Transcript OLED Industry Update

OLED Summit Preview
San Francisco
September 27-29
Barry Young,
CEO, Young Market Research (YMR)
Managing Director, OLED Association
April 13, 2015
Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential
OLED Association



Promote the development and
commercialization of OLED products
Foster the development and use of OLEDspecific performance standards
Serve as a source of OLED industry
information for the media and financial
community
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2
Young Market Research (YMR)
Products
Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and
Supply/Demand
20 Year Projection for Solid State Lighting (SSL)
LED Material Report (under construction)
OLED Lighting Report (under construction)
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The Inflection Point
Small/Medium
Units (000)
Y/Y Growth Units
Revenue ($000)
Y/Y GrowthRevenue
2009
16,350
548,278
2010
35,888
119%
1,095,519
100%
2011
112,097
212%
2,984,136
172%
2012
321,542
187%
6,622,604
122%
AMOLED’s Incredible Growth in 2011 and
2012
In 2009, there was only 1 AMOLED Fab operating in
MP with 26K substrates starts/month. By the end of
the 2012, there will be at least 7 Fabs from 4
different suppliers.Two of the fabs will be Gen 5.5
(1300x1500 mm). Capacity will grow to 260K
substrates/month
Super AMOLED from Samsung, with Integrated Touch
S.S. Kim, CTO,SMD @ SID Seminar in May, 2010 SMD’s goal is
600m 700m smartphone displays by 2015
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4
OLED Technology
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TFT LCD Vs. AMOLED Display
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6
A Word About Substrate Sizes
2007 730x920
2011
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7
AMOLED Pixel Architecture
•
Technical Status of OLED backplanes,
• LTPS with excimer lasers similar to LTPS
LCDs but OLEDs require a 2 TFT, 1
Capacitor Design, while LCDs use 1 TFT
and 1 capacitor
• Compensation, 4 to 5 TFTs are added to
compensate for non-uniformity
• Major difference is that the 2nd TFT (Dr.)
has a duty cycle of over 90%
• a-Si used by most LCDs is susceptible to
Vth changes as it heats up and has not
been used to drive AMOLEDs, although
there are compensation approaches that
are being tested
• The capital expense for LTPS used in the
array process is ~2X the capital cost of
a-Si, the TACT is longer and the yields are
lower
VDD
Vdata
CS
Sel
Sw.
Dr.
OLED
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8
Backplanes
• Excimer laser size are currently limited to 4th Gen with a beam
length of ~450 x 4 mm . Companies such as JSW and TCZ are
developing beam lengths as long a ~800 mm to support 6th
Gen Fabs
• Primary alternatives to LTPS include:
• a-Si with compensation
• Super Grain Silicon (SGS)
• Solid Phase Crystallization (SPC)
• Oxide TFTs
• C TFTs
• cSi TFTs
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9
Deposition & Patterning
New Techniques Required to Scale the
Process
•
•
•
•
Making finely patterned subpixels with small molecule
material requires the use of
vacuum thermal evaporation
using a fine metal mask, where
the substrate and mask are held
in a horizontal position
Size limits are defined by the
sagging of the mask
To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs
utilize Pentile technology, which
reduces the pixel size from 3
subpixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To
scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE
must be changed from
positioning the substrate
horizontally to holding
vertically as implemented by
Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT
New approaches include the use
of CNT by Unidym and
nanowires by Cambrios
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10
Patterning Options
•
•
•
Alternative approaches include:
– Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed
– Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD
– Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color filter
The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates
Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required
– Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson
– Slot – DuPont
– Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer
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11
Performance Impact
• Comparing Performance: AMOLEDs vs. TFT LCDs
– OLED Performance will be a differentiator for high end TVs; especially in
3D, sports and movies because of the viewing angle, the fast response
time, and gray scale performance
– OLED TVs are likely to compete with Full LED backlighting and 3D LCDs. LG
Display’s 31” TV supports both 2D and 3D viewing
– OLED panels will use ~ ½ the power of LED backlit panels, but the same
for the TV components, so the difference for TVs will be 25% to 30%.
