Transcript EPA Status
Update on EPA
Activities
MOPC
July 15-16, 2014
Topics Covered
•
•
Current Known Impacts
–
Retirements
–
De-ratings
–
Outage Impact Studies
Proposed Clean Power Plan
2
CURRENT KNOWN IMPACTS
3
Impact on Coal in SPP
(based on recent survey)
Kansas
(MW)
5,000
285
5,127
0
Arkansas
(MW)
5,000
78
0
1,100
Comparison with ITP 10 Assumptions
TOTAL CAPACITY OF COAL
UNITS
Future 1 2025
Future 2 2025
TOTAL CAPACITY OF COAL UNITS
BY STATE
2018 Projection
Future 1
6,000
Future 2
2018
30,000
5,000
25,459
25,000
22,863
4,000
20,475
15,000
Megawatts
Megawatts
20,000
3,000
2,000
10,000
5,000
0
1,000
0
AR
IA
KS
LA
MO
NE
OK
TX
5
Outage Impact Study *
•
•
SPP bi-annual study process
–
Four-year look ahead for reliability issues
–
Weekly snapshots through the four years
–
Scheduled outages taken into account
Current studies indicate there will be adequate time to
perform generator retrofits necessary to comply with known
environmental regulations
–
Retrofits are expected to impact generation supply
economics more than the ability to reliably serve load
* Formerly called “EPA Study”
66
Outage Impact Study Resource Adequacy 2014
2014 Weekly Outages
67,678
7
Outage Impact Study Resource Adequacy 2015
2015 Weekly Outages
67,678
8
PROPOSED CLEAN POWER PLAN
9
EPA Clean Power Plan Overview
•
EPA’s proposed performance standards to reduce CO2
emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired generators
•
Promulgated under authority of Section 111(d) of the
Clean Air Act
•
Achieves nationwide 30% reduction of CO2 from 2005
levels by 2030
•
Proposes state-specific emission rate-based CO2 goals
–
Based on EPA’s interpretation and application of Best System of
Emission Reduction (BSER)
–
Must be met by 2030
10
EPA Clean Power Plan Overview
•
States goals and flexibility
–
Interim goals applied 2020-2029 that allows states to
choose trajectory
–
Offers guidelines and allows states flexibility to develop
and submit State Implementation Plans
–
States may adopt an equivalent mass-based goal
•
States can develop individual plans or collaborate with
other states
•
If state does not submit a plan or its plan is not
approved, EPA will establish a plan for that state
11
Clean Power Plan Milestones
June
June 2,
June
2017
2014
2015
Draft rule
issued
Final rule
expected
State plans
due (with
one-year
extension)
January
2020-29
Interim goal in effect
Oct 16,
June
June
January
2014
2016
2018
2030
Comments
due to EPA
State
Implentation
Plans due
Multi-state
plans due (with
two-year
extension)
Final goal
in effect
12
BSER is Based on Four Building Blocks
Block
Assumption
1. Improve efficiency of
existing coal plants
6% efficiency improvement across fleet,
assuming best practices and equipment
upgrades
2. Increase reliance on CC gas
units
Re-dispatch of Natural Gas CCs up to a
capacity factor of 70%
3. Expand use of renewable
resources and sustain
nuclear power production
Meet regional non-hydro renewable target,
prevent retirement of at-risk nuclear
capacity and promote completion of nuclear
capacity under construction
4. Expand use of demand-side
energy efficiency
Scale to achieve 1.5% of prior year’s annual
savings rate
*Uses 2012 data for existing units and estimated data for units under construction.
13
SPP State Goals by 2030
Fossil Unit CO2 Emission Rate Goals and Block Application (lbs/MWh)
3,000
2439
2368
2331
2320
2256
2162
2010
2,000
1798
1,500
1771
1783
1722
1562
1714
1499
1479
1533
1420
1544
SPP State Average
1,000
2030 Rate = 1,045
1048
910
895
883
Louisiana
SPP State Average
2012 Rate = 1,699
Oklahoma
2,500
741
791
500
Final Goal
Energy Efficiency
Renewable
Nuclear
Redispatch CCs
*Includes Future States with IS Generation in SPP (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming)
Texas
Arkansas
New Mexico
Missouri
Nebraska
S. Dakota
Kansas
Wyoming
N. Dakota
Montana
0
Heat Rate Improvement
14
SPP State % Emission Reduction Goals
Total CO2 Emission Reduction Goals (%)
80
70
60
50
Average of SPP
States = 38.5%
40
30
20
10
*Includes Future States with IS Generation in SPP (N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming)
Missouri
N. Dakota
Wyoming
Montana
Nebraska
Kansas
New Mexico
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
S. Dakota
0
15
EPA Projected 2016-2020 EGU Retirements
(For SPP and Select Neighboring States)
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
MW
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
AR
KS
MO
MT
ND
Coal Steam
*Excludes committed retirements prior to 2016
**AEP provided data extracted from EPA IPM data
NE
NM
Oil/Gas Steam
OK
SD
TX
IA
LA
CT
16
SPP State Efforts Underway
•
•
Arkansas
–
ADEQ has already had two stakeholder meetings, June 25th & May 28th
–
Next stakeholder meeting August 28th
–
SPP Staff met with ADEQ to provide an SPP overview
Missouri
–
•
Nebraska
–
•
SPP Staff meeting with NDEQ and Nebraska utilities on July 30th
Oklahoma
–
•
Stakeholder meeting scheduled by MoPSC on August 18th
Meeting being scheduled in August with stakeholders
Texas
–
Public workshop scheduled by PUCT on August 15th
17
How Can SPP Assist?
Help educate and work with states
Perform impact analyses
–
Inform stakeholder responses that are due October 16
–
Inform current planning efforts
–
Assist state and member decision making
Facilitate coordinated SPP response to proposed Clean
Power Plan
Evaluate and facilitate regional approach
Coordinate with neighbors
Other ways?
18
SPP’s Proposed Impact Analysis Framework
•
Perform both reliability and economic analyses
–
Use 2024 ITPNT and ITP10 Future 2 models as base case
–
Develop two scenarios
–
Identify incremental reliability problems and increased APC
•
Perform gas price sensitivity in economic analysis
•
Perform load scaling sensitivity in reliability analysis
•
Report results by October 1
19
Proposed Impact Analysis Scenarios
Parameter
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Coal
50% retirement
20% retirement
NGCCs*
Increase capacity factor to
70%
Increase capacity factor to
50%
Wind
At least 50% capacity
increase, assume additional
state RPS
At least 50% capacity
increase
Energy Efficiency 1% of load
3% of load
Demand
Response
None
None
Carbon Tax
None
$30/ton
*Will attempt to use existing capacity to replace coal up to existing capacity margin requirements
20