Transcript Modernisation and secularisation quantified

Modernisation and secularisation
quantified
Marion Burkimsher
Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Modernization and secularization
quantified
Marion Burkimsher
Observatoire des Religions,
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
HDI
All countries moved from left to right, ie to a higher HDI, except Belarus and Russia
Measure of modernisation: the Human Development Index
Composite indicator (max. 100) combining measures of:
• Health: life expectancy at birth
• Education: adult literacy and school enrolment
• Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP)
Measure of secularisation: attendance at religious services
World Values Survey:
data from 4 waves 1981, 1990, 1999, 2006
Attendance at religious service:
at least once a month = attender
Any religion, self-defined by respondent
45 countries: needed to have HDI data and WVS data
for 2 years, so that a trend could be plotted
Highly developed countries are over-represented
Because of measurement and sampling issues, any data
point can have a wide margin of uncertainty
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1981-1984
100
90
80
% attenders
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada,
Denmark, France, Great Britain, Hungary,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea,
Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden,
United States (19 countries)
0
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1981-1984
100
90
80
% attenders
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada,
Denmark, France, Great Britain, Hungary,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, S. Korea,
Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden,
United States (19 countries)
0
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1989-1993
100
90
80
% attenders
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil,
Belarus, Canada, Chile, China,
Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland,
France, Great Britain, Hungary,
Iceland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
S. Korea, Latvia, Malta, Mexico,
Netherlands,
Nigeria, Norway, Philippines,
Poland, Portugal, Romania,
Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey,
United States (37 countries)
0
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
Religiosity - Human Development Index 1995-2002
100
90
80
% attenders
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil,
Belarus, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Czech
Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Great Britain,
Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland,
Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Latvia, Malta, Mexico,
Moldova, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Peru,
Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia,
Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Ukraine, United States, Viet Nam
(45 countries)
0
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
Religiosity - Human Development Index 2005-2007
80
70
% attenders
60
50
40
30
20
10
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile,
China, Finland, France, Great Britain, India,
Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, Mexico,
Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Peru, Poland,
Romania, Russia, Slovenia,South Africa, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United States,
Viet Nam (33 countries)
0
44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
HDI
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development
being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of
values is wide
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
The area between the black dashed lines can be considered
the “natural level” of religiosity of a population given its
level of development.
This “normal band” is roughly the trendline +/- 10%
These countries have been in the “normal band” at some
point:
India, Turkey, Brazil, Iran, Romania, South Korea,
Hungary, Slovenia, Great Britain, Belgium, Australia,
Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Finland, Norway,
Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland (21 countries)
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
These countries have been above the “normal band” and
their most recent trend is downwards:
Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile,
Malta, Poland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands,
Spain, Canada, United States, Australia (16 countries)
However, these countries are above the “normal band” but
have not seen recent falls:
South Africa, Nigeria, South Korea, Italy, Portugal
(5 countries)
Exceptions to prove the rule?
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
These countries were initially below the “normal band”
but are now closer to it (most have seen rises in
attendance rates):
Moldova, Viet Nam, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia,
Latvia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Finland
(11 countries)
Only Bulgaria is the exception to this pattern, having
moved a little further away from the “normal band”
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development
being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of
values is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related
to a country’s level of development and there is
convergence towards this
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development
being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of
values is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related
to a country’s level of development and there is
convergence towards this
Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival,
which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if
that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South
Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania
Religiosity-Human Development Index
100
Malta
Nigeria
90
Philippines
Ireland
80
Poland
Indonesia
70
India
60
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
United States
S Korea
Italy
Argentina
50
Portugal
Iran
40
30
Austria
Romania
Turkey
Canada
Spain
Moldova
Hungary
Great Britain
Ukraine
20
Viet Nam
10
Latvia Bulgaria
China
Belarus
Czech Rep
Russia
HDI
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
0
44
% attenders
South Africa
Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development
being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of
values is wide
Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related
to a country’s level of development and there is
convergence towards this
Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival,
which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if
that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South
Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania
Conclusion 4: Many countries are approaching maximum
development (as defined by the HDI), but the minimum
attendance rates would appear to be around 10-20% of the
population
Possible feedback mechanisms
• Health: more religious people tend to have healthier lifestyles - less
smoking, drinking, promiscuity, greater social cohesion
• Education: in highly educated countries, young people are more
likely to be attenders if they have either a high education or a low
educational level
• Wealth: in highly developed countries, individuals in wealthier
households are less likely to be attenders
• Less developed countries attract aid, often delivered by religious
organisations
• Immigration: highly developed countries attract immigrants who
bring their higher religiosity with them
• Fertility: in highly developed countries, attenders have a higher
fertility than secular people
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
45%
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
Australia
40%
35%
Canada
30%
Spain
Austria
Slovenia
Netherlands
25%
Switzerland
Belgium
20%
Great Britain
15%
10%
France
Finland
Norway
Japan
5%
Sweden
Iceland
Denmark
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1984
1983
1982
1981
0%
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
45%
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
Australia
40%
35%
Canada
30%
Spain
Austria
Slovenia
Netherlands
25%
Switzerland
Belgium
20%
Great Britain
15%
10%
France
Finland
Norway
Japan
5%
Sweden
Iceland
Denmark
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1984
1983
1982
1981
0%
Changing proportion of young people (under 30) who were attenders
45%
WVS waves 1981-2007, ESS data 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, EVS 2008
Australia
40%
35%
Canada
30%
Spain
Austria
Slovenia
Netherlands
25%
Switzerland
Belgium
20%
Great Britain
15%
10%
France
Finland
Norway
Japan
5%
Sweden
Iceland
Denmark
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1984
1983
1982
1981
0%
What next?
As many developed countries are approaching “maximum
development” as defined by the HDI, what new factors
will come into play?
The HDI does not consider other measures of
“development”, such as urbanisation,
(tele)communications, insecurity…