– OLEDs recreate the lower gray levels better than LCDs, which is a
differentiator in video, where the average color saturation is ~20%
– Longer term AMOLED TVs cost should cost less than LCDs and cause most
manufacturers to switch technologies
– OLEDs will be challenged to compete in bright ambient conditions
– Differential aging could be a factor unless material lifetimes improve by at
least 2X
– The issue of image burn-in, which has not been an problem for
smartphones, may require attention due when news tickers are considered
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12
OLED vs. TFT LCD Comparison
Units
Luminance
Brightness
Contrast Ratio (CR)
Ambient Contrast Ratio
@ 125 Lux
Black Levels
Viewing Angles
Response Time
Gray Scale Performance
Frame Rate
42" Power Consumption
Lifetime
cd/m2
cd/m2

cd/m2
CR
ms
Hz
W
hrs to 1/2
luminance
Differential Aging
Image Sticking
Form Factor
AMOLED
TFT LCD
CCFL
LED Edge
Same
OLED ~1.5X Brighter
1000:1
Difference
None
Power
6M:1
Dark Images
~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1
<0.001
0.8
0.1
0.05
100%
20:1
0.001
5
3
3
All Gray
Poor Lower Gray Scales
Scales
>240
30
~120
~80
~60
50K to
100K
~60K
Yes
Some
mm
5000:1
LED Full
2
~70K
~70K
None
Minor
5
3
High Lux
Dark Images
3D
Fast Moving
Movies
None
15
Initial LCD
Strength
Strength
5
Thinner
Source: YMR
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13
Production Capacity
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Production …
• Production Plans
– SMD
• Gen 4 730x920 mm
• Gen 5.5 1300x1500mm
Q4’07
Q3’11
Small/Medium
Small/Medium
– LG Display
• Gen 4 730x920 mm
• Gen 5.5 1300x1500mm
Q3’10
Small/Medium
Q3’11
Small/Medium &
Large Area TVs
– AUO
• Gen 3+ 600x720
• Gen 4 730x920
Q1’11
Q1’11
Small/Medium
Small/Medium
Q1’08
Small/Medium
– CMI
• Gen 3+ 600x720
– Chinese
• (Visionox, Rainbow, BOE…)
Gen 4
Q1’11
Small/Medium
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15
AMOLED TVs
2007
2009
11” XEL-1 from
Sony
15” 15EL9500
from LG Display
2011
31” AMOLED TV
From LG Display
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What Did the Sony XEL-1 Prove
• Proven
• Not Proven
– Visually Superior than any
other TV
– Thin Form Factor – Desirable
– High Contrast Ratio
Differentiating
– Unbelievable Dark Levels
– Speed Matters
– OLED Manufacturing Scales
– 30” + OLED TVs are possible
at competitive pricing
– Performance in terms of
lifetime, viewing angle,
ambient contrast ratio are at
acceptable levels
– OLEDs use less power than
LCDs
NY Times – OLED TVs make traditional TVs seem as if you are looking
through a fine screen
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17
TFT LCDs Continue to Improve
Source: AUO
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18
AMOLED Pixel Efficacy
White OLED Pixel Efficacy Target @ 180 lm/W
Source:Universal Display
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19
Assumptions for Calculating Power
Light Source
Efficacy
Units
lm/W
Aperture
Sub-pixel fill factor Ratio
Voltage losses in
backplane
Polarizer Efficiency
Color Filter
Efficiency
Backlight Dimming
Saving
IR Losses in
Backplane
TFT LCD
LED
175
AMOLED
OLED
120
70%
~100%
NA
50%
50%
NA
~50%
0%/60%
50%
NA
NA
10%
Source:AUO/Universal
Display
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20
32” TV Power Projections
45
40%
TFT LCD TV
40
20%
AMOLED TV
35
Difference
0%
25
-20%
20
15
Difference
Power (W)
30
-40%
10
-60%
5
0
-80%
Display
Display +
Electronics
2013
TV
Display
Display +
TV
Electronics
2016
Source: AUO/Universal
Display/YMR
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500
50%
450
45%
400
40%
350
35%
300
30%
250
25%
200
20%
150
15%
100
10%
50
5%
0
0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Price Premium
ASP (US$)
32” Panel ASPs
2015
32" 1080p CCFL
32" 1080 LED Edge
32" 1080 LED Back
32" OLED 1920 x 1080
OLED Premium vs. Edge
OLED Premium vs. Back
Source: YMR
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22
PMOLED Displays
Category/Growth
Units (000)
Y/Y Growth Units
Revenue US$000)
Y/Y Growth Revenue
2009
2010
2011
2012
77,825
73,952
-5%
332,788
-12%
70,271
-5%
291,728
-12%
66,775
-5%
249,715
-14%
379,628
PMOLED Display Status
•
•
•
•
•
•
The first OLED displays were
produced by Pioneer in 1998
At its peak, there were over 20
PMOLED suppliers in US, Europe and
Asia
Key applications were sub-displays
and MP3 players
Maximum Size – 2”
PMOLEDs are still popular in China
Major Suppliers are
–
–
–
–
RiTdisplay
Pioneer
Visionox
TDK
PMOLED Manufacturing – Forms the
basis of Lighting
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23
OLED Lighting
Source: Ingo Maurer
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LED Replacement -- Fluorescent
• Replacement vector:
– Discounted cash flow for commercial, industrial, outdoor
– Price differential for residential
– Other factors – government subsidies, legislative action
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
LEDs required per luminaire
69
53
42
35
29
25
LED cost
86
66
53
44
33
28
LED as % of BOM
