Assessment of black carbon in the Arctic: new emission inventory of Russia, model evaluation and implications

Kan Huang 1

,

Joshua S. Fu 1,2 , Xinyi Dong 1

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA 2 UTK-ORNL Center for Interdisciplinary Research and Graduate Education, Energy Science and Engineering, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA

2013 CMAS Meeting October 29, 2013

Motivations

Arctic black carbon simulation problems:



Large diversity of modeling BC from different models (Shindell et al., 2008)



Strong underestimation of BC in Arctic (Shindell et al., 2008; Koch et al., 2009)



Improper wet scavenging parameterizations (Bourgeois et al., 2011) US NEI Canada NEI

Shindell et al., 2008

EMEP

Motivations

On December 17, 2009, in Copenhagen, the US Government committed to international cooperation to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions in and around the Arctic.

Arctic Black Carbon (BC) Initiative: A project funded by U.S. DOE



Activity #1: Arctic BC Identification:

Receptor modeling: Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF)

(ORNL)



Activity #2: Establish BC Emissions Inventory of Russia (base year : 2010): Improve estimates of BC emissions in Russia and verification by model simulation Tasks:

(UTK)

BC emissions from gas flaring, transportation, residential, power plants and Industries



Activity #3: Demonstration of BC Emissions Reduction Technologies:

Demonstrate the best-available emissions reduction technologies for a subset of the identified sources in Russia.

(ORNL)

I. Gas flaring: a missing BC source

Russia possess the largest natural gas reserves of 24% in the world as of 2009.

(Dmitry Volkov, 2008)

Also, the top 1 gas flaring country

(Elvidge et al., 2009)

Annual gas flare volume in the global scale and in Russia

Estimation of gas flaring EF and emission in Russia

No field measurement available Only laboratory test

(McEwen and Johnson, 2012)

Composition of the associated gas in Russia 45 MJ/m 3 1.62 g/m 3 64.14 MJ/m 3 BC flaring = Volume * Soot EF

Volume : Gas flaring volume of Russia in 2010 was

35.6 BCM

(billion cubic meters) The BC emission from Russia’s gas flaring in 2010 is estimated to be

57.6 Gg

.

Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission

Gas flare areas (red polygon)

retrieved from satellite (U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS))

Spatial allocation proxy (contour)

nighttime lights product

Data source: NOAA NGDC

Spatial distribution of gas flaring BC emission (0.1*0.1 degree)

II. Transportation BC emission

Public bus

19%

Private bus

16% 13% 41% 30%

< 3.5t

11% 8% 30% 51%

3.5 - 8t

9% 2% 2% 87%

Cars

10% 18% 25% 47%

8 - 16t

9% 2%3% 86% Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3+

> 16t

7% 11%

Share of different Euro vehicles

21% 61%

II. Transportation BC emission

PM emission factors (g/km) of various vehicle types standards (Euro 0 – Euro 3) and driving conditions dependent on different Euro (urban, intercity and highways)

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Urban Intercity Highways Cars Small Medium Buses Large Extra large 0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

Urban intercity highways Light Trucks and buses (< 3.5 tons <7.5 tons 7.5-16 tons 16-32 tons >32 tons Heavy duty trucks

Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008

II. Transportation BC emission

Soot emission factors (g/min) during warm-up (cold start)

0.180

0.160

0.140

0.120

0.100

0.080

0.060

0.040

0.020

0.000

Warm season Cold season Cars Light duty Euro 0 Euro 1 + Euro 0 Euro 1 + Trucks (> 3.5 tons) Buses (> 3.5 tons)

Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation Research Institute, 2008

Total = 52.9 Gg

2% 9% 5% 1% 11% 16% 56% Public buses Private buses Cars Trucks Warm-up Rail Non-road

III. Residential BC emission

Residential BC emissions in Russia are based on fuel consumption data and EFs.

1 Total = 57.0 Gg Coal

35%

Fuelwood

61% Fuelwood Coal Industrial waste Kerosene Lignite brown coal Lignite-brown coal briquettes Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Natural gas (including LNG) Peat (for fuel use) Refinery gas Residual fuel oil Other petroleum products Coke-oven coke Gas-diesel oils

2 3 National BC -> Federal District level based on residential firewood consumption from

Russia’s FSSS

(Federal State Statistics Service) District BC -> grid cell population density within each district ( ORNL’s LandScan dataset)

IV. Power plants & V. Industrial BC emission

BC emissions from power plants and industries in Russia are based on PM (particulate matter) data from Russian official figures and scaling factors (BC/PM 2.5

ratio) from the U.S. EPA SPECIATE database.

Total = 12.1 Gg National BC -> grid level CARMA (Carbon Monitoring for Action): power plant location, energy capacity and CO 2 emission.

Total = 12.3 Gg National BC -> Provincial level based on provincial industrial revenues from

Russia’s FSSS

(Federal State Statistics Service) Provincial BC -> grid cell population density within each district ( ORNL’s LandScan dataset)

Sectoral contributions to Russian anthropogenic BC emissions

Russia total BC = 191.8 Gg

6% 30% 30% 6% 28% Gas flaring Power plants Transportation Residential Industry

111 Gg

BC emission prepared for ARCTAS Wang et al ., 2011

Surface BC (or absorption coefficient) observation sites in the Arctic Alert Birkenes Pallas Zeppelin Barrow Tiksi

GEOS-Chem Simulation vs. Observations

40% 25% 40% 100%

Impact from increased BC emission

Surface BC from the difference between simulation with new emission and the base case Spring Summer Autumn Winter The impact of the new emission on the increased surface BC concentration could reach over 2 μg/m 3 in Russia and over 20 ng/m 3 over the Arctic Circle.