Transcript The Evolution of Deterrence

The Evolution of Deterrence
The Eisenhower Years
Eisenhower elected in 1952
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Concerned about the large
increases in defense
spending in the last years of
the Truman administration.
But also worried about
Communist expansionism.
The “New Look”
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Limit defense spending.
To contain Communism:
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Rely upon U.S. nuclear arsenal.
For proxy wars involving allies, assist with air
and sea forces.
Expressed in NSC-162/2 (October 1953)
Secretary of State:
John Foster Dulles
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In January 1954, gives a
speech stating
administration’s decision:
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“to depend primarily upon a
great capacity to retaliate,
instantly, by means and at
places of our choosing.”
Sparks creation of the term
“Massive Retaliation.”
Means of “retaliation”
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Initially, Strategic Air Command
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B-52 Stratofortress enters service, 1955
The Missile Age
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Sputnik launched
October 4, 1957
U.S. military branches
had already been
pursuing strategic
missile programs.
U.S. Strategic Missile Programs
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Atlas (ICBM, USAF)
Titan (ICBM, USAF)
Thor (IRBM, USAF)
Snark (cruise missile,
USAF)
Jupiter (IRBM, Army)
Polaris (IRBM/FBM,
USN)
Nuclear submarines
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First: U.S.S. Nautilus (1955)
First ballistic missile
submarine: U.S.S. George
Washington (1960)
Criticisms of the New Look and
Nuclear Deterrence
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For a crisis elsewhere in the world, how
credible was an American threat of heavy
retaliation when the U.S.S.R. had the
capacity to inflict massive damage on the
U.S. itself?
What if the Soviet Union launched a preemptive strike at the U.S. strategic nuclear
arsenal?
Problems assessing Soviet capabilities
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By mid-1950’s Soviet internal security
blocks sources of human intelligence.
Other attempts to obtain intelligence:
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National Security Agency (NSA) formed in
1952 to listen to radio traffic.
CIA – wiretapping phones
Radar stations established around periphery
of U.S.S.R.
U-2 overflights
Lack of knowledge enhances fear
of U.S. vulnerability
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“bomber gap” debate: 1954-56
Sputnik launch, 1957
“missile gap” issue at end of Eisenhower
administration
Civilians shape deterrence policy
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Gaither Committee (report: November 1957)
RAND Corporation
Prominent theorists:
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Bernard Brodie
Herman Kahn
William Kaufman
Henry Kissinger
Thomas Schelling
Albert Wohlstetter
The Problem of Pre-emption
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If a pre-emptive strike could destroy a
nation’s nuclear arsenal, that arsenal may
not deter war, but could actually
encourage an attack.
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Could create an unstable political environment
where a crisis could encourage such a strike.
Nuclear Deterrence:
A short lexicon
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First strike (one that attempts destroy
enemy’s weapons)
Second strike (one that can survive a first
strike and retaliate)
Counterforce (strike on military targets)
Countervalue (strike on civilian targets)
Other aspects of Eisenhower
administration security policy
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Alliances
Arms talks
Economic and military aid, and covert
actions, to defeat communist insurgencies.
NATO & the Federal Republic of
Germany (West Germany)
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First formed in 1949.
“Fully sovereign” in 1955.
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Acquired full control over its domestic and foreign
policy.
Formed the Bundeswehr, would grow to 12
divisions (500,00 men) and become integrated
into NATO.
Would only arm with nuclear weapons if order to
by NATO.
NATO & Nuclear Weapons
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1954: Adopts “New Look” approach of
relying more on nuclear arms in place of
larger conventional forces.
Initial assumption that tactical nuclear
devices could be used to defend against a
Soviet invasion.
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Thousands of such weapons deployed to
Europe in 1950’s
Nukes & European expectations
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U.S. emphasis on nuclear arsenal to deter
war with U.S.S.R. made nuclear weapons
a symbol of American commitment to
defend Europe.
Implications?
Asia
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U.S. signs bilateral pacts with South Korea
(1953) and Taiwan (1955).
Gets Japan to maintain a minimal defense
force – but it won’t accept nuclear arms.
Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO)
formed, 1954:
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Initial members: U.S., U.K., France, Philippines,
New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand.
Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam added
shortly thereafter.
The problems with allies
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Small-scale conflict
between Nationalist
and Communist
Chinese, 1953-54 and
1958.
Ongoing border
incidents along
Korean DMZ.
Indochina
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French suffer large
defeat at Dien Bien
Phu, 1954.
U.S. gets France to negotiate with
Viet Minh
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Vietnam divided at
17th parallel
The Middle East
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The Baghdad Pact, 1955
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U.S. pressures U.K., Iran , Iraq, Pakistan &
Turkey to form alliance.
Effort to deter Soviet pressure in the oil-rich
region, which was unstable given the waning
of British influence.
Later, U.S. joins alliance; becomes known as
the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in
1959.
More problems with allies
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The Suez Crisis (1956-57)
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President Gamal Abdel Nasser orders
nationalization of Suez Canal.
Israel, Great Britain & France invade, occupy
Canal Zone and Sinai.
U.S. pressures and occupying countries to
withdraw.
The Eisenhower Doctrine, 1957
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President pledges U.S. assistance to any
Middle Eastern country threatened by
aggression from any state “controlled by
international communism.”
Does not prevent continuing problems in
region, 1957-58:
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Iraq: coup deposed monarchy, new regime
leaves Pact.
Jordan: monarchy threatened
Lebanon: sank into civil war.
Latin America
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Cuba: Batista regime
collapses in 1959,
Fidel Castro comes to
power.
Communist
movements active in
Columbia and
Venezuela.
How effective was the
New Look?