Transcript Rodolfo C. Severino

Regional Integration Through
ASEAN
Keynote address by Rodolfo C. Severino,
Head, ASEAN Studies Centre,
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,
at the Asian-German Dialogue
Singapore, 23 June 2011
Meaning of Regional Integration
• Broader meaning:
– Political cohesion
– Economic integration
– Regional cooperation
• Inter-related
• Work in progress (2015?), esp. pol/sec
and socio-cultural
• Will take time; never-ending
• External relations
Political Cohesion
• Vietnam into Cambodia
– Resistance
– Political settlement
• Philippines
• Myanmar
• Human rights
• South China Sea
• Cambodia-Thailand skirmishes
• Blueprint for APSC full of words like encourage, promote, etc.,
but aim is clear – no fighting between members and keeping SE
Asia uninvolved in quarrels of major power; inclusive, nonadversarial
Economic Integration
• AFTA
– Tariff-cutting on track
– NTBs
• AICO working
• Other agreements in place:
– Services
– Investments
– Customs
– Standards and conformance
– Transport, communications
• Problem: implementation, effectiveness
• But commitments
Regional Cooperation
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SARS, other communicable diseases
Haze
Drugs
Terrorism, TNC
Environment
Obstacles to Integration: ASEAN
• Diversity
– Political, economic, social systems
– Historic alliances and orientations
– Disparities in economic levels
– Differences in institutional strength
• Mutual suspicion
• Legacy of antagonism
• Different values placed on regionalism
Obstacles to Integration: East Asia
• Rivalry among NE Asians
• ASEAN default hub and convenor
• Disparities:
– Political
– Economic
– Social
• Mutual suspicion
External Relations
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Dialogue partnerships
ARF
ASEAN+3
ASEM
ASEAN+1s
EAS
ASEAN-UN
External Relations
• FTA: CEP or CEC (mainly political, except
probably ANZ)
• China
• Japan
• ROK
• India
• ANZ
• US?
• EU?
ASEAN+3
• CMI:
– Surveillance
– Swap arrangements
– Training and research
• Multilateralization
• Enlargement
• Other areas of cooperation
EAS
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ASEAN+3+Australia, India, NZ
Promoted by Japan, Singapore, Indonesia
Leaders-led
ERIA
Now Russia, US
EAFTA vs CEPEA?
Issues that may arise from US entry:
– CEPEA: ROK FTA experience, TPP, FTAAP
– US agenda
What can EU and others do?
• Support for IAI:
– Infrastructure
– HRD
– Reforms
• Do not let Myanmar politics hamper
relations with ASEAN
• Rule of law in SCS
• AICO