Transcript Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Status and Strategies Between

Energy: A Comparative Analysis
of Status and Strategies Between
India, China and the U.S.
Vikram Dalal
Whitney Professor
Electrical and Computer Engr.
Iowa State University , USA
Fellow, IEEE and American Physical Society
Introduction
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Energy is a multi-dimensional problem –
a national security problem, an
economic problem, a pollution problem
What are the dimensions of this
problem?
How are three of the major economies
coping with it?
Who is winning?
Arctic has lost ~30% of its ice in
the summer-disaster for Polar
Bears
Convenient to
Blame CO2
Is warming due to
CO2?
Don’t know!
Remember- we are in
Inter-glacial warming
period
CO2
Temp.
BUT!
Southern Hem.-sea ice may be
increasing!
What is going on?
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Northern ice is melting
Glaciers in northern hemisphere are melting
Glaciers in Southern Island of New Zealand
are increasing
Why is north rapidly melting and south not or
very slowly?
CO2 cannot do it!
IPCC models are nonsense – they do not
predict the rapid melting of northern ice at all
Probable answer:
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SOOT – C and particles, not CO2
CO2 does other harm- Changing the
acidity of the ocean – destroying corals
India
Brown/Black soot
Leads to rapid melting
Of ice
China
SOOT
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From where?
Thermal Power plants, diesel exhaust, wood
burning (stoves)
Particles deposit within one week at the poles
C absorbs sunlight – change reflectivity of ice
Positive feedback loop – water reflects less
than ice
Where?
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Northern hemisphere – India, China, Middle
East: severely polluting
China builds 88 GW of power plants a year
Southern hemisphere:
Only two major industrial countries- Brazil
and Australia
Brazil uses ethanol for cars, and hydroelectric
for power
Australia-stringent pollution controls
We have met the enemy and it
is us.
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Local problem – local solution
Severe health impacts
Health effects – every single city in India with > 1
million people has pollution levels higher than WHO
standards
~ 500,000 extra deaths in India because of air
pollution (Source: WHO)
~ 600,000 in China (Source: WHO)
Deaths in Delhi, 2.3% higher because of particulate
pollution (Source: Cropper, World Bank)
Severe impact on food production : Influence of brown
cloud on rice production in India – Reduction in sunlight
And impact of acid rain
Ref. Aufflhammer et al, PNAS, 103(2006)
Local Problem-Local solutions
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It is good for India and China and the Middle
East to reduce pollution
It will automatically reduce melting of ice
Tech. solutions exist – eg Mercedes and VW “Blue
Tech” diesels- meet California and EU standards for
particulate emissions
Electrostatic precipitators and sulfur dioxide
treatment plants for coal burning power plants
The West is way ahead of India and China on this
control
Acid rain in China (Coal!)
Energy : The Economic
Problem : Oil
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Oil – liquids- needed for transport
Cheap oil is gone
New oil is in very difficult environments
Arctic Ocean, Deep Atlantic
Brazilian field : 200 miles off Rio, in 20,000
feet deep water, another 10,000 feet below
the bottom of the ocean
Not cheap
Why is oil at $90/BBl even in recession?
Why is oil so expensive?
•Saudi Arabia cannot increase
Capacity at will
•Iraq can provide another 4-5
MBPD
•Rest of the world- not much
Saudi field (Ghawar)is tapped out-needs
secondary recovery-there is no simple way to
extract oil left-except in Venezuela-Chavez has
screwed that up
Saudis are
Building a pipeline
For injecting
Water from Gulf
Inland 200 miles
Heavy oil-in two places,CA and VZ
Canada:
352 B Tonnes
Venezuela:
349 B tonnes
Tar sand in Canada
Not cheap. About $ 80/BBl for profitable extraction.
Fundamental law of economics: Price = marginal cost
If alternatives cost ~$ 80, the oil will sell at $80
What about Venezuela?
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Who owns it?
CHINA Will!
Just look at who is giving low cost loans
to Venezuela, who is signing production
and exploration contracts in Venezuela
The US and India are out of it.
Geopolitics and China’s reserve of $ 2
trillion win!
Why is China building a port in Gwadar, Baluchistan? To get Iranian Oil.
To circumvent Strait of Malacca- a “choke” point that the US and India
can choke off
China : Energy Intensity vs. GDP
China: Electricity generation
China: Type of fuel use
China is now the world’s largest GHG emitter
US uses 1 BT of coal/year, China >2.5 BT
China: Power generation by
type
China: Transportation Energy
China: Increase in car population(Approx.)
Car Increase/year
18
16
delta cars(MM)
14
12
10
Car Incr.
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
2008
2010
2012
Car sales in China > In US for 2009 and 2010 :
Hence the Need for Oil
Power capacity (GW,2010)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
UK
Germany
India
China
US
India-energy growth
India-Power capacity
180
160
140
120
100
GW
80
60
40
20
0
Y1990
Y1999
Y2001
Y2002
Year
Y2004
Y2010
India: Disastrous record of achievement
by Government owned companies
India – New paradigm – Pvt. Sector Power
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Massive Pvt. sector involvement
Ultra plants, 4000 MW each – all thermal
Gas or coal fired
Gujarat is leading- exporting to other states
Mundra (Kutch)-Near Kandla- 2, 4000+ MW
super-critical plants [(Adani Power and
Gujarat Coastal(Tatas) ]-Coal
Adanis are ahead of schedule!
