Transcript Overview of Vietnam`s Energy Sector - Nautilus Institute for Security

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation
in the Northeast Asia Region
Viet Nam- Country Report
By: Dr. Pham Khanh Toan
& Nguyen Minh Bao
Institute of Energy
23-24 September-Beijing-China
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Recent Changes in Energy Sector and
Policies
3. Work Progress and Interim Results of
LEAP Paths
4. Conclusions and Recommendations
1. Introduction
• Viet Nam stretches along
the east coast of
Indochina over a length of
1,600 km between the
northern latitudes of 80
and 230.
• Total land area: 330,000
square kilometers.
•
Shares common borders
with the People’s Republic
of China (PRC) in the
north, and with Laos and
Cambodia in the west.
Introduction
 Population:
• 2009: 85.8 million (result from the general
population census in 01 April 2009).
• From 1999 to 2009: Population were increased by
9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18%
per year, reducing nearly 0.5% compared with
previous 10 year period (1989-1999).
 GDP:
. Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in 19902005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009.
2. Recent Changes in Energy
Sector and Policies
Current Status and Recent Trends
in Energy Sector
• Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to
40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year.
Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy)
Current Status and Recent Trends
in Energy Sector
• In 2007, residential
sector consumes
39% of total final
energy, followed by
industry (36%),
transportation (20%),
commerce (4%) and
agriculture (1%).
The share of energy
consumption by
sector in 2007.
PETRO
Import
VIETNAM
4.2%
Others
1.3%
10.0%
Foreign IPP, BOT
10.4%
EVN
53.1%
VINACOMIN
3.7%
JSC
14.6%
Private
2.8%
Import
3.7%
Others
2.8%
HPPs
39.8%
Gas turbine
32.8%
Oil thermal
2.7%
Coal thermal
16.0%
Gas thermal
2.3%
Import
Diesel
IPP/BOT
Gas
turbine
T ua
bin
khí
Oilđiện
thermal
Nhiệt
dầu
Nhiệt
than
Coalđiện
thermal
T huỷ
điện
HPP
Pmax
20000
15000
20000
15000
16048
13952
12636
11286
10187
9255
6552
5655
5000
8283
10000
7408
10000
5000
0
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
18%
90000
86948
80000
17%
75955
16.9%
68699
70000
16%
60000
53647
15.2%
15%
60533
14.7%
50000
14.5%
41275
13.9%
14%
46790
40000
13.4%
31137
36410
30000
13.5%
13.4%
13%
12.8%
27040
12%
20000
10000
0
2000
Power Gen.-GWh
Growth Rate
11%
10.6%
10%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10
Volume of transmission network as of 2009
3438 km
8497 km
16/7500 MVA
119/19094 MVA
12145 km 746/25862 MVA
Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009
-100% districts have electricity from national grid or local system
- 97.6% communes (8880/9101 communes); and
- 95,1% rural households have electricity from grid (13.95/14.67 mill. hh)
11
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 National Energy Saving & Target
• In April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed
Decision No. 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C
program for the period 2006-2015.
• The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of
total national energy consumption over the period 20062010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 National Energy Efficient Use Policies
• In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient Use
was passed by the National Assembly.
• The Law includes 12 chapters, 48 articles to institutionalize
policies on national energy resources, energy security,
environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic
development.
• The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy
saving potential such as industry, transport, service and
residential.
• The Law stipulated that large energy-consuming industries and
buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to
improve efficiency, and to designate internal energy managers
responsible for energy-efficiency work.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency:
Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy
consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency:
• Industry: Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in 1990 to
14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year,
accounting for 27.8% of total energy consumption in 1990 and
increased to 35.6% in 2007.
• Transportation: consumption grew from 1,413 KTOE in 1990
to 8,671 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year.
• Residential: Household use of modern energy (such as LPG
and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year
during 1990–2007.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target Sectors
a, Industrial Sector:
- Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities.
- Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management.
- Planning access to energy-efficient equipments, modern production lines.
- Select high efficient technologies for new power plants.
b, Transport Sector:
- Means of transportation must comply with the technical standards
- Improvement and promotion of using public transport system.
- Development and using clean and other substitution fuels.
c, Residential and Commercial Sector:
- Energy efficient use in buildings, lighting systems and residential sectors.
- Introduction of energy-saving appliances, renewable energy in households
and commercial buildings, along with management measurements.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 National Policies in Nuclear Energy
• In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved “Sstrategy to
apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020”.
