Transcript Cities 2100 - Dawson College Bound

What would the city of 2100
look like?
Dave James, PhD PE
Brook Demitropoulos, PE
Alan Riekki, PLS
First, let’s think back 86 years, to 1928
• We had many features of modern
cities. Things that were fairly
common:
• Electricity
• Telephone
• Mass transit
• Automobiles
• Carriage of sewerage away from
cities
• Piped drinking water (usually
filtered or chlorinated in most big
US and west European cities)
• Skyscrapers (pushing past 50
stories)
• High speed intercity transit via rail
– rail was the dominant mode for
moving passengers
• Radio communications
• Rapid market transactions via
teletype and telephone
Some images, Cities of 1928
Los Angeles City Hall http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/thedailymirror/image
s/2008/07/31/spring_st_1st_1928_city_hall.jpg
New York downtown http://hooniverse.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/02/Driving-aroundNYC-700x462.jpg
Plan for Austin, Tx, 1928 – no freeways! – no
airport! – unthinkable today
http://www.eastendculturaldistrict.org/cms/sites/default/files/imagecache/colu
mn-display/acityplan.jpg
City image – 1945 – Pittsburgh steel mill
Source: http://www.brooklineconnection.com/history/Facts/images/SmokeyCity2.JPG
This was a common sight in North America and Europe and Asia through 1960’s – symbolized economic progress and growth
How do you view this image today? What were the consequences of production without a thought to environment and health?
Things that were just starting to develop
• Air travel – still risky and slow
• Modern intercity highways
• Air conditioning
• Treatment of sewage
• Air pollution control
• Lightweight high-strength metal
alloys (e.g. aluminum)
• Flood control
• Mechanized agriculture
• Modern rocketry ( Goddard’s
first experiments with liquid
fueled rockets)
• Automated electromechanical
controls and “servos”
Things common today that were absent in
1928
• Television (first experimental systems
were being tested)
• Satellite communications
• Voice communications anywhere in
world
• Electronic computers (there were
some mechanical adding/sorting
machines)
• The suburb
• Industrial robots
• Landfills that isolated wastes
• Convenience foods / fast food
restaurants
• Container shipping
• Modern antibiotics
• Modern medical diagnostic imaging
procedures
• Organic chemistry-based pesticides
and herbicides
• Soil conservation
• Higher education for anyone seeking it
• The supermarket!
• The refrigerator (people used ice
boxes)
In summary, compared to today
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•
•
•
•
The North American city of 1928 was
Dirtier and smellier
Less convenient to live in
More dependent on nearby resources
Slower to reach from another city
More crowded (fewer single family
residences)
• Had some suburbs (thanks to rail)
• Didn’t have freeways surrounding or
bisecting the urban areas – but had
crowded streets
• The North American city of 2014
• Has cleaner air and water
• A plethora of resources for obtaining
material goods
• Has goods and commerce from all
over the world
• Can be reached from anywhere in the
globe in 24 hours or less
• Is often ringed by suburbs with fewer
city residents
• Still has bad traffic! – more so on the
approaches and departures to the
urban area
So, how to project 86 years in the future?
• Some emerging trends:
• Re-urbanization – recolonizing urban
areas and building new creative and
convenient communities
• Examples – Berlin, London, San
Francisco
• High speed high bandwidth
communication - less need to travel to
stay in contact or community
• Wearable tech – the supercomputer
on your wrist
• “Locavore” food production and green
roofs
• Nonrenewable energy costs rising –
transition to renewables – carbon
neutrality! (Dockside Green)
• Smart, self-driving cars – personalized
efficient mass transit
• Big data and Fast data (Microsoft city)
• Instant language translation
• 3D printing/additive manufacturing
• Adaptation to global warming and
rising sea levels
• 11 billion people on the planet?
Some links you can follow for more
information
• Microsoft campus – 88 acre smart city – using “internet of things”
http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/stories/88acres/88-acreshow-microsoft-quietly-built-the-city-of-the-future-chapter-1.aspx
• City of 2057 - a speculative docudrama http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/2057-the-city-of-the-future/
• Five Green cities of the future –
• http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/5green-future-cities.htm
Microsoft campus – looking west to Seattle
downtown – doesn’t look that different
But it’s the connections, the data, and the use of the data that are different!
