Transcript Director-Agriculture, Govt of Gujarat`s Presentation in

Current Scenario
of Cotton cultivation & its impacts.
Venue: CEE,Ahmedabad
Date: 6/10/2007
Dr.R.A.Sherasiya
Director of Agriculture
Gujarat State, Gandhinagar
Gujarat Agriculture at a Glance cont..
General Information

Agriculture

Total Geographical Area : 196 lakh hectares


Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares

Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares

Agro Climatic Zones: 8
Area under Irrigation in Gujarat

Total irrigated area: 41.11 lakh hectares ( 41.73 % against net area
sown 98.51 lakh hectares . (2003-04)

After completion of major and medium Projects – 64 lakh hectares
(64.97% against Net Area Sown 98.51 lakh hectares )
Source SCR 2003-04
Land Utilisation in Gujarat
Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares, Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares
18.54
Net Area
Sown
11
.4
5
Area in lakh ha.
26.08
98.51
8.50
68
5.
0.1 19.
77
1
Forest
Area under non agri
Barren & unculturable
Permenent pasture
Culturable waste
Other fallow
Current Fallow
Net area sown
Cropping pattern ..
Area ( In Lakh Hact)
CROP / YEAR
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Actual
Actual
Estimated
Estimate
d
Food grains
40.34
36.61
40.44
43.61
Oilseeds
29.5
29.77
32.82
33.35
Cotton
16.41
19.06
20.77
23.90
Cotton
24%
Oil seed
35%
Food
grain
43%
Yr. 2006-07
Past scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state
Sr.
No.
1
1950-1959
Avg. Area
( lakh ha.)
15.03
2
1960-1969
17.39
15.48
151
3
1970-1979
19.06
19.46
4
5
1980-1989
1990-1999
13.10
16.18
14.95
23.93
174
210
272
Decade
Avg.Production Avg.Productivity
( lakh bales)
Kg/ha.(lint)
9.30
105
10
14
.9
5
13
.1
15
19
.0
6
20
17
.3
9
Area
15
.0
3
Area in Lakh Ha.
25
5
0
50s
60s
70s
Decade
80s
90s
Recent scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state
2000-2001
2001-2002
Area
( lakh ha.)
16.15
17.50
Production
( lakh bales)
11.61
17.02
Productivity
Kg/ha.(lint)
122
165
3
2002-2003
16.34
16.84
175
4
2003-2004
16.41
40.26
417
5
2004-2005
19.66
55.43
479
6
2005-2006
20.77
73.79
604
7
2006-07
23.90
87.87
625
Sr.No.
Year
1
2
IN 2002-03, INTRODUCTION OF BT. COTTON
Over view of Cotton in Gujarat
 Considerable area since long
 Response of new varieties on Area shown
Desi  Indo American (50s) Hybrid (70)
 Decline in Area in 80s
 Constant Increase in yield till 90s
 Hybrid performed well during 90s (356 kg lint/ha in 1997-98)
 Reduced yield in 2000-01,2001-02, 2002-03
(Boll worm menace)
 Sudden hike in area & Yield form 2003-04
(Introduction of Bt)
Pre-B.T. 2002-03
Kutchh
Major Cotton growing districts
(Area >25000 ha.)
Mahesana sabarkantha
A’bad
Surendranagar
Jamnagar
Vadodara
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Bharuch
Post -B.T. 2007-08
Amreli
B.K.
11 Districts
Patan
Mahesana sabarkantha
Kutchh
Gandhinagar
A’bad Kheda
Surendranagar
Jamnagar
Vadodara
Rajkot
Bhavnagar
Amreli
Juangadh
17 Districts
Bharuch
Narmada
N
District-wise Area under Cotton Crop during Kahrif -07(2007-08)
Sr.No.
District
Target
Sown
% area sown
Area
Area
against target
1
Ahmedabad
1750
1876
107.20
2
Banaskantha
125
307
245.60
3
Vadodara
1750
1694
96.80
4
Broach
1550
1392
89.81
5
Narmada
450
442
98.22
6
Gandginagar
275
324
117.82
7
Kheda
300
258
86.00
8
Anand
5
37
740.00
9
Mehsana
450
438
97.33
10
Patan
1000
635
63.50
11
Panchmahals
85
65
76.47
12
Dahod
50
6
12.00
13
Sabarkantha
800
1018
127.25
14
Surat
98
90
91.84
15
Amreli
1450
2339
161.31
16
Bhavnagar
2375
3139
132.17
17
Jamnagar
1000
1903
190.30
18
Junagadh
350
607
173.43
19
Probandar
65
135
207.69
20
Kutchh
410
569
138.78
21
Rajkot
2550
3509
137.61
22
Surendranagar
3900
4385
112.44
Total
20788
25168
121.07
Why cotton in Gujarat ?
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Suitable Soil type & climate
Trade, processing & Industrial Support since long
Business instincts & Higher adoptability of farmers
Crop sustain long dry spell & variable monsoon
pattern
Better suitable for rain-fed farming (only 33 % irrigation)
Better income in adverse condition
Lucrative Price
Research & Extension support
Species suitability for variable climate
( Arid / Semi arid / Mild tropic)
Prospect of Cotton depends on..
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Tread / Industrial support
Price policy & export
Sustainable yield
Insect / pest infestation
Cost of cultivation
Irrigation facility
Research, Extension & Market support
WTO policy
