Transcript Operational Overpayment Rate - OWS Training Center

Understanding the BAM
Operational Rate
1
Overview
Sampling
 Formula
 Weighting
 Excluded Overpayments
 Time Period

2
Sampling
BAM data gathered weekly
 Sampling program
 Sample size
 Results are estimates

3
The Formula
H
mh
Nh
( (
)  vih ) /
h=1 mh i=1
H
mh
Nh
( ( ) xih )
h=1 mh i=1
Nh
=
Total number of UI payments in the
population for batch h.
vih
=
Dollars overpaid for the ith case in batch h.
xih
=
Original amount paid/offset for the ith case
in batch h.
mh
=
Number of completed sample cases for batch
h.
H
=
Number of batches in the range.
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The Formula…Simplified
Total Amount Overpaid
÷
Total Amount Paid
=
Rate Overpaid
5
Extra Factors
Weighted
 Computed Weekly
 Summed Yearly

6
Weighting


Based on sample cases
How much weight does each case carry?
Avg score for men = 5
Avg score for women = 10
Is the average score 7.5?
What if there are 100 men in the population and only 50
women?
5*100 + 10*50 / 150 = 6.666

Number of cases each week compared to
the number of payments in the universe
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Exclusions
Non-Recoverable Overpayments
 Technically Proper Overpayments
 Base Period Wage Errors
 Work Search
 ES Registration
 Other Causes
 Why?

• Recoverable
• Reasonably detectable
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Time Period
Based on a sample
 Need 12 months to get full picture
 BAM is current
 BAM is a sample, therefore an
estimate
 Operational Rate

• Overpayment rate * Dollars paid in the
population
• estimated amount of overpayments in
the population
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BPC

Ties to BPC
• (Overpayment/Fraud Unit)

BPC takes time
• 6 months to discover (wage detail),
investigate and write
10
Goals and Standards




GPRA target is to establish 52.8% of the
overpayments that BAM estimates is out there
(FY 2010)
Lower limit 50%
• CAP needed if below 50%
Upper Limit 95%
• BAM program accuracy suspect
• BPC reporting accuracy suspect
• CAP needed if over 95%
UIPL regarding target:
• http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/UIPL/UIPL28-09.pdf
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Time lines

BAM Operational rate dates
• Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1

BPC Dates
• Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2

WEB site to view your rate yearly (GPRA):
• http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/gpra.asp

WEB site to view your 3 year rate (Core
Measure)
• http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/3yr_overpay.asp
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Understanding the Website
Col 5



Column 1 = yearly total of cm4
Column 2 = Computed Operational Rate
Column 3 = Column 1* Column 2
• $540,341,335 * .0347 = $18,749,844
• Not a perfect match due to rounding


Column 4 = yearly total of 227 OP data
Column 5 = Column 4 / Column 3
• $10,994,408 / $18,759,207 = .58608
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Review

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BAM uses a sample
Overpayments/Amount paid
Weighted to accurately represent the
population
Need a complete year of data
Rate includes only overpayments that are
recoverable and reasonably detectable
Compare rate to a full year, 6 months later
for BPC activity
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