Or maybe it will look a lot different! – See
http://www.docksidegreen.com/?option
Dockside Green – planned to become North America’s first carbon-neutral city
Sustainability – driven by need to slow or reverse
climate change and contain its impacts
• Continue to implement the good
• LEED certification for buildings
• ENVISION certification for
infrastructure
• Shift to renewable energy
resources
• Disseminate medical advances
• Improve education for all
• Reduce per capita impact on the
planet at a rate faster than the
population rise
• Avert harm caused by the bad
• Rising sea levels – protect coastal
cities and lands
• Increasing global temperatures
• Shifts in rainfall distribution
• Continued migration to cities to
seek a better life
• Increased risk of new disease
outbreaks
LEED resources
• LEED means – “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design”
• US Green Building Council link: - http://www.usgbc.org/leed
• Example news item – Target stores obtained LEED certification for all 124
store locations that opened in Canada in 2013.
• See http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140626-906923.html
• LEED applies to
•
•
•
•
•
Building Design and Construction
Interior Design and Construction
Building Operations and Maintenance
Neighborhood Development
Homes
Average savings of a Green building
http://www.gogreenmechanisms.com/images/leed-certification.jpg
Examples of Green buildings
UNLV SEB building http://space.unlv.edu/images/home/sebnight-578.jpg LEED silver
Arizona State Univ Tempe campus http://www.asu.edu/fm/images/leed/istb
1_leed.jpg
But what about the Infrastructure? ENVISION
• American Society of Civil Engineers developed a Sustainable
Infrastructure Rating System
• See http://www.asce.org/Sustainability/ISI-Rating-System/
• “The Envision™ rating system is a project assessment and guidance
tool for sustainable infrastructure design. It is an objective framework
of criteria and performance achievements that helps users identify
ways in which sustainable approaches can be used to plan, design,
construct, and operate infrastructure projects. Envision™ provides an
opportunity for infrastructure owners and designers to be recognized
for using a life cycle approach, working with communities, and using a
restorative approach to infrastructure projects.”
The key aspects are Life Cycle Approach and Working with Communities
Another resource for learning more
• Institute for Sustainable Infrastructure – (ISI)
• See https://www.sustainableinfrastructure.org/downloads/index.cfm
• Has many educational resources
What would a sustainable infrastructure project look like? W J
Hernandez sport fish hatchery – Anchorage, AK
Outside – See:
http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=fishingSp
ortStockingHatcheries.williamjackhernandez
Inside http://www.hdrinc.com/sites/all/files/content/projects
/images/4248-william-jack-hernandez-sport-fishhatchery-3795.jpg
Categories for rating infrastructure projects
using Envision.
http://www.hdrinc.com/sites/all/files/envision-2.jpg
Many cities in 2100 will be hotter, drier, and
more crowded
• To make the planet sustainable we must improve both
• Physical infrastructure,
• Schools, hospitals, housing, transportation, green spaces, food and water
distribution
• And social infrastructure!
• Investment in good working conditions and sustainable, challenging work
• Balanced economies – globally equitable balance of trade
• We could build great, sustainable cities, but without educated and
caring population, they’ll be quickly ruined!
We can make our planet
• More humane, more habitable, more just, or
• More violent, less safe, and more arbitrary
• WHICH DO YOU WANT?
• To do the former, requires an integrated approach to development
• Social systems
• Economic systems
• Engineered systems
• To do the latter, we can keep on the same course as now; lack of
corporate and individual responsibility, “me first at all costs”, and have
social systems based on punishment and fear
• THE CHOICE IS OURS – THE CHOICE IS YOURS TO MAKE, RIGHT NOW!
Are any of today’s cities physically showing
signs of the future, already?
• Yes, for the good
• Bike/pedestrian friendly zoning
with access to mass transit – eg
Amsterdam, Berlin
• Green roofs – in Washington DC
• Adding renewable supplies – e.g.
Boston, for Wind turbines
• Carbon neutral planning
• Yes, for the bad
• Netherlands & Venice – building
barriers for sea level rise, also New
Jersey and New York shorelines
• Las Vegas – 3rd straw to Lake Mead
• San Diego, desalination facilities
• More prisons, more walls, more
camps, to contain and detain
migrants seeking a better life
How about social infrastructure?
