Transcript Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model
Stages of the Demographic
Transition Model (DTM)
Population Pyramids
Population pyramids in each stage of the demographic
transition tend to follow these shapes
Stage 1: Low Growth
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Pre-industrial societies
Much human suffering
Birth and death rates high
Epidemics, plagues,
famines and wars
Cost of raising a child =
low
Children are “insurance”
for parents in their old age
Population Pyramid – Stage 1
No countries
currently in this
stage
 Some isolated
populations, such
as rainforest tribes
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Stage 2: High Growth
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Death rates decline, but birth rates remain high
 population explosion
Improved sanitation
Greater food supply b/c
of improvements in
agriculture (crop rotation)
Europe – agricultural
revolution  industrial
revolution
Can lead to migration
Population Pyramid – Stage 2
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Ex: Yemen, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Laos, most of
Sub-Saharan Africa
Stage 3: Moderate Growth
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Significant decline in
birth rates
Need for children
Urbanization
Education
Child labor
Contraception use
Women’s rights
Family planning clinic in Kuala Terenganu, Malaysia
Population Pyramid – Stage 3
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Ex: India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan,
Indonesia, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Costa Rica,
Nicaragua
Stage 4: Low to Zero Growth
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Beach in the Netherlands – few children
Birth & death
rates low
Stable (but high)
population
TFR ≤ 2.5
Can include baby
booms
Birth rates lowest
where women are
most involved in
workforce
Population Pyramid – Stage 4
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Ex: US, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New
Zealand, most of Europe, Sri Lanka, Iran, China
Stage 5: Negative Growth
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Japan’s aging population presents different population
problems
Not part of
original DTM
Death rates
higher than
birth rates
Declining
population
TFR ≤ 2.1
In developed
countries
Population Pyramid – Stage 5
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Ex: Japan, Hong Kong, many East European and
East Asian countries