Transcript Day-2-Democratization

Democratization

‘Democratisation studies examine and
explain the processes whereby government,
states and societies attempt to move away
from some form of authoritarianism towards
some form of democracy’ (Grugel: 2002)
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‘a mode of decision-making about
collectively binding rules and policies over
which the people exercise control, and the
most democratic arrangement [is] that where
all members of the collectivity enjoy effective
equal rights to take part in such decisionmaking directly.’ (Beetham: 1992)
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How did it all start?
– On 17 December 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a poor
vegetable seller had his cart confiscated and was
humiliated by a policewomen in the town of Sidi
Bouzid. Municipal officials refused to see him.
Bouazizi doused himself in a flammable liquid and
set fire to himself.
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This was the catalyst for riots and protests in
Tunisia which then spread across the Arab
World to challenge other longstanding
authoritarian regimes
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Tunisia
– After several weeks of anti government
demonstrations, the Jasmine Revolution, President
Ben Ali fled the country
– 23 years in power
– First interim PM too closely identified with old
regime and replaced by opposition figures
– Elections on 24 July to choose a constituent
assembly to rewrite constitution
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Egypt
– Started with a protest demonstration on 25 January
2011 a national holiday to commemorate the police
– From ‘a day of rage’ the protest movement moved
towards demands for regime change
– Daily mass protests focused on Tahrir Square
– 3 March President Mubarak resigned after over 3
decades in office
– Supposed to be a referendum on constitutional
amendment in June followed by an election 6 weeks
later
– Over 400 killed
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Libya
◦ Protests began in Benghazi after police shot two
men at a rally demanding the release of a human
rights lawyer
◦ Colonel Gaddafi (and family) in power for 40 years
although he says People’s Committees’ and
General People’s Congress rule
◦ Developed into civil war
Scenes from the North African Uprisings
Country
Population Corrup Poverty
(millions)
tion
(% of
(178)
pop)
Median
age
(years)
Adult
literacy
(% of
pop !5
years+)
Political
rights/c
ivil
liberties
Yemen
24.1
146
41.8
17.9
61
6/5
Libya
6.6
146
n/a
24.2
88
7/7
Egypt
82.1
98
16.7
24
66
6/5
Syria
22.5
127
n/a
21.5
n/a
7/6
Saudi
Arabia
26.1
50
n/a
24.9
n/a
7/6
Algeria
35.0
105
22.6
27.1
73
6/5
Jordan
6.5
50
14.2
21.8
92
6/5
Tunisia
10.6
59
7.6
29.7
78
7/5
Morocco
31.9
85
19
26.5
56
5/4
Bahrain
1.2
48
n/a
30.4
91
6/5
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First, what DID NOT cause the uprisings:
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No
No
No
No
No
foreign agency
Al Queda or associates
religious-based ideology
disaffected elites
military participation
The democratic uprisings or revolutions came
as a surprise – especially to foreign powers
which had propped up authoritarian regimes
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Poverty
Social exclusion
Demographic bulge of young people with no work
Corruption
Personal enrichment of leaders and cronies
Rising prices
Awareness of political alternatives
Lack of political freedoms
Feelings of relative deprivation
Higher levels of education
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The uprisings revealed disillusionment and anger
across the region
Great structural tensions
Secular rather than religious character
Distributed leadership in uprisings
Coming together of different groups (classes,
gender, ideologies)
Determination to take national control of history
Countries least effected made early concessions or
had superior coercive powers
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Egypt
Interim government
Working towards constitutional change
Elections keenly contested –Islamist President
Military a key in Egypt as other government
institutions dysfunctional and subject to strikes
◦ Muslim Brotherhood could do well in Egypt
◦ Egypt still unsettled – riots going on – as people
annoyed at slow pace of change and some antidemocratic decisions of the President
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Most prosperous of the countries in North
Africa
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Former ruling party banned
Constitutional change
100+ political parties registered
Elections in October 2011
90% turn-out
Islamist victory BUT people don’t seem to want an
Islamist state RATHER see Islamists as providing the
cleanest break with corrupt authoritarian past
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Murder of leading opposition politician in February
2013
Protests and counter protests
PM dissolved government and tried unsuccessfully to
set up cabinet of technocrats
His party objected and he resigned
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Libya
◦ A civil war in Libya
◦ Government forces fired live ammunition at protesters –
more severe reaction than elsewhere
◦ Extraordinary outpouring of hatred for Gaddafi regime from
his grassroots opponents
◦ Gaddafi forces included foreign mercenaries
◦ Some Libyan military defected as rebels marched on to
defeat Gaddafi
◦ NATO support for rebels
◦ Now interim government and patchwork of armed militias
◦ Human rights abuses
◦ Difficult to judge who has legitimacy and what system of
government will emerge
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Syria
◦ President Assad took over from father in 2000 and
promised reform
◦ Little has changed including 1963 Emergency Law
◦ Protests started in March 2011 and spread
◦ At least 60,000 killed
◦ Military deserters and some citizens turned struggle into
armed conflict
◦ Government calls them ‘terrorists and armed gangs’ and
talks of ‘international conspiracy’
◦ Arab League peace monitors no effect
◦ Russia and China prevented action from UN
◦ No sign of resolution
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Protests still continue in countries across the
region, most seriously in Yemen
Some regimes (eg Jordan, Algeria) have attempted
to placate protesters by promising changes or
bringing in the opposition to the political process
(eg Bahrain)
After decades of authoritarianism there is a lack of
democratic institutions – not only popularly elected
parliaments but a free press, an independent civil
society, freedom of speech
HOWEVER, these are authentically Arab uprisings
that will find resolution within the countries
concerned BUT in what ways we don’t know.
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Has been argued that after the Third Wave of
democratisation, many regimes are hybrids
◦ Not consolidated democracies
◦ Elements of authoritarianism
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Consolidation has occurred
◦ Behaviourally when no significant groups are trying to
overthrow democracy or secede
◦ Attitudinally when the majority of citizens regard
democratic forms as the best way to govern collective life
◦ Constitutionally when the formal laws and rules are seen as
the legitimate ways to resolve conflicts
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Diamond’s (2002) scheme of hybrid
democracies
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Liberal democracy
Electoral democracy
Ambiguous
Competitive authoritarian
Hegemonic closed authoritarian
Politically closed authoritarian
Regime Types in Southeast Asia 2001 and 2007
Electoral
Liberal
democracy democracy
End of
2001
AsiaB
Survey
2007
Philippines
Thailand
Philippines
3&3
Indonesia
2&3
Ambiguous
Hegemonic
Politically
Competitive
electoral
closed
authoritarian
authoritarian authoritarian
Indonesia
Malaysia
Malaysia
4&4
Cambodia
Laos
Myanmar
Cambodia
6&5
Laos
7&6
Myanmar
7&6
Thailand
7&4
Numerical values = 2007 Freedom House scores for ‘political rights’ and ‘civil liberties’
On a scale of 1-7 where 1 is most free and 7 is least free
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Democratic consolidation is rare in poor
countries and UN and other organisations
work to reduce ‘democratic deficits’ and
‘deepen democracy’ as measured by eg
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Voter turn-out
Women in parliament
TU membership
NGOs
Open media
Transparency
Legal impartiality
Checks on chief executive