• For the good:
• Many far-sighted visionaries investing
in improved education and health
care
• Scandanavian countries, in particular,
are conducting all planning and
construction with sustainability in
mind
• And have invested heavily in
education and social services
• High Taxes, but high level of services
and high quality of life
• For the bad:
• USA has highest incarceration rate in
the developed world
• Reactionary political forces deny
scientific evidence and promote a
culture of fear and denial
• Wars for resources starting –
pushback against Chinese & American
monopolization of fossil resources
• Water disputes
• Europe/Ukraine/Russia – GazProm
• Mass migration/refugees –from wars
and poverty!
Class participation Question: Does SimCity 4
let you set social priorities?
• What kind? (go to workstations
monitors and look at menus)
• Let’s make a list! (need a scribe)
Class participation question #2 - Does SimCity
4 reward the “right” choices?
• Examples you found:
Are there powerful interests resisting change?
• Yes, for example,
• King Coal- denying climate change,
resisting environmental controls
• Oil and gas – slowing renewables
development
• Market-driven forces and national
attitudes – China/India consuming
more coal, oil and gas than the West
can conserve
• Western companies “offshoring”
factory production at the cost of
environmental and occupational
safety in developing countries (note, a
“reshoring” effort is starting)
• Ourselves – choosing convenience and
safety over environmental
responsibility
• Bigger houses than we need
• Big SUVs to be safe in a crash and have
lots of amenities
• Driving instead of walking or biking
because Las Vegas is too hot and
perceived to be too unsafe
• Buying unsustainable or unjust products
because they are cheap and attractive
• Using religion, tradition, patriotism as
excuses for maintaining ignorance and
supporting the use of violence and
abuse for control
A sustainable planet in 2100, or one on the
way to that
• Will have to have made some
changes NOW
• More investments in social
infrastructure – schools, medical
care, social support
• More investments in economic
infrastructure, other than
gambling!
• Greater emphasis on sustainablyproduced products and services for
export, that . (see )
• More investment in sustainable
physical infrastructure that (see )
• Uses fewer resources in the life
cycle of construction, use,
demolition
• Uses more renewable energy and
• Uses less energy per person and
• Redefines how we can live safe,
happy, and productive lives in
community with each other
How to do this?
• Think BIG! – understand your part
in an expansive vision of attaining a
sustainable community
• Think TEAM! – many areas of
expertise are needed to bring this
about, (planners, engineers and
architects, yes) but also teachers,
negotiators, medical workers,
planners, industrialists, and all
skilled trades
• Think INTEGRATED – look at all the
components affected by the
decision or the system that you
build
• Think SOON! –
• Climate change is past the tipping
point
• Water, energy, land, and food more
scarce and more expensive
• What appear to be wars for
territory often have resources at
their base
• China in the western Pacific and
south china Sea – oil and gas
• Russia in Ukraine – gas pipelines
• ISIS – already destabilizing world oil
prices
Think of integrated life-cycle costs
• Example – compare renewable to
non-renewable energy to power a city
or a nation. Compare ALL the costs
• Non-renewables may be cheaper per joule,
but what are the social, environmental and
health costs not included in the price?
• Cost of guarding the oil wells – born by
taxpayers
• Cost of cleaning up the mess – (or not
cleaning it at all and damaging health and
wild lands or agricultural lands)
• Cost of degradation of occupational and
public health - born by taxpayers
• Cost to continue to upgrade infrastructure to
deal with climate change effects? – born by
taxpayers
• Note, renewables are not risk-free or
cost-free or impact-free
• Still have to mine the components - there
will be some environmental degradation
at the mines and the generating sites –
but is it worse or better than nonrenewable extraction?
• Are the public health costs lower or
higher if the air is cleaner?
• Security impacts. For example, If I
generate energy locally, do I need as big a
tanker fleet and as big a navy to guard the
tankers?
• Will I need to build the seawalls as high
and as fast if climate change is slowed or
reversed?
The power to invent a safe, sustainable
and humane urban society is in your
hands!
Both now, in Cities2100, and in SimCity,
and in the near-future as you decide on
careers and enter the workforce!
Thank you!