Transcript INTERTANKO Seminar
INTERTANKO
Seminar
8 th April 2011
INTERTANKO Seminar
Schedule
Friday 8
th
April 2011
0930 Welcome and introduction INTERTANKO Overview Vetting and Benchmarking Piracy Environmental Issues Regional Issues INTERTANKO Work Plan Open discussion on all issues 1200-1300 Lunch
Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement
INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws which the United States, the European Union and many nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free enterprise system, promote competition and protect the public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in compliance with its Anti trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
Tanker Market Overview
The state of the Tanker Industry • Uncertainty, fundamentals still strong but high oil price a threat • Slack in supply of tankers – slow steaming (ballast) – Lowering of C/P speed – Suez Canal less used – Piracy effect – longer routes/inefficiency • Reduced Libyan export, increased Middle East export
Tanker Market World GDP and oil demand change -1 -3 3 1 % 11 9 7 5 GDP growth - IMF Oil demand growth - IEA Tonne miles growth - Fearnleys Oil/tanker demand correlates with Economic growth Positive growth projected – but there is still uncertainty Because the extra barrel is taken from the Middle east, tonne-miles growth is stronger Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys
$ per barrel 100 80 20 0 60 40 Tanker Market Oil price and freight rates 1970-2011 Nominal price Arab Light Real price Arab Light Nominal freight rate AG-West Real freight rate AG-West Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (USD) CPI* index 1982-84=100
160 m $ Tanker Market VLCC newbuilding prices and break even rates $/day 45,000 29 140 Break even rate Newbuilding prices 41,000 18 120 Source: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor 31 37,000 29 41 54 55 70?
100 33,000 215 VLCCs 80 29,000 60 25,000 Based on LRFairplay
Tanker Market
a fragmented industry
VLCCs 550 Some 140 owners NITC NYK Mitsui Nordic American Suezmaxes 420 Some 110 owners Euronav Teekay AET Aframaxes 890 Some 230 owners Teekay Sovco/Novos 0 17 17 10 28 32 37 40 60 58 20 43 30 7% 10% 7% 40 50 60 Based on LRFairplay
bn tonne-miles 3.0
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
-1.4
-1.8
-2.2
-2.6
Tanker Demand Increase in world oil demand * *Rest of world *Middle East USA China World Based on Fearnleys
Tanker Demand Tanker trade bn tonne-miles 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1970s Based on Fearnleys
38% +36 %
1980s
+20 %
1990s EST00s
mbd 24 Tanker Demand Seaborne Oil Trade and Middle East Oil production 000 bn tonne-miles 13,000 21 18 15 12 9 Based on Fearnleys/IEA 11,200 Middle East Oil Prod mbd 9,400
Tonne miles
7,600 •Asia 80% dependent on Middle East, Europe 18% and US 17% some 15 mbd crude oil through Hormuz 2010 5,800 4,000
38 mbd in 2010 Others 48% Tanker Demand Crude oil seaborne trade Saudi Arabia 15% North Africa 12% Other Persian Gulf 25% 3057 bn tonne miles in 2010 Others 50% Saudi Arabia 18% Other Persian Gulf 27% North Africa 5%
Tanker Demand Oil balance: production - consumption mbd 20
Middle East
15 10
FSU Africa
5
SC America
0
China
-5
N America Europe
-10 -15
Asia - Pacific ex China
Oil surplus areas i.e.
exporting areas Oil deficit areas i.e.
