Transcript Offshore Wind Accelerator

Carbon Trust’s Offshore
Wind Accelerator
Driving down the cost of offshore wind
Phil de Villiers
Offshore Wind Accelerator Manager
Our mission
is to accelerate
the move to
a low carbon
economy
We cut carbon now by
Providing specialist advice and finance to
help organisations cut carbon
Setting standards for carbon reduction
We cut future carbon emissions by
Opening markets for low carbon technologies
Leading industry collaborations to
commercialise technologies
Investing in early stage low carbon
companies
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In 2008 Carbon Trust assessed
barriers to offshore wind
Offshore wind power: Big challenge, big opportunity
Focus of assessment
– What is required to deliver
offshore wind in the UK?
– What does UK Government and
industry need to do?
Note: Report is available on our website: www.carbontrust.co.uk
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UK faces an energy gap and
tough renewable energy target
This requires mass deployment of offshore wind
Installed capacity, projected
…
demand (GW), 2008-2020
% of UK energy from
renewables, 2005-2020
15%
90
80
70
Energy gap
60
50
Projected
peak demand
8x increase
required
Renewables
Nuclear
40
30
Gas
20
2%
10
Coal
1%
0
2008
2010
2015
2020
Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2008 (based on DECC Energy Model)
2005
2010
2020
target
Increased RD&D critical for
delivering cost reduction
Weak commercial
returns, high levels
of public subsidy
£75bn
Stronger commercial
returns, lower levels
of public subsidy
£16bn
£14bn
£45bn
Requires major
RD&D
programme, of
which OWA is
one component
Current
expectation
Optimal site
availability
Cost
reductions
Source: Carbon Trust “Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity”, 2008
Achievable
goal
5
Costs must be reduced
Otherwise projects cancelled, UK renewable targets missed
Cost per MW installed (€m/MW)
3.5
3.0
2.5
Drivers
• Rising commodity prices
• Bottlenecks in supply chain
• Complexity of sites, distance, depth
• FX rate volatility
2.0
Robin Rigg
Burbo
North Hoyle
Rhyl Flats
Gunfleet Sands
Lynn
Kentish Flats
1.5
Scroby Sands
1.0
Barrow
0.5
0.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Year
2010
6
Source: Emerging Energy Research, 2009
Offshore Wind Accelerator
Objective: Reduce cost of energy by 10% through RD&D
8 developers + Carbon Trust
Focusing on technologies for
– Round 2 extensions
– Round 3
– Scottish Territorial Waters
Total budget ~£40m
– £10m for collaborative R&D
– Up to £30m for demonstrations
– Carbon Trust funds 1/3
Commitment to 2014
– Started October 2008
Offshore Wind Accelerator
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OWA objectives
Requires very targeted RD&D
Focus on commercial outcomes
– Reduce cost of energy by 10%
– Deliver innovations in time for Round 3 (~2015)
Learn from the capabilities and experiences of each member
– Offshore wind, oil and gas, onshore wind
Encourage the best designers to deliver innovations
– Engage them on very specific challenges
– Let them keep their IP
– Look internationally, not just to UK
– Engage with other industries for technology transfer
Operate responsively to member needs; manage costs effectively
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OWA is an example of marketpull innovation
Two approaches to innovation
Innovators
Technology
push
Market
pull
Source: Carbon Trust 2011
UK offshore wind R&D
customer-driven
Market
• Researchfocused
• May not
meet
customer
needs
• Customerfocused
• Innovators
focus on
main
challenges
Offshore Wind Accelerator
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60% of UK market is in OWA:
big pull for innovators
OWA developers have 30GW of licensed capacity in UK waters
Developer
RWE
SSE
Centrica
SPR
Vattenfall
DONG
Statkraft
Statoil
Mainstream
Siemens
Fluor
E.ON
SeaEnergy
EDP
Eneco
Warwick
Fred Olsen
Masdar
EDF
AREG
Round 1
150 12%
10 1%
194 16%
Round 2
STW & Demo
453 8%
2,202 24%
504 5%
1,518 26%
1,430 16%
498 5%
2,406
1,500 26%
58 1%
26%
158 2%
158 2%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
244 20%
360 6%
252 3%
3,750
3,983
4,185
250 3%
240 20%
Round 3
0 0%
600 7%
90 7%
12%
6,555
12%
11%
3,600
0 0%
11%
14%
6,015
13%
3,600
12%
5,809
5,350
4,396
2,884
12%
11%
9%
6%
2,250 7%
2,408
5%
2,250 7%
2,408
5%
2,000 6%
2,360
5%
2,000 6%
2,000 4%
1,733 5%
1,985 4%
300 5%
913 16%
Total market
1,809 4%
325 1%
1,238 3%
975 3%
975 2%
900 3%
900 2%
650 1%
415 7%
200 2%
415 1%
200 0%
90 7%
90 0%
58 1%
OWA Stage II partners
Source: RenewableUK (Jan 2010), The Crown Estate (May 2010)
58
10
Focus is on areas developers
most able to influence
O&M
Turbine
Yield
Cost of
finance
I&C
BoP
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Aiming to reduce impact of
distance and depth on cost
Wind speed
Distance
Depth
CoE as % typical
near-shore site
130
130
130
120
120
120
110
110
110
100
100
100
90
90
90
80
80
80
70
<700
70
0-12
70
0-20
700800
800900
900+
Wind power (W/m2)
12-30
30-60
60+
Distance to shore (nm)
Note: Cost analysis for <700 W/m2 wind power, where 100% = £97/MWh (2008 assumptions)
Source: Carbon Trust “Big Challenge, Big Opportunity” 2008
20-40
Depth (m)
40-60
Research performed within
Technical Working Groups
Innovation is provided by third-parties
Steering Committee
Carbon Trust Management Team
Foundations
Wake Effects
Access
Electrical
Technical
