Transcript AQUACULTURE AND TRADE - International Centre for Trade and

Sustainable aquaculture trade
• Meeting on Fisheries,
Trade and Development
• Geneva
• 16 June 2010
• Dr. Audun Lem, FAO
1
Outline
• World fish supply and demand
–
–
–
–
utilization and consumption
trade
prices
distribution
• Rise of aquaculture
• Conclusions
2
WORLD FISH
SUPPLY
3
World fish production
Million t 2008
2009
2010e
Capture
90
90
90
2010/
2009
(0.1%)
Farmed
53
54
56
3.1%
Total
142
144
145
1.1%
4
World Fish Production
160
Millions of tonnes
140
120
Aquaculture
Catch
aquaculture
100
80
60
40
catch
20
0
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
FAO
5
Fish Utilization
160
140
120
100
Feed
80
60
40
Food uses
Other
FEED
FOOD
20
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
6
Per caput food supply (est)
Kg/year 2008
2009
2010
2010/09
Food
fish
17.1
17.1
17.1
0.2%
Capture
9.3
9.2
9.1
-1.3%
Farmed
7.8
7.9
8.1
1.9%
7
Fish in overall protein supply
8
World aquaculture production 19502010: strong growth but slowing
down
60
Millions of tonnes
Aquaculture
50
40
30
20
aquaculture
10
0
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
9
Aquaculture producers 2008
China
China
India
VietNam
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Japan
Chile
Norway
Rest
10
Global Aquaculture Production
70
China vs Rest of Asia
50
40
30
Production quantity
(tonne x 106)
Production quantity (tonne x 106)
60
Asia
60
China
40
20
0
1950
Rest of
Asia
1970
Year
1990
Asia
incl.
China
20
10
Rest of World
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
11
WORLD TRADE
12
World Fish Trade: Export Value
- in 1000 USD 120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
Developing countries
or areas
Developed countries
or areas
60,000,000
developing
40,000,000
developed
20,000,000
0
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
13
2009
WORLD FISH EXPORTS
USD 102.2 BILLION (2008)
• TRADE GROWING UNTIL ‘08
– + 9 % (2008/2007)
• 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS > USD 100
BILL for 1st time
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS
• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM
FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– USD 26 bill. (2008)
14
WORLD FISH EXPORTS
USD 94.5 BILLION (2009est)
• TRADE CRASHED IN 2009 (est 12 months)
– - 7.5 % values
– - 0.6 % volume (live weight conversion)
• est. 2009 EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION
• est. 2009 IMPORTS USD 98.6 BILLION
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– 2009: 51.7 % OF WORLD EXPORTS
15
Share of world fisheries production
destined to exports
Million tonnes (live weight)
160
140
120
100
Production
80
Export
60
40
20
0
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
16
Main fish exporters 2008 (value)
China
10%
Norway
6%
Thailand
6%
USA
5%
Viet Nam
4%
Chile
4%
EU (25)
26%
Canada
4%
Indonesia
2% Russia
2%
17
Main fish importers (2008)
•
•
•
•
Japan
US
EU
Total big 3
USD 14.5 bill.
USD 14.1 bill.
USD 45.0 bill.
USD 73.6 bill.
13.8 %
13.5 %
46.8 %
68.1 %
• Total world USD 108 bill.
100 %
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Main fish importers (2009/2008)
•
•
•
•
Japan
US
EU
Total big 3
USD 13.2 bill. - 9 %
USD 13.1 bill. - 7 %
USD 39.5 bill. -13 %
USD 65.8 bill. - 11 %
• Total world USD 98.5 bill.
-8.8%
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Fish market trends
• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008, decline in 2009
– high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput
– imports below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, will overtake Japan as # 1 country
– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• consumer confidence falling late 2008 and 2009
• 2010 turn-around
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market
– expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg
– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile
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Distribution
• 66 % of world imports by three markets
• within these markets: supermarkets represent 5085 % of retail sales
• concentration of sales whereas industry remains
fragmented
• tendency in developing countries: urbanization
• at the same time: seafood retail net margins
reportedly low compared to other food products
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Future ?
• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some
species (salmon, European bass/bream, turbot. Shrimp ?)
– focus on costs, economies of scale
– focus on marketing and distribution
– market and product segmentation
• Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing
• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:
–
–
–
–
standardized product, size
traceability
predictability
contracts on price and volumes
22
ISSUES OF IMPACT
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Global trend of outsourcing of both
production and processing
• Asia (China, Thailand, Viet Nam)
• but also
– Morocco (canning)
– Poland/Baltic countries (marinades, smoking)
• Growing share of production in developing
countries, esp. of aquaculture
– Europe, North America and Japan import farmed
products from Asia, South And Central America
24
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
160
140
China
100
80
60
World
excluding
China
40
20
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
0
1951
Million tonnes
120
Year
25
The next China: Viet Nam
• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters
– much of which is farmed: catfish, shrimp
– but a growing importer as well
• reprocessing
• domestic consumption
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Commodity prices
•
fish versus other food ?
27
Food prices, excl. fish
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And fish ?
Squid - In Italy, origin: South Africa
Seabass and Seabream - In Italy, origin: Greece
Squid - Who le,
FA S, size M
Seabass fresh who le 300-450 gr/pc
EUR/kg
EUR/kg
Seabream fresh who le 300-450 gr/pc
7.00
6.0
6.00
4 .5 0
5.00
4 .6 0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay
4 .3 5
Turbot - In Spain, origin: Spain
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Fresh - who le, cultured 0.5-1kg/pc
1-2 kg/pc
2-4 kg/pc
3-4 kg/pc
Fresh, gutted, head-o n, 3-5 kg/pc
EUR/kg
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
2.0
Jun-06
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
3.00
Jun-10
4.00
EUR/kg
5 .5 0
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
9 .9 5
9 .0 0
8 .6 0
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
8 .15
Jun-06
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-05
Jun-05
Feb-05
Oct-04
Jun-04
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
5.0
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19
94
19 01
95
19 -01
96
19 01
97
19 -01
98
19 01
99
20 -01
00
20 01
01
20 01
02
20 -01
03
20 01
04
20 -01
05
20 01
06
20 -01
07
20 01
08
20 -01
09
-0
1
The FAO Fish price index;
(1998-2000 = 100)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
FAO total fish price index
Capture total
Aquaculture Total
40
20
0
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FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising
– because of population growth
– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY
– capture: stable, not increasing
– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth
– unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements
• PRICE IMPACT ?
– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much
– price cycles in commodity markets
– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing
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AQUACULTURE FUTURE
• fastest growing food producing sector in the world
• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish
• 53 million tons of fish produced worth USD 98
billion (2008)
• Given the projected population growth, an
additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed
by 2030 to maintain current per caput
consumption.
32
Sustainable trade
• Trade in fish is governed by WTO trade
rules (NAMA)
• Sustainability issues:
– how to ensure sustainable production ?
– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture
development ?
– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture trade ?
33
Aquaculture development
• many countries prioritize an export driven aquaculture
development
– export markets, economic activities
• but other elements are essential as well
– social issues
– environmental issues
• for long-term sustainable growth, all three elements must
be included
– an ecosystem based development
• NB: Aquaculture development is also a societal choice
34
FAO Guidelines
• Responsible fish trade. FAO Technical
Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 11.
Rome, FAO. 2009
• Draft guidelines: The ecosystem approach to
aquaculture (EAA)
• Draft guidelines for Aquaculture certification
– on agenda for COFI-AQ in September 2010
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CONCLUSIONS
•
Fish has always been a globalized commodity
– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities
•
•
•
•
•
Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 47% share in
2009 in food fish
Fish trade trend is positive: USD 100 billion in 2008, but drop in 2009
New growth in trade in 2010
Fish trade: big 3 import 66 % but in decline
Outsourcing of production and processing
– Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia
– Future: India ?
•
Aquaculture will determine overall future supply
– the ecosystem approach to aquaculture focuses on the environmental context
including the rights of stakeholders
– sustainable aquaculture development must build on inclusion of economic, social
and environmental criteria
36
THANK YOU
37