Transcript 道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选(第57期)

总第057期 2011年9月
DOWJONES EDUCATION
道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选
China’s growth and prices puzzle
中国“滞胀”了？
China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent
combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still
rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular
reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service
sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record
low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a
marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating
contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise
concern.
严格说来，中国的情况并不符合“滞胀”的经典定义：通胀高企，经济
增长不振，两者长期结合存在。但是，价格在7月份仍有上涨，而经济增
长即便说仍算得上坚挺，其势头似乎也在减弱。汇丰(HSBC)/Markit周
一发表的报告显示，8月份中国服务业采购经理指数(PMI)降至50.6这一
调查历史最低值。这个水平说明业务活动充其量仅出现微弱扩张。在中
国物流与采购联合会编制的13个官方PMI数据系列中，有6个已降至50以
下，说明业务活动出现收缩。即便当今世界对欧洲的危机念念不忘，这
也应当引发忧虑。
China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month
this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio
or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic
traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an
extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But
headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not
allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per
cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading,
to be reported this Friday.
The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in
the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off
import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the
dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are
obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese
Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is
the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a
reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices
has rarely seemed so complex.
中国的政策制定者们进退两难。值得注意的是，8月是今年首个中国官方
既没有上调银行存款准备金率又没有上调利率的月份。随着美欧再一次
竭力保持经济增长，中共中央政治局内部某些派别希望像西方一样，在
较长时间内暂停收紧货币政策，或者甚至稍微放松一下政策。但是，在
中国具有政治敏感性的整体消费价格指数(CPI)不容许这么做。7月的
CPI几乎没有变化，仍保持在6.5%的三年高位。中国媒体报道暗示，定
于本周五报告的8月CPI将不会有太大变化。
好消息是，就算没有其它手段管用的话，基数效应也将在未来几个月帮
助遏制CPI。人民币汇率上升也有利于缓解进口价格上涨的影响：8月份
，人民币兑美元汇率出现10%的年化上涨，这是自去年9月以来的最大涨
幅。但就目前而言，紧张形势仍一目了然。中国总理温家宝上周在中共
政策刊物《求是》撰文重申，稳定物价总水平仍然是宏观调控的“首要
任务”。温家宝同时称，经济增速放缓的各种迹象“处在合理水平”。
这话也许没错。但是，在创造就业与稳定价格之间寻找平衡的任务，看
上去很少像现在这样复杂。
如需更多精彩内容或订阅,请登陆:uni.xinhuaonline.com
联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路8号尚都国际502室（ 100020） 联系电话：010-58700900
总第057期 2011年9月
DOWJONES EDUCATION
道琼斯全球资讯数据库精选
The careerist: Summer school MBAs at work
一个MBA学生的事业心
I grew up in Beijing and left when I was 16 to go to high school in the US. After
that, I went to Harvard and studied applied maths and economics and became
very interested in international development. At first it was an academic interest
and I was going to do a PhD, but I decided academia wasn’t for me. So I went to
work for McKinsey for three years and did a lot of work in developing countries,
with governments, NGOs and companies that were thinking of getting into new
markets. There was a lot of focus on health, which was an area that really
interested me.
我在北京长大，16岁离乡前往美国读高中。之后，我考上了哈佛大学
(Harvard)，攻读应用数学与经济学专业，并变得对国际发展产生了
浓厚的兴趣。起初这只是一种学术兴趣，我打算念到博士，但我后
来打定了主意，认为自己不适合做学术，于是我进了麦肯锡
(McKinsey)，在那里工作了3年。期间我在发展中国家做了许多工作
，与政府机构、非盈利组织和希望打入新市场的企业合作。这些工
作中的一大侧重点是医疗卫生，而这是一个真正让我感兴趣的领域
。
McKinsey was a really good chance to experience a lot in a short period of time
but it was never where I was going to pursue a career, so I went back to school.
I’m now doing a three-year degree which is an MBA at Stanford and an MPA/ID
(public administration and international development) at Harvard Kennedy
school of government.
In the summers I’ve been building up my experience on the ground by doing small
consulting projects. Last summer, I was in Bangladesh working for a for-profit
social enterprise. We partnered with Brac, a non-profit organisation, and a
created a mobile technology for health workers who were looking after pregnant
women in rural areas. From this I learnt that I wanted to create customised
solutions for social enterprises.I also decided to spend a month in China because I
wanted to answer the question, “If I came back to China what would it be like to
do social impact work?” It makes sense for me as it’s easier to make the most
difference where the cultural difference is the least. So I’m meeting leading impact
investors in China – people and organisations that are doing groundbreaking
work. It’s very inspiring and I’m getting a lot of energy from them. From a
distance you’d think the social sector in China is very undeveloped and very
bureaucratic – but, partly because it is so small, there are a lot of opportunities.
For me, the past four weeks have corrected some of my preconceived notions.
在麦肯锡工作，确实能让人在短时间内积累丰富经验，但这里从来不是我
想发展事业的地方，所以我又回到了校园。目前我正在攻读一个3年
制的学位，是斯坦福大学(Stanford)工商管理硕士(MBA)和哈佛肯尼
迪政府学院(Kennedy school of government)公共管理与国际发展硕
士(MPA/ID)二者的结合。
每年夏季，我都会通过开展小型咨询项目，积累实践经验。去年夏天，我
在孟加拉，为一家盈利性公益企业工作。我们和非盈利组织Brac合
作，开发了一项移动技术，供在农村地区护理孕妇的医疗工作者使
用。我从中体悟到，自己今后想要为社会性企业打造量身定制的方
案。此外，我决定在中国呆一个月，因为我想找到以下问题的答案
：“如果我回到国内从事公益工作，结果会怎样呢？”这一点对我
来说很重要，因为在文化差异最小的地方，比较容易发挥出最大的
作用。于是，我见到了国内许多领先的公益投资者——他们是从事
开创性工作的个人和机构。结果非常鼓舞人心，他们大大激起了我
的干劲。在千里之外，你会以为中国的公益事业极其落后，极其官
僚。但是，一定程度上正是因为规模小，所以机会众多。对我来说
，过去4周已经纠正了我一些先入为主的看法。
I’m based in Beijing and I’m very interested in the migrant communities in China.
They really have been the engines of growth, but there’s no social safety net,
especially in health and that’s what I’m focusing on right now. I’m also
researching a couple of ideas for non-profits and social ventures using the models
I’ve seen in Bangladesh and India. When I graduate I want to work in this field. It
could be anywhere, but there are a lot of opportunities in China.
我目前以北京为据点，我对中国的流动人口非常感兴趣。他们确实是中国
经济增长的引擎，但是他们没有社会保障网络，特别是在医疗方面
，而这正是我目前专注的领域。我也在思考把我在孟加拉和印度看
到的模型，应用到中国的非盈利组织和社会性企业。我希望毕业后
能够从事这个领域的工作。可能是在任何一个地方，不过在中国会
如需更多精彩内容或订阅,请登陆:uni.xinhuaonline.com
有很多机会。
联系方式：北京朝阳区东大桥路8号尚都国际502室（ 100020） 联系电话：010-58700900