• In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared an
Investment Report on construction of nuclear power plants
in Ninh Thuan province.
• The Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant
project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province,
4000 MW, was approved by the National Assembly in
November 2009. At each site, two nuclear units with
capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 National Policies in Nuclear Energy
• In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved “Orientation
planning for nuclear energy development up to the year 2030”.
• Three phases of NPP development:
- The first phase (by 2015): Approval of investment project,
selecting sites and contractors, and training the human
resource; Preparing mechanisms, policies on for project
construction and management.
- The next five year stage (by 2020), the first unit of the Ninh
Thuận Nuclear Power Plant 1 (1000MW) will be finished
and put into operation by 2020. The second plant will also
be built during this period.
Viet Nam’s Energy Policy
 National Policies in Nuclear Energy
- The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power plants
will be built
• According to the development orientation, about eight
sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh
Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai.
- Up to 2030: Total NPP capacity will be 8,000 MW by
2025 and 15,000 MW by 2030, accounting for about
10 percent of the total capacity of power system.
2. Work Progress and Interim
Results of LEAP Paths
Introduction
In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy
demand projection, and development of alternative energy
scenarios addressing climate change problems.
This section will provide the progress and interim results of
LEAP Paths including:
• Methodology and Data
• Energy Demand Structure
• Key Assumptions
• Interim results of LEAP Paths.
Methodology and Data
• Energy demand was constructed and projected for the sectors such
as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial sectors .
• In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to subsectors and projected based on driving activities and energy
intensities.
• Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or
strategies of subsectors.
• Energy intensities were selected based on the available data from
the researches and recent surveys.
• Nuclear capacity scenarios were developed based on the programs
of the country.
Energy Demand Structure
Urban
Cooking
Lighting
Refrigeration
Residential
Air Conditioners
Rural
Cooking
Lighting
Refrigeration
Air Conditioners
Energy Demand Structure
Blast Furnaces
Heat
Iron and Steel
Electricity
Industry
Elec. Arc Furnaces
Rotary Kilns
Electricity
Clinker Product
Cement
Cement Product
Vertical Kilns
Clinker Product
Cement Product
Energy Demand Structure
Coal Kilns
Brick Making
Industry
Rice Husk Kilns
Pulp
Heat
Pulp & Paper
Electricity
Paper
Others
Heat
Electricity
Energy Demand Structure
Passenger
Transport
Freight
Others
Bus
Car
Motorbike
Road
Railway
Train
Aviation
Air plane
Road
Truck
Railway
Train
Waterway
Boat
Maritime
Vessel
Energy Demand Structure
Irrigation
Agriculture
Electric Pump
DO Pump
Land Preparation
Sea Catching
Mechanized rate
Mechanized rate
Tractors
Ships
Key Assumptions
• GDP: Viet Nam’s GDP is projected to grow at an average annual
rate of 6.9%, 7.2% and 7.0% in the periods of 2005-2010, 2011-2020
and 2021-2030 respectively in the base case scenario.
Period
2006-2010
2011-2020
2021-2030
Annual Growth Rate
6.9%
7.2%
7.0%
• Population Growth Assumption
Year
Growth Rate
2000-2010
1.1%
2010-2020
1.0%
2020-2030
0.7%
• Urbanization rate: 44.5% in 2030
Key Assumptions
Nuclear Power Plant Development Scenarios Updated
Unit: MW
2020
2025
2030
Minimum Nuclear Scenario
1,000
4,000
6,000
BAU Nuclear Scenario
1,000
6,000
11,000
Maximum Nuclear Scenario
1,000
8,000
15,000
Interim Results
Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
Biomass
Coal
Diesel
Electricity
Gasoline
Jet Kerosene
Kerosene
LPG
Natural Gas
FO
Wood
Total
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
7,450
6,072
5,688
3,933
2,708
432
310
896
6,375
10,610
8,089
6,841
3,951
658
370
1,410
6,093
13,980
11,652
10,602
5,815
1,014
462
2,072
5,987
18,350
16,860
16,087
8,539
1,562
597
2,945
6,078
22,827
23,854
23,050