Working Group
Technical
Working Group
Technical
Working Group
Technical
Working Group
Innovators,
designers
Innovators,
designers
Innovators,
designers
Innovators,
designers
125+ people
500+ companies
OWA partners
Carbon Trust
3rd party contractors
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Many companies engaged by
OWA to deliver innovation
Foundations
Wake effects
Designers
Fabricators
Installers
Electrical
systems
O&M
Developers
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Two types of activity: Common
R&D and Discretionary Projects
Partners opt-in to participate in Discretionary Projects
Common R&D
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Foundations
Wake Effects
Electrical
ATL
New area 1
New area 2
Discretionary
projects
Demo proj. 1
Selected Demo proj. 2
Selected Demo proj. 3
Selected Demo proj. 4
Selected Demo proj. 5
ETC
Common
Partner “A” participation
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Other Partners’ Projects
Some important stakeholders
for OWA
Funders
OWA
R&D
institutes
F
A
W
E
Innovators,
designers
WTG OEMs
Finance
community
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OWA focuses on strengthening
economics of offshore wind
Offshore wind returns
OPEX
Yield
Financing costs
CAPEX
Foundations
Access
Electrical systems
Wake effects
Four technology areas, selected on basis of
detailed analysis of over 70 technical barriers
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Foundations
Most of UK licenced capacity is
in 20-60m depths
0
0-10
10-20
1,000
2,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
580
835
7,000 Round 1, 2 and 3
potential installed
capacity (MW)
1,340
20-30
5,880
30-40
6,260
6,050
40-50
6,220
3,660
5,060
50-60
60-70
3,000
560
Round 3
Round 2
Round 1
Depth (m)
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Source: Crown Estate 2009
Foundations
Turbine installation rates will
need to increase dramatically
Number of turbines installed per year 2003 - 20201
One new turbine
installed every 11 days
One new turbine
installed per day
2.5 new turbines
installed per day
1,000 1,000
900
700
Actuals
Modelled
500
300
150
21
20
30
30
33
333
400
500
400
218
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Over 6,000 turbines to be
installed over 10 years
1. Number of turbines calculated from actual and forecast installed capacity figures, assuming 3MW turbines 2003 – 2013,
and 5MW turbines from 2014
Source: Carbon Trust “Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity”, 2008; Carbon Trust analysis 2010
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Foundations
Foundations research area
focuses on 30-60m
Shortlist
Finalists
Current focus
Keystone
Fabrication
Gifford /
BMT /
Installation
Freyssinet
SPT
Offshore
Airbus A320
IHC
Demonstration
MBD
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010, IHC
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Electrical Systems
Electrical systems opportunity:
higher voltage arrays
Current priorities
Engaging cable suppliers
to deliver higher voltage
cables
Benefit
Improved reliability
Lower losses
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
Optimising design of
switchgear, transformers
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Wake Effects
More accurate models are being
developed
Increases wind farm yields and reduces financing costs
Model A
1.2
Model B
1.1
Normalised Power
Model C
1
Model D
Model Db
0.9
Model Ea
Coloured lines
Model Ec
represent
different
Model F
models
orStable
Model F
model variants
0.8
0.7
0.6
UpWind
0.5
Measured Data
0.4
Upper 25%
1
2
3
4
5
Colum n
6
7
8
Low er 25%
Next steps
Develop more accurate wake effects models
Develop tools to optimise layouts
Measurement campaign to reduce data collection costs
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
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Access Systems
Access competition to increase
availability and safety
Over 450 designs entered
Challenge: improve access in
tough metocean conditions
New technologies required to
implement optimal strategies
Transfer
systems
Vessels
Launch &
recovery
systems
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
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Some excellent R&D is being
performed in Europe
Examples
Denmark – Risø
Germany – RAVE, Fraunhofer
Netherlands – ECN, FLOW
Norway – NOWITECH
Sweden – Vindforsk III
UK – ETI, NAREC
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Greater collaboration is needed
Reduce duplication, increase efficiency
0
5
10
15
25
23
Turbine development
No. projects
15
Grid integration
Foundations
10
8
Ecosystem
Wind resource assessment
7
Wake effects
5
Access / O&M
5
Electrical systems
4
Floating wind turbine
4
Source: Carbon Trust analysis 2010
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OWA focus area
25
Conclusions
We are focusing our RD&D efforts on the needs of end users
Cost reduction in site conditions applicable to EU market
RD&D is essential for driving down cost of offshore wind
Strengthens economic returns
Reduces financing costs
Reduces costs to consumers
Accelerates deployment
Greater collaboration would benefit everyone
Avoids duplication and reinvention
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Phil de Villiers
Offshore Wind Accelerator Manager
[email protected]
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