Transcript Demographic Change and the Workplace
Demographic Change and the Workplace
Demography is Destiny, Open Classroom Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs February 3, 2011 Robert K. Triest Vice President and Economist, Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Note: opinions are my own and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
Demographic change occurs slowly
• “Demography as destiny.” • 2001 Boston Fed conference: – Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change – (available at www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf46/) • Contrast with business cycle data: – Even current quarter GDP is hard to predict!
Prof. Bluestone used TV shows as examples of changes in U.S. family structure.
– Leave it to Beaver -to- Modern Family
• Changes in U.S. workplaces as reflected on TV: – The Flintstones – -to The Office
The U.S. workforce has become: • More diverse – Dramatic increase in representation of women – Increased share of minority groups – Increased share of immigrants • Better educated – Increased rates of high school and college graduation.
• Older – Increase in average age and a flattening of the age structure
Female labor force participation has increased while male participation has decreased
SA, % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1948
Labor Force Participation Rate: 16 Years & Over
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
Men Women Total
1998 2003 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Youth labor force participation has recently been trending downwards SA, % 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1948 1953
Labor Force Participation Rate: 16 - 19 Years
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Men Women Total
2003 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Convergence between genders in middle age participation rates
SA, % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1948
Labor Force Participation Rate: 45 - 54 Years
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973
Men Women Total
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
…with convergence continuing as retirement approaches.
NSA, % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1948
Labor Force Participation Rate: 55 to 64 Years
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Men Women Total
2003 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 20 15 10 5 0 NSA, % 40 35 30
Participation rates for 65-69 year olds are low but increasing
.
Labor Force Participation Rate: 65 - 69 Years Men Women Total
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
…as is true of 70-74 year olds.
NSA, % 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1987
Labor Force Participation Rate: 70 - 74 Years
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2005
Men Women Total
2008
High school graduation rates have increased dramatically over time.
% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Percent of Population with a High School Diploma or Higher 1960 1980 2000
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
Age
55-59 60-64 65-69 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population.
70-74 75+
College graduation has also become more common over time.
10 5 0 % 35 30 25 20 15
Percent of Population with a B.A. or Higher 1960 1980
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
Age
55-59 60-64 65-69 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population.
70-74
2000
75+
30 years ago, college graduation was more common among men than among women
.
% 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Percent of Population with a B.A. or Higher, 1980 Men Women
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
Age
55-59 60-64 65-69 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population.
70-74 75+
Among young cohorts, college graduation is more common among women.
20 15 10 5 % 40 35 30 25 0
Percent of Population with a B.A. or Higher, 2009 Men Women
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
Age
55-59 60-64 65-69 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census of Population.
70-74 75+
Management education was formerly male dominated.
Source: Claudia Goldin, “From the Valley to the Summit,”
Regional Review
, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Q1 2005
The share of women in many professional programs has increased dramatically.
Source: Claudia Goldin, “From the Valley to the Summit,”
Regional Review
, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Q1 2005
Increased educational attainment is associated with:
• Increased earnings.
• Decreased unemployment rate.
• Increased labor force participation rate.
Median Earnings of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Ages 25–34, by Gender and Education Level, 1971–2008 (in Constant 2008 Dollars) Sources: The College Board,
Education Pays 2010
, Figure 1.6; National Center for Education Statistics, 2004; U.S. Census Bureau, 2003 –2009; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010g; calculations by the authors.
Slide from The College Board, “Education Pays 2010”
16
Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment 25+ Years (SA, %) No high school diploma High school grads Some college College grads +
12 8 4 0 95
Sources: BLS /Haver
00 05 8 4 10 0 16 12
82.5
75.0
67.5
Labor Force Participation Rate by Educational Attainment 25+ Years (SA, %) No high school diploma High school grads Some college College grads +
60.0
52.5
45.0
37.5
95
Sources: BLS /Haver
00 05 82.5
75.0
67.5
60.0
52.5
45.0
10 37.5
The labor force is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.
1988
Other 3%
2018
Asian 3% Hispanic, non Black 7% Black 11% White, non Hispanic 79% Black 12% Asian 6% Hispanic, non Black 15% White, non Hispanic 64% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The U.S. has entered an era of slow labor force growth.
3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Labor Force Growth Rate (16 years and over) Population Growth Rate (15 to 64 years)
2030s 2040s Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau
Changes in the age distribution
• Reduced labor force growth may produce a general shortage of workers.
– But the reduction in birth rates has also produced a flattening of the wage structure.
– Will there be a surplus of older individuals who would like to continue working?
Changes in the age distribution
• The flattening of the wage structure has reduced the economic return to labor market experience.
– Research from “Population Aging, Labor Demand, and the Structure of Wages,” joint work with Margarita Sapozhnikov.