California Energy Commission
Renewable Generators in CA
 The Energy
Commission has
provided incentives and
buydowns to thousands
of renewable energy
generators in California
3
California Energy Commission
Three Major Global Energy Challenges
 1) Economic Danger of Dependence on Oil
 2) Risk to Global Economy From Climate
Change
 3) Third world versus First World Access to
Fruits of Energy Services
• Future of Energy Policy, Foreign Affairs, v.82,n.4
4
California Energy Commission
The World is Warming
Black line- 50 year average
Grey region – 95% confidence range for annual data
“The rate and duration
of warming of the 20th
century has been much
greater than in any of
the previous nine
centuries.
“Similarly it is likely
that the 1990s have
been the warmest
decade and 1998 the
warmest year of the
millennium.”
Source: Summary for Policy Makers, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, p. 3
5
Our Principal Reservoir - The
Sierra Snow Pack - Is Shrinking
Percent of Water Year Runoff
California Energy Commission
70%
70%
65%
65%
60%
60%
55%
55%
50%
50%
45%
45%
40%
40%
35%
35%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
Warmer Winters Have:

Reduced snow pack


Earlier snow melt
Decreased Spring
runoff by 10%
Major effects on water
supply, Cal Fed and
Delta

10%
10%
1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Water Year (October 1 - September 30)
Sacramento River Runoff (1906-2001)
April to July as a Percent of Total Runoff
Source: California Protection Agency, Environmental Protection Indicators for
California, 2001
6
California Energy Commission
Extreme Weather Events Are Increasing
Causing Billions
of Dollars
in Damages
7
California Energy Commission
Renewable GWh By Type
18000
Standard Offer Era
Uncertainty Era
REP
Era
16000
14000
GEOTHERMAL
10000
8000
BIOMASS
6000
4000
WIND
2000
SOLAR
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
0
19
83
GWH
12000
YEAR
8
California’s Renewable Portfolio Standard
California Energy Commission
Legislative Requirements of the RPS
Senate Bill 1078 (SB 1078) requires that the following
goals are achieved:
– Retail electricity sellers must increase the
renewable content of their energy deliveries by at
least 1 percent of retail sales per year over 2001
baseline
– Annual incremental increase must continue until
renewables comprise 20 percent of each retail
seller’s energy portfolio by December 31, 2017.
9
Californiaand
Energy
Commission
Renewables
California’s
RPS
Renewable Sales (GWh)
80,000
2003 - 2017
2003 - 2017
1983 - 2002
1983 - 2002
70,000
60,000
GWh
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Year
Renewable GWh (no small hydro)
Small Hydro GWh
Rest of State Sales
DA Sales
IOU Sales
10
10
California Energy Commission
Accelerated RPS Goals
 Gov. Schwarzenegger called for accelerating
the RPS phase-in to 2010, rather than 2017.
 2003 Energy Action Plan accelerated RPS goal
to year 2010.
– California Energy Commission
– California Public Utilities Commission
– California Power Authority
 2003 Integrated Energy Policy Report
– Underscored Energy Commission’s support for
accelerated goal
– Recommended more ambitious, longer-term goal for
post 2010
11
California Energy Commission
Way too much to show on a graph
MW
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
SO
R
A
L
California
Renewables:
Installed VS Potential
W
IN
G
D
M
R
E
H
T
O
E
AL
O
I
B
S
A
G
O
I
B
S
S
A
M
12
California Energy Commission
Systems Installed through the
Emerging Renewables Program
Year
Number
kW
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004*
41
197
235
1,292
2,331
3,022
1,758
181
1,060
802
4,294
8,499
12,914
7,326
Paid
(millions)
$0.5
$2.9
$2.2
$16.9
$36.4
$52.1
$28.1
Grand Total
8,889
35,147
$139.4
* Updated April 30, 2004
13
California Energy Commission
Grid-Connected PV Capacity Installed in California
Cumulative
70,000
60,000
50,000
kW
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
14
California Energy Commission
Governor’s
State of the State Speech
“I’m going to encourage builders to build
homes using partial solar power … I
intend to show the world that economic
growth and the environment can coexist.”
15
California Energy Commission
For More Information
Please visit:
www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/
For questions/comments
Contact: Tim Tutt
[email protected]
(916) 654-4590
16