Lint quality
New technology like Transgenic cotton in field of
Biotic and A-biotic Stress.
World trade (In M.bale of 170 kg)
Year
Cotton Production
Consumption
Export
2000-01
114.79
119.25
34.45
2001-02
127.48
122.25
37.65
2002-03
114.23
127.43
39.28
2003-04
123.04
127.55
42.77
2004-05
155.85
140.72
45.23
2005-06
144.57
148.03
52.81
 Production is unstable
 Consumption & export has increasing trend
Source : fas.usda
Cotton market prices
(Rs.Per quintal)
Sr.No.
Year
Support price
Rs.
Market prices
Rs.
1.
2001-2002
1840
1650-1825
2.
2002-2003
1860
2025-2395
3.
2003-2004
1910
2239-2900
4.
2004-2005
1960
1620-2130
5.
2005-2006
1985
1950-2149
6.
2006-2007
2005
2150-2500
7.
2007-2008
2055
-
Unstable price May adversely affect cotton cultivation
Cost of cultivation of Cotton
Sr.
No.
Component
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I
Seed
Insecticide/Pesticide
Cost – C1
Cost – C2
Yield/hect. In qtl.
Return/hac. Over Cost-C1
Return/hac. Over Cost-C2
Cost of prod. /qtl. Over Cost-C1
Cost of prod. / qtl. Over
Cost-C2
(C1+Management charges)
Cost of cultivation (in Rs./hect.)
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
2006-07
960
1867
29901
32891
13.33
-36
-3026
2202.70
2427.01
3063
1850
41249
45374
23.03
7832
3707
1759.92
1939.03
1410
2174
33145
36460
15.90
875
-2440
2044.97
2253.46
1900
1779
35749
39324
19.55
5016
1441
1793.40
1976.27
Year 2004-05
Increases seed cost but reduce pesticides cost
• Increases Yield & Increases Net Return
•
1900
1779
35749
39324
19.55
5016
1441
1793.40
1976.27
Different
count group cotton
required
Requirement
of lint
Sl.
No.
Count group
% cotton
required
Present
species
1.
1s-10s
18.56
Herb, Arb, aa
2.
11s-20s
19.30
HH,Herb, ah
3.
21s-30s
18.81
Hirs, HH,ah
4.
31s-40s
26.05
Hirs,HH
5.
41s-60s
12.97
Hirs,HH
6.
61s-80s
2.33
HH, HB, Barb
7.
81s-100s
2.00
HB Barb
8.
101s-120s
2.00
HB, Barb
100.00
Current bt. Hybrid have potential to meet 50 -60 % requirement of lint
PROSPECT OF COTTON IN GUJARAT
 Dependable crop since long
 Increasing world Consumption & export
 Better price support
 Increasing net return
 Catch major quality segment of lint
 Increasing Irrigation facilities
(SSNL / Farm pond / Water conservation / Micro-irrigation)
 Increasing Research / Extension support
STORY OF BT. Cotton
 Introduction in 2002-03
Sr.
No.
Year
Varieties in
market
Gene
1
2002-03
3
BG-I
2
2003-04
3
BG-I
3
2004-05
4
BG-I
4
2005-06
12
BG-I & BG-II
5
2006-07
27
BG-I, BG-II& Fusion
6
2007-08
72
BG-I, BG-II& Fusion
Adoption of technology
Bt. cotton packets sold in Gujarat
4000000
Sr.
no
Year
No. of
packets
sold
Packets Sold
3500000
1
2002-03
18587
2
2003-04
103740
3
2004-05
333402
4
2005-06
368812
5
6
2006-07
2007-08
1007442
3478490
(Expectation)
Packets in No's
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
Years
2006-07
2007-08
'03-04
'04-05
'05-06
23.9
19.06
16.41
16.85
'02-03
20.77
47.55
73.79
'01-02
16.35
17.03
40.27
'00-01
17.49
11.61
16.15
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
87.87
Impact of Bt. Cotton on Production in Gujarat
'06-07'
AREA (in lakh ha.)
Production (in lakh bales)
Indirect consequences of Bt Cotton
1. Insecticide use decline; Miscellaneous insects of minor
importance such as bugs would create problems.
2. Reduced pyrethroids: Pink bollworm & Spodoptera likely to reemerge. H. armigera & whitefly backseat
3. Susceptibility to sucking pests –because of susceptible exotic
donor parent !! (Coker 312)
4. Reduction in efforts for conventional breeding approaches for
OTHER pest management.
5. Shift in focus; away from research on other pest management
methods
SWOT analysis of Bt crop
STRENGTH
WEAKNESS
Huge investment
Lack of location specific Package of
Increasing area
Practices
 Lack of Coordination among various
agencies
 Competition & Lots of variety
 Lack of proper awareness in public
OVER COME
 Higher seed prices
Effective against ball worm
 Target specific
Reduce use of insecticides
SUSTAIN
OPPORTUNITY
THREATS
> 20 Lakh area under cotton
Development of Resistance in pest
 Innovative & adoptive farmers
 Resurgence of minor pest
 Increases area under irrigation
 Spurious seed
 > 20 cotton growing dist.
Can reduce cost of cultivation
CAPTURE
MITIGATE
SUSTAIN
OVER COME
CAPTURE
MITIGATE
BY Effective ..




Research
Extension
Law enforcement policy
Coordination
Bt. Cotton in Gujarat




Area of Bt.Hybrid Kharif-07
(13.96 Lakh Ha.)
Impact of Bt.
+
10 Lakh Ha.
Area of Bt.Hybrid
Khari-06
( 4.03 Lakh ha.)