Transcript Market & Industry Data by Rheal Gingras, Domtar Inc.

COPA
Market & Industry Data
December 12th, 2012
Domtar Market & Industry Data
North American UFS Industry Data
• UFS demand decreased 4.3% in YTD Oct. 2012 vs.
YTD Oct. 2011
• UFS mill inventory ended Sept. 2012 at 26 days of
supply, same as Sept. 2011
• UFS operating rates were 89% MTD Oct. 2012 &
90% Oct. YTD
Source: PPPC
2
Domtar Market & Industry Data
UCF DEMAND
YTD Oct.-12 YTD Oct.-11
000’s tons
Uncoated woodfree
Operating rate (Oct. MTD: 89%)
Total UFS demand
Cut-size demand
Offset & Opaque demand
Envelope demand
Forms Bond demand
Other UFS demand
90%
8,189
3,760
2,012
814
617
988
90%
8,559
3,890
2,135
871
654
1,010
%
change
-4.3%
-3.3%
-5.8%
-6.5%
-5.7%
-2.2%
3
Domtar Market & Industry Data
UFS Industry Demand
950,000
2010
900,000
850,000
2011
800,000
2012
750,000
Oct. YTD demand is 4.3% below 2011
700,000
Source: PPPC
4
Domtar Market & Industry Data
North American Cut-Size* Shipments
10 shipments
11 shipments
Mar
Jun
12 shipments
400,000
350,000
300,000
Jan
•
Source: PPPC
Feb
Apr
May
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Cut-size includes colors multipurpose
5
Domtar Market & Industry Data
N.A. UFS Share by Capacity - 2012
Total Capacity* = 11,096,000 short tons
Source: RISI Capacity Report
6
Domtar Market & Industry Data
N.A. UFS History of Capacity
‘000 of tons
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
-6.0%
-6.2%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-2.4%
2011
-1.4%
2012
• UFS capacity declined 6.2% in 2010, 2.4% in 2011, and -1.4% so far in 2012
*Capacity numbers include the following: Mohawk’s, Wausau’s & Appleton closures, scheduled maintenance shutdowns, and
scheduled UFS annual capacity of coated producers. Also added are the reopenings of Gorham & Gray’s Harbor paper
machines
Source: PPPC
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Domtar Market & Industry Data
N.A. UFS Demand Forecast
in ’000 of tons
14,000
-5.3%
12,000
PPPC Forecast
-7.6%
-12.7%
0.1%
10,000
-3.8%
-3.5%
8,000
-3.8%
6,000
-12%
2007
2008
2009-12%
-1%
-0%
2010
-1.0%
-1.0%
2011
-2.8%
-3.2%
-4.0%
4,000
RISI Forecast
-4%
-4%
2012
-2.8%
-3%
-4%
2013
• %’s from past years may differ due to different calculation methologies (Imports, exports, ITB etc.)
Source: PPPC/RISI
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Domtar Market & Industry Data
UFS Demand Forecast by Grade
In‘000 tons
Forecast
6,000
-2.7% in 2012
5,500
Copy
-2.0% in 2013
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
-5.5% in 2012
Offset & Opaque
-4.8 % in 2013
3,000
2,500
-5.7% in 2012
2,000
Envelope
1,500
-3.8% in 2013
1,000
-6.8% in ’12
500
Forms Bond
-3.8% in ‘13
0
2004
Source: PPPC
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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Domtar Market & Industry Data
Printing & Writing N.A.
Operating Rate YTD 2012 vs. 2011
(Operating rates %)
Oct. 2011
Oct. 2012
95%
94%
94%
93% 93%
93%
92%
92%
91%
90%
91%
90% 90%
89%
89%
88%
87%
86%
UCFS
Source: PPPC
Unc. Mech
CWF
CM
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Domtar Market & Industry Data
Distribution Channel – Market Share
Online/Direct
8%
Club Stores
.4%
Food/Drug/Mass
.7%
Wholesalers
8.3%
Distribution
Channel
2011
Tons
2010
% Market Share
2011
% Market Share
Merchants
869,000
25.2%
21.9%
OEM
232,000
5.5%
5.9%
Office Store – Retail
400,000
8.2%
10.1%
Office Store - Contract
1,774,000
46.8%
44.7%
Food/Drug/Mass
28,000
.7%
.7%
Club Stores
17,000
.8%
.4%
Wholesalers
329,000
7%
8.3%
Online/Direct
315,000
5.9%
8.0%
Total
3,965,000
Merchants
21.9%
Office Store –
Contract
44.7%
OEM
5.9%
Office Store – Retail
10.1%
Source: PPPC
100%
Domtar Market & Industry Data
Brand – Market Share
All Others
2.8%
OEM
8.7%
Mill Brand
29.3%
Source: PPPC
Private Label
59.2%
Brand
2011
Tons
2010
% Market Share
2011
% Market Share
Mill Brand
1,163,000
30.5%
29.3%
OEM
344,000
9.2%
8.7%
Private Label
2,347,000
57.9%
59.2%
All Others
111,000
2.6%
2.8%
Total
3,965,000
100%