50%
45%
40%
35%
35%
35%
LED luminaire ASP
173
152
139
137
107
91
0
0
0
0
0
0
Effective LED luminaire ASP
173
152
139
137
107
91
Effective LED repl. Lamp ASP
155
136
125
123
97
82
45
36
29
25
21
19
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Output (lm)
80
100
120
140
160
180
Power (W)
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Lumens per W
80
100
120
140
160
180
62%
65%
68%
71%
74%
77%
Luminaire Direct Subsidy
Electricity cost
Luminaire Efficiency
Source: YMR
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25
FL Lamp Shipment Forecast and Penetration
6,000
500%
450%
New Luminaires (m)
5,000
400%
350%
4,000
300%
3,000
250%
200%
2,000
150%
100%
1,000
50%
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1872.6
2178.7
2493.9
2818.1
3149.2
3429.3
3633.8
3813.6
3921.9
4033.5
4148.2
Total SSL
1.8
3.8
5.9
8.6
14.1
80.7
233.4
421.5
692.0
970.7
1258.0
Share SSL
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
2.3%
6.0%
10.0%
15.0%
19.4%
23.3%
Growth SSL
0%
109%
58%
44%
65%
472%
189%
81%
64%
40%
30%
Growth Traditional
0%
16%
14%
13%
12%
9%
6%
5%
3%
3%
3%
Total Traditional
0%
Source: YMR
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26
Fluorescent vs. LED
Source: DOE
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27
OLED Lighting
•
Current Status
– >15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including
• Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
• Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
• GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R
• Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
• Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R
• Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
• Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based
• Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2nd
Gen Fab
• Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent
• Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab
• LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent
• ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R
• NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent
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28
OLED Lighting …
• OLED Demonstrations
–
–
–
–
–
–
Acuity Brands
Osram Opto
Philips
Thorne Lighting
GE
WAC
– ModisTech
• Challenges are
• Get Costs Down to <$100 per meter
• Get luminance up to 3000 to 4000 cd/m2 (displays at 500 cd/m2)
• Increase lifetime at 3000 to 4000 cd/m2 from 30k hrs to >50K hrs
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29
Sample Demonstrators
• Mitsubishi Panel features:
– Size: 14 cm*14 cm
– Efficiency (typical): 28 lm/w
– Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as
emitter)
– Types of lighting: Planar thin OLED Lighting,
partially using solution OLED,
– Color temperature tunable (2700K-6500K),
and RGB color tunable
– Lifetime(LT70, typical): 8000 hrs
– CRI (typical): 80 (R9=66)
– OLED lighting panels will use printable OLED
as under layer (=Hole injection layer)
• Schedule
– Samples – 2010
– MP -- 2011
Source: Mitsubishi
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30
Sample Demonstrators …
• Osram Panel features:
–
–
–
–
Size: 88 mm diameter x 2.1 mm
Efficiency (typical): 23 lm/w
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (2580K-3320K), and RGB color
tunable
– Luminance – 1,000 cd/m2 @ 186 mA
– Lifetime(LT70 typical): 8000 hrs
– CRI (typical): 75
• Schedule -- Shipping
Source: Osram
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31
Sample Demonstrators …
• Lumiotec Panel features:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 14.5 cm diameter x 14.5 cm x 2.3 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~25 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Luminance – 4,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~4,000 hrs @ 4,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): 80
• Schedule -- Shipping
Source: Lumiotec
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32
Sample Demonstrators …
• Philips Panel features:
–
–
–
–
Size: 11.9 cm x 3.7 cm x 2.3 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~15 lm/W
Types of materials: small molecular OLED (as emitter)
Color temperature tunable (3,200 K), and RGB color
tunable
– Luminance – 3,000 cd/m2
– Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 hrs @ 1,000 cd/m2
– CRI (typical): 80
• Schedule – Q4’10
Source: Philips
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33
Sample Prototypes
• Konica Minolta Panel features:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Size: 15.0 cm diameter x 15.0 cm x 1.5 mm
Efficiency (typical): ~64 lm/W
Types of materials: phosphorescent OLED (as emitter)
Luminance – 1,000 cd/m2
Lifetime(LT50 typical): ~10,000 hrs @ 1,000 cd/m2
CRI (typical): NA
• Schedule – 2011
Source: Konica Minolta
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34
OLED Lighting
Primary Market
•
•
Currently, OLED lighting is
limited to demonstration
programs and
decorative/architectural
lighting.
