Transcript CCB Format
Air Armament Center
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Integrated Program Assessment Status
28 February 2008
Mr. Deryl Israel
AAC/EN DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A
: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 1
Outline
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Integrated Assessment (IA) Update
IA purpose & background
Progress since 2007 Industry Day
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Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) summary
FY06-07 activity & results
Lessons learned: How to do better SRs
Lessons learned: How to build better programs
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Way Ahead: Plans for 2008
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Assessment Purpose & Background
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Historically, Eglin programs have
Cost overruns of 15%-30%
Schedule slips of 6-12 months
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Since FY06, deployed and integrated a suite of assessments to execute AAC’s vision--War winning capabilities… on time, on cost
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Intent is to create and maintain a high confidence portfolio
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High-Confidence Programs
Key Characteristics* War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Good “Should-Cost” Estimate Budget/Cost Estimate alignment Approved time-phased CDD requirements Program office resourcing Requirements stability Budget stability mechanism Incremental program plan Short-duration capability release/production schedules SDD phase no greater than 6 years Tech / manufacturing maturity assessment thresholds met Integrated sustainment and depot strategy Realistic test planning, Approved IOT&E plan Life-cycle acquisition strategy —time certain success incentive Executing according to “plan” Probability of Program Success (PoPS) measures
* As Defined by D&SWS design teams
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AFPEO/WP Policy, 23 May 07
AAC Integrated Assessments War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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These assessments will help us collaborate with our government stakeholders and industry to improve our acquisition processes and align expectations.
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AAC acquisition commanders/directors must effectively employ the assessments during program planning and execution
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Assessment leaders will provide results to the PEO/Deputy PEO, Weapons; commanders or directors of appropriate AAC line units; and the AAC Center Senior Functional owning the assessment being reported.
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Spiral 2 Assessment Engine
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
Rollout Spring ‘08
Technology Readiness & Integration Assessment (TRA)
Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA)
Systems Engineering Assessment (SEA)
Probability of Program Success (PoPS) Cost Sufficiency Review (CSR) Program Sufficiency Review (PSR) Probability of Program Success (PoPS) 6
POM Input
TRA’/ MRA’
AAC Assessment Life Cycle
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost MS A MS B MS C
TRA/ MRA’ TRA/ MRA’ MRA/ TRA’
Sustainment
MRA/ TRA’
(As Required)
CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR
(As Required)
SEA
Updated
SEA
Quarterly
SEA SEA LHA
Updated
LHA
Monthly
LHA PoPS
Updated
PoPS
Monthly
PoPS PSR PSR PSR PoPS PSR PoPS PSR
(As Required)
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Progress Since 2007 Industry Day
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Probability of Program Success (PoPS)
Consistent monthly updates in SMART
Internal audits drive process compliance
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Cost Sufficiency Review
Earlier collaboration between staff & programs Manufacturing Readiness Assessment
Updated guide published 30 Nov 07 Logistics Health Assessment
Increment 1 design complete; approved by AFMC/A4
Increment 2 design to include Pre MS B coverage Sufficiency Reviews
Co-chaired by AAC/EN, 308 th ARSW/CL
PoPS-based template; promotes standard work
Action item status reported at program reviews
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FY06 AAC Sufficiency Reviews
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
O N D J F M A M J J A S Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS Focused Lethality Munition Wind-Correct Mun Disp-Ext Range Laser JDAM Covert Resupply (COVERS) G / None Canceled major redesign req’d G / None User requirement withdrawn BLU-122 Rebaseline AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS Canceled- producibility issues AMRAAM FY08 POM MALD SDD Rebaseline AMRAAM Rebaseline Air Superiority Target FY08 POM MALD Universal Armament Interface COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS Munition Assy Conveyor II MS C NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS ALM MK82 DIME Very Small Munition User did not include in POM R / None / FY08 funding issue Y / None Contract award: FY10 Plan presented at EWSR AAC/CA Approved Prod Concept provided to SECAF Concept provided to AFSOC Tactical Laser for Airfield Defense I-500 Penetrator Small Concept Weapon on Predator Adaptive Carriage Enterprise Close Air Support Weapons Hd Tgt Void Sens Fuze Risk Reduct Concept provided to ACC Concept provided to ACC Assessment sent to AFMC/CC Concept provided to SOCOM Concept provided to AFSOC PDRR on track; JCTD starts FY08 AAC Totals Realistic