importing areas Source: INTERTANKO / IEA
Tanker Demand Middle East Oil production Jan - 2000 to Feb - 2011 mbd 24 23 22 Source: IEA 24 Nov 2011 $92,000/ day Mid Jan 2003 $91,000/ day End April 2004 $61,600/day 20 July 2006 $87,000/day Primo July 2008 $181,600/day End Feb 2011 $14,000/ day Primo Jan 2007 $27,000/day 21 20 Primo Sept 2009 $5,000/ day 19 8 July 2003 VLCC AG Japan $14,000/day Primo July 2003 VLCC AG-Japan $7,000/day 18 Based on Fearnleys/IEA
Tanker Demand Trade movements mbd 60,000 US Europe Japan Rest of World 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Rest of world 26% Rest of world 47% Based on BP
m dwt 545 491
Assumed max phase out, orderbook March 2009, include
437
chemical tankers
383 329 275 Tanker Supply Tanker fleet development dwt Number number 6,400 5,780 5,160 4,540 3,920 3,300 Tanker fleet increase 2003-2013 some 75%
m dwt Tanker Supply Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers 10,000 dwt + balance assuming various demand increases 95 75 Assumed market balance end 2008 55 35 15 Max phase out Deletions Delveries Surplus zero trade grow th Surplus 2.5% trade grow th Surplus 4% trade grow th Surplus 6% trade grow th Minus 2% growth in 2009 and the above scenarios later -5 -25 -02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Assumed removal of double hull tankers year
Conclusions Oil demand, tonne-mile, and tanker fleet indices 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 155 150 145 140 135 130 Oil demand index Tonne miles crude tanker index Tanker fleet index Source: IEA, Fearnleys, INTERTANKO Tanker fleet increase 2002-2010: 46%
Conclusions • Despite disruptions, fundamentals still strong, but …. • The dust has not settled neither from the financial crises nor the Japanese earthquake/tsunami, and the Arab insurgency continuous • Tanker deliveries high next two years and the fleet is young
Conclusions Strategic tanker consideration • China expected drive demand and the Middle East has the reserves • Successful Green House Gas reduction will mean reduced oil consumption • Market balance set to weaken the next couple of years • Costs reduction needs carful risk management
Years 16 Conclusions Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt 14 12 10 8 6 Based on LRFairplay
Vetting Issues Update
Smart Vetting 1
•
Vetting Committee objectives & updates:
–
The One Stop Shop Concept / Terminal Acceptance:
We have raised the concept of formation of a common marine assurance “system” (not methodology), which would be accessible and useable by each party concerned in the screening process.
–
Advising of Non Acceptance:
We have raised the issue regarding provision of information to owners to enable them to address what may be identified as outstanding in a prompt manner.
–
Conditions of Class: -
Transparency to report or not to report? Major survey of members 53% response validating concerns (submitted to OCIMF GPC discussions)
Smart Vetting 2
•
Vetting Committee objectives & updates:
–
Reward Systems to Reduce Inspections:
Exploration of establishing further reward systems to benefit good owners.
–
Linking TMSA and the VIQ:
Gap analysis undertaken by the vetting committee: Potential benefits from linking TMSA with the VIQ could result in a further shift to more self assessment. –
SIRE/CDI HVIQ:
We have requested SIRE to re-assess the possibilities of harmonising the SIRE & CDI VIQ into a harmonised VIQ.
Smart Vetting 3
•
Vetting Committee objectives & updates:
–
Officer Matrix Requirements:
SIRE and CDI have advised that they are planning to seek information from owners regarding officer training systems in their respective forthcoming revised VIQ’s –
Port State Use of SIRE & CDI reports:
We are reviewing the development of systems to increase the current low usage of SIRE and CDI reports by the Port State Control Authorities (Reduce the number of inspections and better target sub-standard ship)
Smart Vetting 4
•
Vetting Committee objectives & updates:
–
INTERTANKO Guide for Engaging Independent Ship Inspectors:
Raised with SIRE: Potential for greater usage of standard set of guidelines when engaging independent ship inspectors –
Reporting to Oil/Chemical Companies:
We have investigated and provided information to members regarding advice pertaining to “discoverability” in association with reporting incidents to oil and chemical companies and we are in discussion with OCIMF on this subject
INTERTANKO Benchmarking and Databases
Terminal Vetting Database (TVD)
Quick recap...
What
• Terminal Vetting – Tankers are vetted but are sometimes asked to make fast to poor quality berths – The vetting process works for ships, so why not for terminals?
