Transcript How to Calculate BM/OM Ratio? — Theoretical Basis and Its

Released!
How to Calculate BM/OM Ratio?
— Theoretical Basis and Its Application —
Climate Experts Ltd.
Naoki Matsuo
[email protected]
What information is needed?
Conventional Methodologies
Only calculation method of EF (emission factor) is
provided
Shall the Methodology provide
Little consideration of
the steps “How to identify
“What is the Baseline Scenario”
the Baseline Scenario” ?
Important Information:
Which measures (plants) would be used to provide
the electricity to meet the demand?
Capacity/Fuel/Operation/When?
(for BM)
How? (for OM)
A Simple Example I
Scenarios:
PJS:
BLS:
NG: 100 MW (EFNG)
Coal: 60 MW (EFCoal)  identification needed!
• This means that
– the project replaces the installation plan of
60 MW coal fired power plant, or
– postpone the power development plan,
which may be by coal fired power plant(s)
with 60% of the project capacity (for a while).
A Simple Example II
PJS BLS
OM
Build Margin Component:
60 MW / 100 MW = 0.6
Operating Margin Component:
(100 MW – 60 MW) / 100 MW = 0.4
BM
NG Coal
100 MW
Emission Factor of the Displacement Effect
EFDisplacement = 0.4·EFGrid(OM) + 0.6·(EFCoal – EFNG)
Emission Reductions = ElectricityNG· EFDisplacement
Assumption
Operation pattern of Coal and NG are identical
60 MW
Formula
CAP ADD  CAP
 

CAP ADD PJ
BL
PJ
w
OM
ADD



CAP ADD 
 
PJ 
CAP ADD 
BL
w
BM
Assumption

Operation pattern of PJ and BL plants are identical
In case operation pattern is different, generated electricity
is used, instead of capacity.
(not easy to obtain BL plant’s electricity generation
because it depends on the grid operation method)
Theory I
Theory II
BE 
PE 
ER 



BL
E BAU
dE EF BAU (E ) 
0
PJ
E BAU
0
dE EF BAU ( E ) 
BL
E BAU
E BAU
PJ

dE EF BAU ( E) 
E ADD


BL
E ADD
0
E ADD
dE EF ADD
0
dE EF ADD
PJ
dE EFADD (E )
BL
(E )
PJ
PJ
E ADD
BL
 
PJ
(E )
BL
E ADD
0
dE  EFADD (E )
 OM
PJ
PJ
PJ
ER
 ( E ADD  E ADD BL ) EF BAU ( E BAU )  EF ADD PJ ( E ADD ) 
ER
BM
 E ADD
PJ
 E ADD
PJ
 E ADD
PJ
 E ADD
PJ
 E ADD
PJ


 



PJ
 E ADD
E ADD
BL
PJ
) 
 


EF BAU ( E BAU
PJ
)  EF ADD PJ ( E ADD ) 
PJ
w OM  EF OM


 




 



( E ADD



PJ 


ADD

BL 


PJ 


ADD
EF
1
E
E ADD
E
w B M  EF
BM
E ADD
BL
0
BM
dE  EF ADD ( E )

E 0  E
E0
dE EF (E )   E EF ( E0 )
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