Transcript 南京大学海洋科学研究院、海岸与海岛教育部重点实验室简介

Valuing scarcity of coastal
wetland – a conceptual model
(unfinished)
Dr ZOU Xinqing
Background
• National level: 120 million ha cultivated
land – red line
• Rapid urbanization process in recent 2
decades
• Jiangsu province: 0.18 million ha land
resources are needed before 2020.
Reclamtion plan before 2020
Yancheng coastal wetland
Land use changes in YNNR
KE, C.-Q., 2011, Regional Environmental Change, 11, 161-173
Land use changes in YNNR
KE, C.-Q., 2011, Regional Environmental Change, 11, 161-173
Valuing eco-services
• 生态系统服务功能估算的背景
– 上世纪70年代(Gosselink, J. G., Odum, E. P.
and Pope, R. M. 1974. Meo, M.,et al 1975. )
– Costanza, 1997的生态系统评估：
• 17项生态服务功能，包括气体调节、干扰调节、废
弃物处理、养分循环等等
• 地球生态系统生态服务功能总价:33万亿美元
• 其中63%来自海洋（20.9万亿美元）
• 其中10.6万亿来自海岸带
Spartina flat
Reclamation
Coastal wetland eco-services
• Provisioning services
• Regulating services
– Heay metal absorbance
– Nutrient absorbance (N, P)
– Coastal zone robustness
– Atmosphere regulation
• Cultural services
• Supporting services
Provisioning services
Vpro=2439～4146 $/hm2/yr
N, P absorbance through
sediments
TN %
TOC %
0.2
0.4
0.6
TP μg/g
0.02 0.04 0.06
Clay %
600 650 700 750
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
10
20
20
20
20
30
30
30
40
40
40
40
50
50
50
50
60
60
60
60
深
度
cm 30
4
8
12
N, P absorbance flux (g/m2/yr)
Sample
TOC
TN
TP
ZWG01
201.02
22.83
23.39
ZWG02
242.77
30.77
32.61
ZWG03
151.35
17.67
24.09
ZWG04
225.08
28.29
25.43
N, P absorbance through
vegetation (Spartina alterniflora)
• 互花米草植被
– 根部对TN的吸收是12.99～18.05 g/m2/yr，
– 地上部分对TN的吸收是16～27.87 g/m2/yr；
– 根部对TP的吸收是1.68～1.98 g/m2/yr，
– 地上部分对TP的吸收是3.39～6.08 g/m2/yr。
• 植被对TN的吸收总量是28.99～45.92
g/m2/yr，
• 对TP吸收的总量是5.08～8.07 g/m2/yr。
Valuing N, P absorbance
• Vnu=∑(Fi×Ti)
– 其中Vnu是湿地吸收富营养物的经济价值，单位
是：$/hm2/yr
– Fi 是湿地吸收富营养物i的通量，单位是
g/hm2/yr
– Ti 是处理富营养物i的平均成本，单位是 $/g
• 互花米草湿地对N、P吸收的总的经济价值
是360～4366 $/ hm2/yr
Coastal zone robustness
互花 米 草宽度（ m）
海堤高度（ m）
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
200
400 600
7.5m高
800
互花 米 草宽度（ m）
海堤高度（ m）
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
100
200 300
7.5m高
6.9m高
6.9m高
6.3m高
6.3m高
5.7m高
5.7m高
5.1m高
4.5m高
每10m互花 米 草消浪6cm
5.1m高
4.5m高
每10m互花 米 草消浪12cm
400
Coastal zone robustness
• 114.6×7560×2.5= 2,165,940 RMB
Atmosphere regulation
• 植被每生产1 g干物质可以吸收固定
CO21.63 g，同时释放1.19 g O2
– 固定二氧化碳的净价值为1405 $/hm2/yr～1852
$ /hm2/yr
– 释放氧气的经济价值是2712 $/hm2/yr～3608
$/hm2/yr
• 调节大气的总经济价值Vreg是4117～5460
$/ hm2/yr。
Direct and indirect market value
• Provisioning: 20,000～34,000 RMB /ha•yr
• Heavy metal absorbance: 1660～14700 RMB/
ha•yr
• Nutrient absorbance: 2,960～35,800 RMB/ ha•yr
• Coastal zone robustness: 5,730～11,460
RMB/ha•yr
• Atmosphere regulation: 33,760～44,760 RMB/
ha•yr
• TEV: (2012): 2,899,058 RMB / ha (Inflation
rate：0.4, discount rate: 0.5 )
Challenges:
• If the value is true, do we need to protect
the coastal wetland ecosystem?
• If the value is not true, what if missing?
TEV
Vuse
Direct use
Indirect use
Vnon-use
Option value
Bequest value
Existence value
Non-market value
• Original non-market value：CVM
• Related oefficient with the ecosystem
scarcity: a
• Non-market value（a=0.2）：
aK=￥579,811.6/ha
A. Kontogianni, 2012, Ecological Economics
Total value of eco-services
• TV=Market V (K)+Non-market V (aK)
=2,899,058+579,811.6= 3,478,870 RMB/ha
V
Is the problem sorted out?
p
U
Critical Threshold
Supply B
Supply A
$
Marginal Value
TEV
Flow of Services
Limburge et al. (Limburge et al. 2002)
A. Smooth response function
Value of
service
B. Catastrophic response function
Value of avoiding
threshold
C. Tracking the approach to catastrophic threshold
Stress
K.E. Limburg et al. 2002
Valuing scarcities of the wetland
eco-services – a conceptual model
V
u
p
p
p
aK
V  Vi   ( K 
)du
( p  u) / p
i 1
0
V：TV
K：Market V
ak：Non-market V
p：Critical Threshold
Conclusion
• The value of ecosystem’s scarcity is dynamic. It
positively related to the scarcity of coastal
wetland ecosystem.
• Valuing the scarcity of coastal wetland properly
may assist the smart use of coastal resources.
For instance, it may help to identify the
threshould of different exploitation activities.
• Coastal wetland’s critical threshould (p) need to
be further discussed.