• • •
Why
enhance safety at the terminals improve member efficiency by influencing terminals to ‘fix’ problems maintain industry safety record
Who
• Access to the system is controlled by INTERTANKO and
was
INTERTANKO Members and Associate Members • As of 2010, access granted to all interested parties strictly limited to • The Terminal Vetting Database is hosted by www.Q88.com
INTERTANKO • Access is usually set up within one business day in partnership with
Terminal Vetting Database (TVD) – latest statistics
Stats for past 12 months:
# reports submitted: 3843 # berths covered: 1792 # reports with low rating: 350 • • • • • • • • • • • • Question containing low ratings: Condition Apron/Fenders/Dock Accessibility/Communication English Skills Safety Awareness Bollard condition Tug Performance/Condition Condition Chicksans/Hose Dock Lighting Pre-transfer Conference Emergency Preparedness Courtesy Surveyor Safety Awareness 42 40 37 31 29 82 76 67 60 59 44 42
TMSA related
•
TMSA 2 Gap Analysis Document
http://www.intertanko.com/templates/intertanko/issue.aspx?id=44647 •
TMSA 2 Benchmarking database
http://www.intertanko.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=46718 •
Guidance on Change management
http://www.intertanko.com/templates/intertanko/issue.aspx?id=41452
Lost Time Frequency 16 6 4 2 0 14 12 10 8 Entries LTIF Pool Average: 1.39 Entries below pool average: (65%)
TMSA LTIF AND TRCF
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 T. Rec. Case Frequency Entries TRCF Pool Average: 3.23 Entries below pool average: (68%)
TMSA CREW & OFFICER RETENTION
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Crew Retention Rate (Average 93.6%)
Entries
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Officer Retention Rate (Average 91.3%)
Entries
VIQ Benchmarking
• Traffic Light System, incorporating either Red or Green, to indicate if the number of SIRE VIQ observations for your fleet are either above or below the number of SIRE VIQ observations for the collective of the INTERTANKO fleet.
Red = above INTERTANKO fleet average Green = below INTERTANKO fleet average • Fleet Average Deficiency:
"Total number of deficiencies per SIRE VIQ chapter, divided by Total number of inspections“
• 12 month rolling period • Confidential http://www.intertanko.com/templates/intertanko/issue.aspx?id=4 7207
VIQ Benchmarking
(example output data)
SIRE Chapters Certification & Documentation Crew management Navigation Safety Management Pollution Prevention Structural Condition Cargo & Ballast System Petroleum Cargo & Ballast System Chemical Cargo & Ballast System Gas Mooring Communications Engine & Steering Compartments General Appearance & Condition Petroleum Chemical
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Gas
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Intertanko Fleet Petroleum Average Intertanko Fleet Chemical Average Intertanko Fleet Gas Average
0.62
0.33
0.8
1.49
0.68
0.06
1.03
0.78
0.14
0 0 1.05
0.44
0.5
0.3
0.56
1.23
0.67
0.17
0 0.71
0 0.56
0.24
1.05
0.51
0 0.84
0.41
0.29
0.88
0.36
0.27
0.43
0.84
0.91
0.44
0.25
0
Confidential Accident Reporting Platform
CARP database provides a simple functionality allowing the quick & easy updating of accident data. Enable members to input their own incident data in a fully confidential basis whilst allowing INTERTANKO to use the information entered so that: • Lessons can be learned and shared.
• Similar accidents prevented.
• Standardise accident data and categorisation.
• Standardise simple accident analysis, root cause, direct cause and corrective actions.
Platform Now Available http://www.intertanko.com/templates/Page.aspx?id=47899
VIFF and PSCIFF • “Vetting Inspection Feedback Forms” (VIFF)
– meets
SIRE Inspector Compliance Requirements
–
Launched May 2010
• “PSC Inspection Feedback Form” (PSCIFF)
– meets
IMO PSCO code of conduct guidelines
–
Launched October 2010
Both provide a means of confidential feedback to INTERTANKO which can then be shared, confidentially, with SIRE or relevant Port State MoU
Environmental Issues
Environmental Issues
1.