20 (13 7 ) 1 2 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0 2 3
Realistic, Carries Risk
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FY07 AAC Sufficiency Reviews
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
O N D J F M A M J J A S Current MAR/Rebaselines since SR/Notes AIR-TO-GROUND PROGRAMS AMSTE-JDAM JASSM-ER Restructure JASSM Maritime Interdiction User requirement withdrawn R / None – Awaiting N-M decision R / None – Awaiting N-M decision JDAM Production Laser JDAM SDB II Cost (prior to DoD CAIG rvw) SFW Production FY10 POM G / None G / None G / None G / None AIR-TO-AIR PROGRAMS AST Business Jet AoA MALD-J SDD AST QF-16 Update COMBAT SUPPORT PROGRAMS CRIIS Rapid Prototype Joint Threat Emitter CRIIS Risk Reduction & SDD P5 Combat Training System AoA eliminated concept G / None PDRR Contract award: FY10 Prototype effort: on track G / None Contract award: FY08 G / None Automated Remote Transport Sys G / None CRIIS Test & Training NEW CONCEPT PROGRAMS Adv Tactical Laser Ext User Eval Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze JCTD Massive Ordnance Penetrator QRC Hard Tgt Void Sensing Fuze AAC Totals
22 (6 16 ) 3 1 4 3 2 3 1 1 1 0 1 2
Contract award: FY10 Extended User Eval JCTD User requirement withdrawn FY08 JCTD; SDD start: FY10 Realistic Realistic, Carries Risk
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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13 6 0
AAC Portfolio Performance
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
2006 Overall Program Health
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 7 7 8 7 6 6 8 11 9 8 8 9 11 12 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Months
Program Rebaselines: 3 14 12 7 11 11 12 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Red Programs Yellow Programs Green Programs 11
AAC Portfolio Performance
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 5 10 1 4 11 1 4 11
2007 Overall Program Health
1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 11 4 11 4 11 4 11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Months
Program Rebaselines: 2 4 11 4 11 2 12 Aug Sep Oct 2 2 12 2 2 12 Nov Dec Red Programs Yellow Programs Green Programs 12
Lessons Learned
How to do better Sufficiency Reviews
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Do: Employ cross-functional approach when completing assessments Use proper versions of process guides/tools (e.g. PoPS spreadsheet) Conduct sufficient “deep dives” into appropriate individual assessments Address weaponeering & mission planning across entire life cycle Present efficient and effective test plans built with CTA & RTO inputs Incentivize supplier decision processes when transitioning to production Identify opportunities to validate manufacturing processes Carefully select cost/schedule benchmarks Conduct thorough Cost SRs prior to Program SRs Use PoPS results in Program SRs to identify, communicate risks
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Don’t: Assume all AAC programs will be low-risk efforts Over-optimistically evaluate programs View Cost and Program SRs as the IG; they are home team help
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Assessments Becoming AF Tools
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War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
AAC leaders assigned to AFSO21 Develop & Sustain Warfighting Systems (D&SWS) teams
Ms Stokley, AAC/CA, co-sponsored Life Cycle Management; Oversight/Command & Control teams
Ms Rutledge, 708ARSG/CL; Mr Mistretta, AAC/EN; Tech Development team
Mr Walley, 918ARSG/DD; Life Cycle Management team
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Assessments endorsed by AFMC/CC; SAF/AQ to create & maintain high-confidence programs
PoPS: key risk management tool & metric
TRAs/MRAs: enable “stage gating” milestones
SEA: moving toward AFMC-wide application
LHA: Sponsored by AFMC/A4
Sufficiency Reviews: req’d at key decision points
AF-level Implementation planning now underway
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Building Better Programs
Attaining High Confidence War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Better transition planning, decisions via technology and manufacturing assessments, PoPS, Pre-MS B risk reduction phase* Iterative requirements that evolve, provide trade space prior to MS B* Stable requirements for a given increment* Realistic resourcing ($$ and people)* Risk-based source selections* Strong, consistent Systems Engineering processes* Incremental development w/ discrete offramps* Incentivize sustainment (affordability/availability)* Proactive risk management* Early, active test community involvement in test planning Up-front weaponeering & mission planning —and resources
* Proposed by D&SWS design teams
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Way Ahead: 2008 Plans
War-winning Capabilities…On Time, On Cost
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Share AAC processes/lessons learned via D&SWS
Enable running start at other centers
Facilitate PoPS training at other Centers
Personnel from other Centers attend AAC IA events
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Design LHA Increment 2 (supports pre-MS B efforts) Align AAC IA improvements with D&SWS
Integrate near-term AFMC; SAF/AQ decisions
Minimize scrap & rework as AF standards adopted
Continue process standardization
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Leverage assessments to streamline doc prep
Summarize key results in AAC Expectation Mgt Agreements
Use assessment products to streamline Life Cycle Mgt Plan creation/updates via Zero Based Documentation pilots
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