Physics-based Performance Prediction at Goodyear

Loren Miller DataMetric Innovations, LLC National Defense Industrial Association "CREATE Physics-based Performance Prediction" March 8, 2011

My Background

• While at Goodyear, responsible for physics-based performance prediction, high performance computing, and physics research.

• Initiated and lead Goodyear's relationship with Sandia National Laboratories.

• Now President, DataMetric Innovations, LLC "The Intersection of Science, Engineering, & IT" • Opinions expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.

Goodyear Background

• Founded in 1898 • Headquartered in Akron, OH • One of the world's leading tire companies • 57 production facilities in 23 countries • $16.3 B in 2009

Prototype-based Design

• Historically, tires were developed by creating a new design concept, building prototypes, then testing them in the lab and on the road.

• The design, build, test cycle is complex, lengthy, and expensive.

• Significant resources were capitalized and dedicated to experimental tire building and testing.

• Design processes and release procedures were written assuming the design/build/test process.

1992 Business Background

• Tire industry is a very competitive oligopoly.

• Failed takeover attempt had drained cash reserves.

• Under pressure to reduce R&D expenditures, VP's of Research and Product Development sponsored a study of alternative product development methods.

• Three alternatives were identified: • More efficient process of building and testing prototypes • Extensive use of predictive testing • Physics-based performance prediction.

Physics-based performance prediction was only alternative that might substantially reduce costs over time.

Vision

New Products

1 Road Test 10 Predictive Tests

1,000 Simulations Scientific Foundation

Technical Complexity

• Tires are surprisingly complex.

• Geometry • Materials • Service conditions • 1992: state-of-the-art performance prediction took months per design for skilled and dedicated finite element analysts.

By the time designers got answers, they’d forgotten their questions.

Internal Complexity

• Modeling Challenges • Incompressible, non-linear, visco elastic material with high (~40%) cyclic strains (rubber) • Inextensible fiber reinforcements (polyester, steel, nylon, aramid) • Flexible structure (sidewall) • Detailed tread patterns • Wide eigenvalue spectrum • Expensive, low fidelity solutions ~ 60 Million Cycles During an 80,000 Mile Tire Lifetime

Material Complexities

• First tensile pull to 100% - red circles • Second pull to 200% - blue triangles • Third pull to 300% - brown diamonds • Initial stress/strain for sample pulled to 300% - black squares Extraordinarily complex material properties.

Hanson, Hawley, and Houlton, Los Alamos National Laboratory, “A Mechanism for the Mullins Effect,” 2006.

Unacceptable Solution Times

• Largest model ever run at Goodyear in 1994 had 90,000 degrees of freedom.

• Took months to run a smooth, axisymmetric static model.

• Estimated minimum model size to simulate tread wear was 250,000 degrees of freedom.

• Tread wear requires a tread pattern and rolling at varying slip angles!

• Solution times increased as the cube of the model size.

• Estimated at 15.6 years on a Cray Y-MP using more memory than Cray ever put in a machine.

• By comparison, build and test for tread wear required four to six months.

No commercial code was capable of solving this problem.

Sandia Partnership

• In 1993, Goodyear partnered with Sandia National Laboratories to develop new technology to solve its "intractable problem." • CRADAs included both experimental and computational projects.

• Extraordinarily successful collaboration!

• Enabled GT to solve intractable design problems.

• Enabled Sandia to solve intractable design problems.

Win-win collaboration!

Fidelity & Time

Solution time compressed from 32.2 years to 5 days!

Award-Winning Technology

Award-Winning Tires

Game Changer

• 2002 Annual Report: "Our objective this year is very simple: Drive the turnaround of our Company.

• 2003 Annual Report: "The (Assurance) tire was developed with unprecedented speed, utilizing our very best technology and extremely talented associates.

• 2004 Annual Report: "We accelerated the introduction of high impact new products.

• 2009 Annual Report: "Our new product engine is poised to take advantage of the demand for high-value-added tires and to do so with unmatched speed to market.

• 2011 Earnings Call, February 20: "Our innovation engine, again, delivered in 2010. The percentage of new products in our overall lineup is the highest ever and is driving record revenue per tire increases, supporting a richer mix and increasing our ability to win in targeted markets." Unmatched speed to market!

Lessons Learned

•

Post mortem

finite element analysis did not lead to breakthroughs in time-to-market, cost, or innovation.

• Conversion to "innovation engine" took 10+ years of consistent direction and purpose.

• Technical partnership was essential.

• Paradigm shift from prototype-based to physics-based product development was "gut wrenching" and required extensive verification and validation.

• Design process standardization, both platform-based and model based, was required.

• Product designers had to do their own physics-based performance prediction.

Bottom Line Results

• Product development times were reduced 67%, from three years to one.

• Expenditures on prototype building and testing dropped 62%.

• Unprecedented string of award-winning new products resulted from the ability to evaluate many more new product alternatives.

Physics-based performance prediction is a strategic asset at Goodyear.

Concern for Our Future

• "The scientific and technological building blocks critical to our economic leadership are eroding at a time when many other nations are gathering strength.

• "This nation must prepare with great urgency to preserve its strategic and economic security.

• "We are worried about the future prosperity of the United States." Augustine

et al

., "Rising Above the Gathering Storm." US National Academies, 2007.

Rapidly Approaching Category 5!

Global Competition

• "Our global competitors are well aware of the great potential of computer simulation. Throughout Europe and Asia, governments are making major investments...

• "We are in danger, once again, of producing world-leading science but leaving it to our competitors to harvest the technological and economic advantages." Oden

et al

., "Simulation-Based Engineering Science." US National Science Foundation, May, 2006.

Leaving it to our competitors…

International Assessment

• "Today we are at a tipping point...

• "The world of computer simulation is becoming flatter every day.

• "Our continued capability as a nation to lead in simulation-based discovery and innovation is key to our ability to compete in the 21st century." Glotzer

et al

., "International Assessment of Research and Development in Simulation-Based Engineering and Science." WTEC, 2009.

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