Transcript Misidentification of Risk




There are basic needs or responses for any
type of disaster.
However if you are starting here you are
behind.
Unique events will require unique responses.
Purpose of the analysis is to identify
what hazards pose the greatest threat
to your:
 community
Benefits:
Prioritize
mitigation/reduction and
avoidance
Prioritize planning
Prioritize training and exercises
What is a hazard?
• Internal threats such as loss of power
• External threats such as mass casualties
• Internal and External such as hurricanes or
tornadoes

What Is A Vulnerability:
Poor choices in planning and risk reduction
Poor choices in social, political or economic
decisions
Natural selection such as location, population,
geography

Some different types of potential Hazards/threats to plan for:
Natural
Disasters
Mass
Casualty
Accidents
Technologic
Events
Human
Caused
Events
•Severe weather
•Hurricanes
•Tornadoes
•Fires
•Flooding
•Earthquakes
•Widespread lifethreatening
infectious
disease
outbreaks such
as influenza
•Mud Slides
•Bus or train
accidents
•Airplane
accidents
•Hostage events
•Natural
disasters
•Terrorist events
•Human Caused
events
•Utility and Power
failures
•Communication
failures
•IT failure
•Water supply
failures
•Critical resource
shortages
•Fuel shortages
•Urban fires
•Chemical spills
•Civil Disorder
•Industrial Plant
accidents
•Nuclear plant
malfunctions
causing radiation
release
•Transportation
accidents, such
as plane crash
or passenger
train derailment
Terrorist
Events
•CBRNE
(Biological,
Chemical,
Radiological,
Nuclear,
Explosive
Agents)
•Bomb threats
•Sabotage
•Armed
insurrection,
which threaten
life or property
•Hijacking
Process of evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms
of:
 probability & frequency of occurrence
 magnitude & severity
 exposure & consequences
 preparedness
Vulnerability equals hazard/threat probability,
plus severity minus prepared response, or
V = Pb + S - Pr

Consider each of the following when rating each
potential hazard/event based on the following criteria:
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Probability
Response time and scope
Human Impact
Property Impact
Business Impact
Preparedness
Internal Resources needed
External Resources needed
Who needs to be involved?









Safety Officer
Finance
Public Relations
Security
Risk Management
Infection Control
Administration
Plant Operations
Bio-med Engineering






Public Health
Department
Emergency Management
Police and Fire
EMS
Haz-Mat
LEPC




Experience
Local resources such as EMA, LEPC’s and
Public Health
Outside professional review
Self assessment including physical security,
human resources practices, identification
checks, technology and communications
Event
Score
MCI, NBCI, Bomb Threat, etc.
0(N/A); 1(Low); 2(Mod); 3(Hi)
Probability
Human Impact
Likelihood this will occur
Possible death or injury
Property Impact
Business Impact
Preparedness
Physical losses and damage
Interruption of services
Preplanning
Internal Response
External Response
Risk
Time, effectiveness, resources
Community/Mutual Aid
Risk = Probability * Severity
e-VAST HTVA Tool
If this is such a good approach why do we
always hear:
“but its never flooded here before” or
“we never thought this would happen”


January 4, 1493- Christopher Columbus
wrote: “mermaids rose high out of the
seas but they were not as beautiful as
they are represented”

We can blame our brain as optimism
lights up our amygdala and rostral
anterior cingulate cortex so we are
wired (theoretically) to accentuate the
positive and mute the negative

Which leads to missing events which
are rare, have extreme impact and are
retrospectively predictable (Taleb)





Many of our risk and hazard
evaluations follow the 4 M Fault Line
The Motive- An illusion of
understanding
The Myth-That the NNT is 1:1
The Magnitude-Predicting failure
The Management-arrogance of
competence
We need to recognize that there is a gap
between that risk we envision and that risk
which needs to be envisioned
 We need to fill in that gap by recognizing
there are unknown (to us) known's which if
known can identify risks and enhance
preparedness
 We must also include risk
reduction/mitigation in our HVA as a way of
eliminating disasters

Ask a black swan or
Create tools that
visualize risk.
Any situational
awareness
information
from any source
To use discussions
for information
sharing realizing
our communities
may not be the
first site to
impacted.
Crowd
sourcing as an
effective
surveillance
tool
 The Domino Response vs. Shots on Goal
 Silos of knowledge = Reductionism vs
Systems Thinking
 Biased advocacy depending on your
domain
 Managing our hypothesis instead of
planning for uncertainty