2.
3.
• • GHGs - Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan Mandatory application after MEPC 62 (July 2011) Charterers already referencing SEEMP (IMT MESQAC) • Biofouling Voluntary Guidelines to be adopted MEPC 62 • Ballast Water Management ...!!
Environmental Issues Ballast Water Management • • • •
IMO BWM Convention
The BWM Convention will enter into force 12 months after ratification by 30 States, representing 35 per cent of world merchant shipping tonnage. As at
2 March 2010: 21 countries representing 22.63%
of world merchant shipping tonnage Slowing of ratification, but...
Implementation dates still important due to retroactive application
Environmental Issues Ballast Water Treatment IMO BWM Convention Summary of implementation dates:
Ship constructed before 2009
BW capacity 1500-5000m3 – have treatment system from first intermediate or renewal survey after anniversary date in 2014 BW capacity less than 1500m3 and greater than 5000m3 – have to have treatment system from first intermediate or renewal survey after anniversary date in 2016
Ship constructed in or after 2009
BW capacity less than 5000m3 shall have a treatment system installed at its second annual survey and no later than 31/12/2011
Ship constructed after 2009 but before 2012
and with a BW capacity greater than 5000m3 shall have a treatment system from first intermediate or renewal survey after anniversary date in 2016
Ship constructed in or after 2012
with a BW capacity of greater than 5000m3 shall be constructed with a BW treatment system
Environmental Issues Ballast Water Treatment
Concern expressed over treatment systems to meet 2012 deadline INTERTANKO Environmental Committee & ISTEC need to find solutions to assist members and seek evidence that systems will work in practice
Environmental Issues Ballast Water Treatment IMO BWM Convention • States continue to implement IMO Convention, e.g. Norway • Other States seek to go beyond IMO Convention, e.g. USA • Implementation issues arising: Ballast Water Record Book format • IMO list of Guidelines continues to be important but overlooked by operators:
Guidelines for Ballast Water Sampling Guidelines for Ballast Water Management and Development of Ballast Water Management Plans Guidelines for Ballast Water Exchange Guidelines for Ballast Water Exchange Design and Construction Standards Guidelines for Sediment Control on Ships
Regional Issues
Regional Issues China Oil Pollution Regulations Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Ship-Induced Pollution of the Marine Environment • Latest requirements effective 1 st February 2011 • Relating to discharge of ship and cargo generated wastes as well as the use of port reception facilities – Compulsory Discharge (as per European Directive – no exemption?) – Pollutant receiving certificate required before ship is allowed to clear port – Administration:
Regional Issues China Oil Pollution Regulations Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Ship-Induced Pollution of the Marine Environment • Administration: Prior to Waste Discharge After Waste Discharge PRF / Ship Agreement PRF provides Ship with PRD – signed by Master PRF Obtain Permit of Operation from MSA Ship applies MSA PRC using PRD • For International vessels, all waste to be discharged prior to port clearance and PRC from MSA shown to port authority
Regional Issues China Oil Pollution Regulations Regulations on the Prevention and Control of Ship-Induced Pollution of the Marine Environment • • • • INTERTANKO Observations and Queries Does the ship operator have to gain a Pollution Receiving Certificate each time the ship leaves port or on a periodic basis (annually)?
Does the contract have to be with one reception facility (contractor) or can it be more than one?
What are the limits of fees?
Is there a threshold at which compulsory discharge does not apply? e.g. if waste quantities minimal as per EU Directive?
Regional Issues Japan Earthquake and Tsunami • • – – – – Precautions for vessels trading into Japan ports?
Information gathering on radiation levels Crew protection and precautions? Equipment required?
Ship/port interface?
– – Inspections and analysis by ports after vessel has traded to a Japanese port?
Which ports?
What level of radiation is being deemed abnormal?
thank you For more information please visit www.intertanko.com