Transcript Joan Ogden

KEEP MOVING,
TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Thursday 11 October 2012
Vehicle and Fuel
Technology Options for
Sustainable Transportation
Prof. Joan Ogden
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Global transportation energy use (2005)
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Current fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Future fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Vehicle commercialization timeline
Source: Cunningham, Gronich and Nicholas, presented at the NHA Meeting, March 2008.
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Historical data:
major US transportation infrastructures
time constants: 30-70 years
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
UC DAVIS RESEARCH
Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)
Single Pathway Analyses and Comparisons
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricity
Fossil Fuels
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
H2-ICE
Vehicles
Bio-ICE
Vehicles
2nd Gen
Biofuels
Battery-electric
Plug-in hybrids
Bus. as usual
Low-carbon
fuels (incl.
CCS)
Consumer Demand & Behavior
Infrastructure Modeling
Vehicle Technology Evaluation
Energy, Environmental & Economic Cost Analysis
Scenarios & Transition Strategies
Policy & Business Decisions
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Findings
• A revolution in transportation technology will be needed to meet
societal goals. It appears to be technically feasible to cut
transportation- related GHG emissions by 50-80% by 2050.
• A portfolio strategy is essential, combining energy efficiency,
travel reduction and adoption of alternative fuels and vehicles.
• No single fuel or vehicle dominates the future. Instead, a diverse
mix of fuels in different regions & transport applications.
• Investments needed to launch new clean vehicles
and fuels << money flows in the current energy system.
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Recommendations
• Near term actions to reduce transportation-related GHG
emissions and oil use & enable deep cuts by 2050.
- Increase efficiency of ICEVs, adopt lower-carbon fuels;
- Support emerging electric drive transportation technologies
(batteries and fuel cells);
- Continued R&D on “game changing” technologies;
- City-scale demonstrations to accelerate technology
learning at the system level.
• Ongoing science to assess impacts of different choices:
GHG emissions, oil use, and water, land, air and materials.
• Strong and consistent policies.
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© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
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‘Group ‘EEAC-RLI Conference 2012 on sustainable mobility’
11 October 2012