Transcript 14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014

Multi-model ensemble hydrometeorological
modelling of the 4 November 2011 Genoa,
Italy flash flood in the framework of the
DRIHM project
Alan Hally, Olivier Caumont, Olivier Nuissier, Véronique Ducrocq (CNRS – Météo-France), Évelyne
Richard, Juan Escobar (CNRS – Laboratoire d’Aérologie), Antonio Parodi, Nicola Rebora, Elisabetta Fiori,
Fabio Delogu, Fabio Pintus (CIMA), Andrea Clematis, Daniele D'Agostino, Antonella Galizia, Alfonso
Quarati, Emanuele Danovaro (CNR-IMATI), Luis Garrote (UPM), Maria Carmen Llasat (Univ. Barcelona),
Quillon Harpham (HR Wallingford), Albrecht Weerts, H.R.A. Jagers (Deltares), Arnold Tafferner, Caroline
Forster (DLR), Vladimir Dimitrijević, Ljiljana Dekić, Marija Ivković, Ana Mihalović (RHMSS), Richard
Hooper (CUAHSI)
What is DRIHM?
An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering
computer-science experts and hydrometerological
researchers from 10 European and US institutions.
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
What is DRIHM?
An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering
computer-science experts and hydrometerological
researchers from 10 European and US institutions.
What is the project’s main objective?
Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost
hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble
prediction.
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
What is DRIHM?
An FP7-funded project (2011-2015) gathering
computer-science experts and hydrometerological
researchers from 10 European and US institutions.
What is the project’s main objective?
Use cutting-edge information and communication technology to boost
hydrometeorological research, with a focus on flash floods and ensemble
prediction.
What are the project’s technical goals?
Develop a prototype e-Science environment that allows various users
(researchers, citizen scientists) to provide and access hydrometeorological data
and models and run complex hydrometeorological chains (from atmospheric
simulations to hydraulic models through rainfall-discharge hydrological models)
via a user-friendly interface.
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydro-meteorological Chains
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
The DRIHM Distributed Infrastructure
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Enabling new research paradigms
WRF
Meso-NH
AROME
DRiFt
RIBS
RainFARM
OBS
Streamflow OBS
Hydrometeorological
connections available initially
No interoperability or
standard interfacing
Direct Hard-wired
interface
Gridded Data
Point Series
Data
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Enabling new research paradigms
WRF
Meso-NH
AROME
DRiFt
RainFARM
RIBS
Streamflow OBS
Direct Hard-wired
interface
WRF
Meso-NH
DRIHM
AROME
RainFARM
NetCDF-CF
DRiFt
OBS
OBS
Hydrometeorological
connections available initially
No interoperability or
standard interfacing
Hydrometeorological
connections created through
DRIHM MeteorologicalModel-Bridge (MMB)
Increased interoperability and
standard interfacing
WaterML 2
RIBS
Streamflow OBS
WaterML 2
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Gridded Data
Point Series
Data
A Mediterranean severe flash flood event
Genoa, Italy, 4th
November 2011
A third of the average annual rainfall (450 mm) fell in 6 hours
Caused by the Bisagno creek bursting its banks
Six people were killed
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
4th November 2011 - Meteorological Details
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Available Data and Numerical Setup
6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM,
AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM)
These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS)
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Available Data and Numerical Setup
6 different simulated and observed rainfall sources (OBS, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM,
AROME, Meso-NH, RainFARM)
These rainfall sources used to drive 3 different hydrological models (HBV, DRiFt, RIBS)
The characteristics of the different meteorological and hydrological ensembles
performed for the case of the 4 November 2011
All simulations initialised at 00 UTC, 4 Nov. 2011, except Arome ensemble (18 UTC, 3
Nov. 2011).
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Meteorological Simulations – 24h Precipitation
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Meteorological Simulations – Ensembles
AROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Meteorological Simulations – Ensembles
AROME Ensemble – 8 members, perturbed IC and BC
Meso-NH Ensemble – 10 members, perturbed physical
parameterisations
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydrological Simulations
1 - RIBS (deterministic)
2 - RIBS (probabilistic)
3 - DRiFt (deterministic)
4 - HBV (deterministic)
Peak observed discharge
(800 m3/s)
Warning threshold
(400 m3/s)
All hydrological models forced with MNHMWF ensemble
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydrological Simulations
RIBS - Deterministic
1 – OBS
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydrological Simulations
RIBS - Deterministic
1 – OBS
RIBS - Probabilistic
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydrological Simulations
RIBS - Deterministic
1 – OBS
RIBS - Probabilistic
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
DRiFt - Deterministic
1 – OBS
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Hydrological Simulations
RIBS - Deterministic
1 – OBS
RIBS - Probabilistic
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
DRiFt - Deterministic
1 – OBS
HBV - Deterministic
2 – AROME
3 – WRF-ARW
4 – MNH-ARP
5 – MNH-MWF
6 – WRF-NMM
7 - RainFARM
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Project Conclusions and Perspectives
Successful exploitation of the DRIHM infrastructure for
hydrometeorological research:
Transparent interfacing of 6 simulated or observed rainfall sources with 3
hydrological models using Meteorological-Model-Bridge (MMB)
Production of more than 1500 different scenarios, an in depth study of the physics
and predictability of a chosen event, the design of efficient hydrometeorological
ensembles, the propagation of uncertainties throughout a hydrometeorological
forecasting chain, etc.
Sensitivity to choice of hydrological model, but increased sensitivity to choice of
simulated rainfall source
Future work:
Integration of additional components (models and services) in the DRIHM eInfrastructure
Further case studies (Muga flash-flood in Spain Nov. 2011, Flash-floods Serbia May
2014)
Results and conclusions to be published in NHESS
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
http://www.drihm.eu/
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Numerical Model Domains
WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH, AROME
Models have different:
domains, resolutions and
configurations
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014
Meteorological Simulations – 10m wind
14th EMS Meeting, Prague, 6th-10th Oct. 2014