12,199
2,346
808
4,001
6,602
28,704
34,027
33,130
17,381
3,524
1,104
5,371
- 0.48
6.41
7.42
8.90
7.72
8.76
5.21
7.43
100
554
1,023
1,597
2,274
3,133
14.77
1,605
2,145
2,828
3,739
4,752
6,053
5.45
5,239
34,431
4,852
45,856
4,399
59,939
3,907
80,170
3,302
2,668
105,492 141,698
-2.66
5.82
Interim Results
Final Energy Demand by Sectors (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
Residential
14,532 15,034 15,618 16,411
17,188
18,259
0.92
Industry
9,719
16,248 23,042 32,620
43,703
59,291
7.50
Transport
7,169
10,438 15,375 22,721
32,891
47,759
7.88
Agriculture
1,382
1,855
2,523
3,401
4,339
5,543
5.71
Commercial
1,629
2,281
3,382
5,017
7,371
10,847
7.88
Total
34,431 45,856 59,939 80,170 105,492 141,698
5.82
Interim Results
Residential: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
Urban
2,334
3,056
3,965
5,123
6,474
8,153
5.13
Rural
12,198
11,977
11,653
11,288
10,713
10,106
-0.75
Total
14,532
15,034
15,618
16,411
17,188
18,259
0.92
Interim Results
Industry: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
363
1,715
3,059
4,430
5,522
6,642
12.3
Cement
3,160
5,238
5,707
6,246
6,494
6,743
3.1
Brick Making
2,393
2,895
4,243
6,220
9,024 13,092
7.0
353
579
949
1,565
1,869
2,174
7.5
Others
3,450
5,822
9,084
14,160 20,794 30,641
9.1
Total
9,719
16,248 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291
7.5
Iron and Steel
Pulp and Paper
Interim Results
Industry: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Biomass
1,427
1,034
1,518
2,227
3,225
Coal
4,777
8,900 11,823
15,701
19,658
Diesel
265
380
1,870
3,527
12
15
18
22
LPG
109
309
495
770
Natural Gas
100
554
1,023
FO
1,159
1,528
Total
9,719
Electricity
Kerosene
16,248
523
5,675
720
9,047
944
13,364
27
2030
4,671
24,928
1,237
19,921
31
AGR.%
(05-30)
4.9
6.8
6.4
9.9
3.9
1,110
1,583
11.3
1,597
2,274
3,133
14.8
1,966
2,535
3,101
3,787
4.9
23,042
32,620
43,703
59,291
7.5
Interim Results
Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
Passenger
3332
5145
8028 12525 19051 28973
9.0
Freight
3531
4870
6759
6.6
307
423
587
Other
Total
9382 12734 17284
815
1106
1501
6.6
7169 10438 15375 22721 32891 47759
7.9
Interim Results
Transport: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
AGR.%
(05-30)
Diesel
3,723
5,406
7,959 11,805
17,239
25,352
8.0
Gasoline
2,708
3,951
5,815
8,539
12,199
17,381
7.7
432
658
1,014
1,562
2,346
3,524
8.8
307
423
587
815
1,106
1,501
6.6
32,891
47,759
7.9
Jet Kerosene
Residual Fuel
Oil
Total
7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721
Interim Results
Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU (KTOE)
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
769
1,762
3,620
6,323
9,241
14,927
Hydro
1,845
2,732
3,341
4,347
5,776
8,210
Natural Gas
1,770
1,752
1,934
1,953
2,568
2,930
-
-
-
527
3,080
5,473
Diesel
73
18
4
2
-
-
FO
140
284
26
20
19
16
4,597
6,548
8,925
13,172
20,685
31,556
Coal
Nuclear
Total
Interim Results
Electricity Generation: Global Warming Potential
(Mil. Tone CO2e)
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2030
BAU
21.9
32.3
48.7
75 105.6 164.2
Maximum Nuclear
21.9
32.3
48.7
75 95.4
Minimum Nuclear
21.9
32.3
48.7
75 115.9 189.0
144.3
4. Conclusion and
Recommendation
Conclusions
As shown above, an interim result was achieved based on
the updated data on energy, economics and main driving
activities.
• Energy demand of residential, industry, and transport
sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses.
• Energy demand was projected based energy consumption
indexes and driving activities referred from the development
strategies of sectors and sub-sectors.
• GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on the
BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear power
development.
Recommendation
As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for
residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in
sub-sectors and end-uses. Moreover, the GHG Mitigation Scenarios
were also developed only on supply side based on BAU, Minimum
and Maximum nuclear power development paths. Therefore, these
is still room for “next steps” of AES Project, including:
• Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side
renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG
emissions.
• Evaluation of the costs for CO2 emissions abatement through
different energy efficient policies and measures.
Thank you very much