Dahej (Surat) : Another 4000 MW planned
[Gujarat Coastal Power]-Gas fired
Alstom-Siemens building 700 MW (Gas)
What about technology?
US, India, China
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Energy Efficiency
Coal and Gas Power
Automobiles
Refineries
Solar
Wind
Carbon Intensity vs GDP
Significant
Opportunity
To reduce
Energy/unit of
GDP-factors of
2-5
Energy conservation-example:
Power Plants efficiency
Typical modern US coal fired plant 40%
 Modern Hitachi plant (Japan) ~
49.8%(Highest in the world), ~ca. 2002
 Advanced combined cycle:
Coal gasification – use gas in turbines
Use exhaust from turbine to preheat water for
steam turbine
~ 56-60% efficiency possible-already achieved
in Germany, Japan
BHEL is setting up one combined cycle plant in
Rajasthan
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Super-critical steam plants
China and Japan beating everyone
China is exporting this technology! To India!
India is increasing efficiency –
Pvt sector
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Adanis: From China
Tatas: from Toshiba
Combined cycle (Gas turbines + steam
turbines) : BHEL, Siemens-Alstom, and
GE
Coal plants: Increasing efficiency
reduces particulates and CO2 and SO2
emission
WHAT IS IGCC
3 BLOCKS IN COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT
NG
OIL
STACK
GT POWER
GAS
TURBINE
GAS
EXHAUST
ST POWER
STEAM
HRSG
STEAM
TURBINE
CLEAN FUEL GAS
COAL
GAS CLEAN-UP
GASIFICATION
2 BLOCKS IN COAL GASIFICATION PLANT
China-New IGCC Plant
Combined cycle – India is quite good in
this for newer plants
BHEL, Siemens-Alstom, GE
New Power Sources
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Solar
Wind
Solar Thermal-Electric – US
leads
Solar Heat: Archimedes burning Roman
Fleet in Syracuse harbor:
Why not power from heat?
Painting From Galleria Uffizi, Florence
World’s largest operating solarelectric plant 64 MW (in Nevada)solar thermal electric
Each shiny tube is a linear parabolic trough
focusing sunlight on a tubeheat up water to produce steam-run a turbine
Europe planning to set up large plants in North Africa,
transmit power through Strait of Gibraltar
India – Exceptionally good
conditions in Kutch
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Solar intensity excellent
Proximity to cooling water
Can be 100,000 MW+
Schematic diagram of a solar cell
(Photovoltaic – PV- device)
Solar Photovoltaic Energy
Conversion
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China leads- world’s largest PV
manufacturer
Market ~ 8-9 GW in 2010
That is 8-9 nuclear plants/year
China and the world – PV
production
China’s target for solar PV
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2 GW in 2011
20 GW in 2020
India likely to be ~ 1GW in ~2014
India- PV
PV Power
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Y2009
Y2011
Y2014
Gujarat is leading, ~716 MW planned
Li Batteries – Hybrid cars
Li battery pack for Nissan Leaf
BYD Plug-In hybrid – China
China beat everyone, including
Toyota – first plug-in hybrid
Li battery market share
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2010
0
Japan
Korea
2002
China
Rest
China: Wind and solar
resource
Wind
Comparison of wind capacity:
China plans 200 GW of wind by 2020
45
40
35
30
25
China
India
US
20
15
10
5
US
0
2005
India
2006
2007
2008
China
2009
2010
US-Major investment in Li
batteries- wants 25% share
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$500 Million + from government
A123 systems
Large plants being set up for the hybrid
car market
A123 – started with $100k grant in
2000 from US govt., Now a multibillion$ company
Where is India? Not there at all.
Hybrid cars for India?
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Where are they?
Perfect for India- recharge every time
you brake.
How much saving in petrol?
Why not diesel hybrids?
Where are the Li battery
manufacturers?
Biofuels - future
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Not food based
Synthetic biology
CO2 + sunlight + water + bacteria =
alcohol
Cellulosic conversion – learn the secret
of termites – wood waste into sugars
and alcohol
Synthetic biology in the US
(US leads the world)
H from water using cyanobacteria: Synthetic e-coli for conversion
Of cellulosic waste into
J.Craig Venter Institute
biodiesel- UC Berkeley
(Human genome fame scientist)
US Biofuels program –
advanced technology
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$ 500 Million – UC Berkeley and Illinois from BP for
synthetic biology
$125 million – CalTech + Berkeley from US government
for solar fuels
Exxon- major program($600 million) with
Venter:Synthetic Genomics on fuel from algae
Conoco-Phillips : $25 MM at Iowa on cellulosic ethanol
Where is India’s comparable investment?
Where is Reliance?
What would $ 1 billion invested in biotechnology (instead of a home) have done for
India?
China – Synthetic biofuels
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Not there in biological research yet
Status of PV R&D
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US leads in inorganic thin films, in organic PV
China leads in manufacture of crystalline Si,
but not in R&D
Costs coming down very rapidly
India is nowhere in the research field – IIT-B
just started a major PV project, and IITKanpur has a major organic PV project
We are decades behind the U.S.
China making massive investments in R&D
Critical Research Directions for
India
India is far behind
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Solar Thermal Power Plants
Efficient plug-in hybrid cars
IGCC coal plants
Solar PV with concentrators
Synthetic biology for biofuels
Long-life batteries
Efficient Forestry
China on the technology front
in energy – we are heading
for a major economic
And environmental disasterHard science and engineering
are needed- not financial
engineering