Transcript Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre
Towards a European Collision Warning and Avoidance Centre
BURAK YAGLIOGLU Dr. ELİF KUTDEMİR, Dr. EGEMEN IMRE, ÖZGÜN YILMAZ
P 2 ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820
Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
63 rd International Astronautical Congress Naples, 5 October 2012
Outline
Introduction
Current Conditions and Standardized Operations
The European Collision Warning Avoidance Centre (ECWAC)
Conclusions
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63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
Introduction
Space assets becoming more critical for many aspects of the daily life
More small scale operators to launch space assets
Protection of the space assets
Prevention is better than cure
Well protected big players: Not enough!
Any collision in space > faster cascade > everyone loses
How to enable small players to protect themselves?
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63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
Environmental Characteristics
Good prediction High risk Catastrophic results Reasonable prediction Very low risk Catastrophic results??
OK prediction Low risk Catastrophic results??
LEO MEO GEO Object Population Characteristics † Conjunction Characteristics † Very high density of both trackable (~5%, > 5cm.) and non trackable objects Low density of trackable (>0.4 m.) and non trackable objects High density of trackable (>1 m.) objects, stable regions are more populated Impact velocities associated with conjunctions are high and collision risk is higher around polar regions Relatively the lowest risk of conjunction with objects in space Impact velocities associated with conjunctions are relatively lower * However, it has to be taken into account in radiation shielding design and in the operations phase.
† Based on the analysis performed using the ESA MASTER 2009 software.
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63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
Overview of Collision Avoidance Operations
JSpOC (CSMs, TLE data) RADAR (RADAR data for chaser) Rough Assessment PoC > PoC threshold Fine Assessment PoC > PoC threshold Manoeuvre Planning PoC > PoC threshold Manoeuvre Decision Post Manoeuvre Activity Flight Dynamics (Precise orbit data for target satellite) Operator (Platform and Mission Constraints/Considerations)
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63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
Main Problem
While big operators are able to implement standard procedures with access to:
• •
all sorts of data, tools and sensors
to check for possible risks and refine the data with further sensor measurements, most other operators have varying degrees of awareness and capabilities regarding conjunction prediction, analysis and collision avoidance manoeuvring.
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63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
ECWAC
63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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More Ground and Space Based Sensors
ECWAC
Consultancy in S/C and Mission Design Better Collision Risk Indicators New Service 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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ECWAC
Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone Service Available to Everyone 63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Proposed Improvements
Better Risk Analysis Data (For Everyone)
Improved the observation sensor network for better quality Standardized risk analysis tools through a common access point
Better and Standardized Manoeuvre Planning
Better understanding of the conjunction information Standardized tools for manoeuvre planning Standardized conjunction analysis tools to be made available during the manoeuvre planning stage
63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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Proposed Improvements
Collision Avoidance as a Part of Routine Operations
A well established operational procedure with all sorts of necesssary information The measures should be initiated as early as possible The state of the conjunction event chain should be well documented and communicated
Collision Avoidance as a Part of Design
Enhance the flexibility of mission concept to account for the risk reduction operations Establish a telemetry based system diagram including troubleshooting and problem indicators Page 11
63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
Conclusions
Space debris problem is NOT going away!
Small operators are posing a significant threat for everyone (including themselves!)
Europe can lead the way by extending SSA: ECWAC!
Through ECWAC, more awareness, more information and more tools to be made available:
At design stage During regular operations When handling a conjunction event Page 12
63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
QUESTIONS
GRAZIE!
63 rd International Astronautical Congress, Naples, 5 October 2012
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