Future – 3 to 5 years away
– Fluorescent Luminaire
Replacements
– Integrated into acoustic
ceiling tiles
– Compete with LEDs
Source: Lumiotec
Source: Osram Opto
Source: Acuity Brands
Source: Lumiotec
Source: General Electric
Source: Philips
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35
Lighting Technology Performance
Characteristic
Units
Incandescent
Fluorescent
LED
OLED
Efficacy
lm/W
17
100
80-120 Cool White
65-80 Warm white
56-79
CRI
1 to 100
Form Factor
Lifetime (L70)
Dimming
Noise
Switching Lifetime
Color Tunable
K hours
80 Cool White
90 warm White
100
80-85
Bulb
Long or
compact gas
filled glass tube
1
Efficiency
Decreases
20
Efficiency
Decreases
Efficiency Increases
10-30
Efficiency
Increases
No
Poor
No
Yes
Poor
No
No
Excellent
Yes
No
Excellent
Yes
Point Source, high
intensity lamp
50-70
70-95
Diffuse thin
source, flexible,
transparent
Source: YMR
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36
OLED Materials
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2009 Material Performance
• Small Molecule
 Red (PH)
– Green (PH)
– Blue (FL)
@ 1,000 cd/m2
• Polymer
– Red
– Green
– Blue
@ 1,000 cd/m2
Lifetime (t50)
120 - 500K
150 - 500K
25K - 50K
Efficacy (cd/A)
22 – 28
63 – 69
3.3
Source
Universal
Universal
Idemitsu
Lifetime (t50)
200 - 350K
83 - 200K
8K - 26K
Efficacy (cd/A)
11 – 31
28 – 50
8.0
Source
CDT
CDT
CDT
Efficacy and Lifetime Increasing at CAGR of 10% to 25%
Source: UDC, CDT, Idemitsu Kosan
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38
Organic Materials
• Light Emitting Hosts and Dopants
–
–
–
–
–
–
Cambridge Display Technology – Polymers
DuPont – Solution Based Small Molecule Phosphorescent
Idemitsu Kosan – Small Molecule Fluorescent
Merck – Polymers, Small Molecule
Universal Display – Small Molecule Phosphorescent
DS Himetal -- Small Molecule
• Injectors/Transporters
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
BASF
Dow Chemical
H.C. Starck Group
LG Chemical
Merck
Nippon Steel Chemical Co., Ltd.
Nissan Chemical Industries
Novaled – P/N Doping
Plextronics
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39
Future for OLEDs
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Beyond 2012
• SMD looking to 8th Gen (~2200 x 2500) for TV application
– Challenges
• TFT backplane scaling
– Gen 5.5 is simply and extension of Gen 4 technology
– May not work for Gen 8
– Could require new active material
• OLED Deposition and Patterning
– Gen 5.5 is simply and extension of Gen 4 technology
– Will require new approach
» LITI
» Printing
– Current Target – 2012 –2013
• Panasonic announced 40” AMOLED TV using printing
technology by 2012/2013
• AUO likely to add capacity for large area in 2012/2013
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41
New Technology
OLEDs – New Levels of
Design
• Transparent –Permit > 70%
transmissivity, allowing products such as
see-through monitors
• Flexible – conformable, curved, rolled are
all possible; e.g. conformed to the body,
rolled up displays, lighting in various
shapes .
• Multicolor – Lighting that can change
color on demand
Source: Sony
Source: UDC
Source: Osram
Source: SMD
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42
Beyond 2012 …
•
Chinese Will Enter the Market. Companies planning to build AMOLED Fabs include:
– Visionox
• Currently producing 600k PMOLEDs on 2nd Gen (370x470)
• 2011/2012 – Building 4th Gen Fab for AMOLEDS
– BOE
• Largest TFT LCD Producer in China
• Planning 4th Gen AMOLED Fab for small/medium displays
• Purchased land for the Fab
– IRICO
• Assigned by Chinese Government as a major AMOLED Supplier
• Reportedly received $100M+ Grant from government
• Seeking to buy 4th Gen Fab from Korea or Japan
– Tienma – Hired former senior manager from AUO’s AMOLED group
– Rainbow Group
•
•
•
•
Investing 4.96b yuan
Subsidized by Chinese government
Planning on a 4th Gen AMOLED Fab
Will break ground on a facility in October
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43
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
SMD, LG Display and AUO have strong financial commitments to the
production of AMOLED Displays
Wild cards for 2012
– Panasonic
– AUO – Large Area (TVs)
– Panasonic
– Sony
– SMD – 8th Gen
– China 3 or 4 4th Gen in 2011
Expect triple digit growth for AMOLEDs as SMD expands and LG Display and
AUO enter the market
PMOLED Model is no longer sustainable; resources could be transferred.sold to
OLED lighting
OLED lighting is 3-5 years away from MP and could compete with LEDs for
replacing fluorescent technology
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44
OLED Summit
September 27-29
San Francisco
http://www.oledsworldsummit.com/
Register before September 25 and
receive a $100 discount
Questions: [email protected]
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